AM Comments July 25 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. CBOT markets are mostly lower to start out end of week trading following what has been another uneventful overnight session. New crop beans have made new lows for the week early this morning, while the corn and wheat markets are each similarly lower on little to no volume. Whether it be end-of-summer vacations or just a lack of news in the markets, the decline in trading interest this week has been noticeable, and is likely to continue for at least another day on Friday with there once again being little in the way of new news. The bottom line is traders want to know what August weather is going to be before placing any new bets, which tells us sideways/choppy markets are likely to continue. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower also. Products are lower, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are quietly higher, crude oil futures are up 30 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 30 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 10 points.
Today's Reports: Monthly Durable Goods Orders; Monthly Cattle on Feed; CFTC Commitment of Traders
- The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly Cattle on Feed report later this afternoon at 2pm central time; traders see the report showing the US feedlot herd as of July 1 at 11.21 mil head, which would be down about 1% from last year. Placements in July are seen at 1.535 mil head, down 2% from last year, while marketings are seen at 1.718 mil head, down 4% from last year.
- The US Wheat Quality Council's spring wheat crop tour in North Dakota concluded yesterday; the tour estimated yields in the state at 49.0 bu/acre, which is down from last year's record estimate of 54.5 but still up from the tour's five-year average of 44.6. USDA currently sees North Dakota spring wheat yields at 59 bu/acre, which would be equal to last year.
- The weekly crop update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday showed corn harvest advancing another 5% on the week to 84% complete, which continues to be well ahead of average but has now fallen slightly behind last year's pace. The report also showed wheat planting reaching 96% complete, up just 3% from the week prior.
- In a monthly update, the European Commission said they see the EU's total grain production in the 2025/26 season at 278.4 MMTs, which is down from their June estimate of 282.9 MMTs. Corn saw the biggest decline of all the grains from last month, with production estimates dropping 4.5 MMTs to 60.1 MMTs. Soft wheat production was seen dropping from 128.2 MMTs last month to 127.3 MMTs now.
- Weekly data from French crop consultancy FranceAgriMer on Friday showed the country's wheat harvest as of Monday at 86% complete, which is up from 71% the week prior and some 50% ahead of pace on the same day last year. Hot/dry weather recently helped to speed harvest operations, but also led to a decline in corn condition ratings, which fell 3% during the week to 69% in the good/very good condition.
- Agronomists in Australia remain concerned over wheat production prospects in the current season despite recent rains that given a boost to some areas. According to one source, "The rain was just hand-to-mouth. It's gotten us out of jail for a couple weeks, but that's about it." ABARES (the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics) in a June forecast said they see production in the season don 10% from last year, though if accurate, this would still be above the average of the last ten years.
- The USDA's monthly livestock slaughter report, released yesterday, showed US red meat production in the month of June at 4.224 bil lb, which was down 3.5% from May and also down 1% from last year. Beef production was seen down 2% from last year at 2.087 bil lbs, while pork production was seen up just fractionally from last year at 2.123 bil lbs. To view the full report, please click here.
- Lastly from the USDA this morning, weekly barge data shows shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending July 19th were up more than 30% from the week prior at 731k tons; corn shipments in the week were up 45% at 387k tons, and soybean shipments in the week were up 38% at 299k tons. STL barge rates were up $2.27 on the week to $18.23/short ton.
- Though the equity world looks to be fairly quiet to wrap up the week this week on Friday, that calm will likely not last through next week, as the calendar is packed with potential market-moving events. The week will see several important US labor market updates, as well as the Fed's July FOMC policy meeting and then Trump's August 1 tariff deadline to wrap up the week on Friday.
- Active weather looks to continue for the upper Midwest to end the week and through the weekend the next couple days, as storm systems continue working their way east through KS/NE/IA/MO and over into northern IL and IN. The EU model this morning sees totals ranging from 0.5-2" generally speaking, with the band of heaviest precip still fairly narrow and similar to yesterday. Temperatures, meanwhile, will be slightly more mild today, before heat is seen returning for the whole of the Midwest over the weekend and into next week.
- The extended forecast through the first part of August has trended drier in the northeast the past few days, but otherwise shows a similar outlook for the Corn Belt as to what was seen earlier in the week. Both the EU and GFS are wetter further to the south and east, but see at least average if not above average moisture conditions through most of the southern and western parts of the Corn Belt.
- Stay cool and have a great weekend!