Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $4.01 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.20 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -19, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported daily sales flashes of 135,000 MTs of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/26 marketing year. The sale was initially reported by USDA to China, and was later corrected.

• Exporters also reported sales of 284,196 MTs of corn received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations; of the total, 83,956 MTs is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year, and 200,240 MTs is for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

• On the weekly side, this morning's export sales report for the week ending July 17th showed old crop corn sales at 643k MTs, which was towards the upper end of trade expectations. Featured buyer in the week was Mexico at 346,200 MTs, while unknown destinations bought 49,200 MTs.

• New crop sales in the week totaled 734k MTs, which was also towards the upper end of trade expectations. Featured buyer here was Japan at 171,800 MTs, while unknown destinations in the week bought 349,700 MTs.

Summary:

The corn market finished higher on Thursday following a small bout of short covering that was the result of an incorrect sales announcement this morning to China. The news was short lived with the USDA issuing a correction announcement shortly after 9am central time, but was enough to see values close higher on the day nonetheless. Otherwise, there continues to be a lack of fresh information to chew on, with volume staying curiously low. We have little idea of what may be on the horizon, but markets are eerily quiet right now with a typically volatile harvest period shortly ahead.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.04 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.24 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $269.70, down $2.30/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 56.67, up 0.53 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -20, down 3 cents; new contract low at -20 3/4

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly old crop soybean export sales this morning for the week ending July 17th were seen at 161k MTs, which was also within trade expectations. Featured buyer in the week was the Netherlands at 116,800 MTs, while unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 180k MTs.

• New crop sales in the week were below trade expectations at 239k MTs, with the featured buyer being Mexico at 62,600 MTs; unknown destinations were buyers of 120k MTs in the week. China continues to be completely absent from the US new crop soybean program.

Summary:

Another quiet day in the soybean market on Thursday, as aside from a last-minute flurry of buying, values did next to nothing for most of the morning hours. China continues to be completely absent from the US new crop soybean market, which is an ongoing story that we do not see having a short term end. US beans are priced below those out of Brazil, yet Chinese buyers continue to book the more expensive supplies as a show of political resistance to President Trump's tariff threats. A rumored meeting between President Trump and President Xi is still a long way off, with any kind of good will purchases likely still several weeks away at best.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.41 1/2, up 1 cent
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.61 1/4, unchanged
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -19 3/4, up 1 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Wheat sales in this morning's weekly export sales report were seen at 712k MTS in the week ending July 17th, which was well above trade expectations and the highest weekly sales figure since March. Featured buyers in the week were Indonesia (117,200 MTs), Taiwan (92,100 MTs), and Mexico (86,500 MTs), while unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 88,300 MTs.

• Futures could have been seeing some measure of support this week from harvest delays in Russia caused by heavy rainfall in some local areas. Forecasts though show drier conditions ahead, likely meaning the delays will be short-lived.

Summary:

It was another quiet day in the wheat market on Thursday, with futures prices doing little of note throughout the session. Aside from harvest updates out of Russia, traders will take interest in the US Wheat Quality Council's spring wheat tour results that are due out later this afternoon to wrap up the week on Friday.

In Other News

• Livestock markets finished Thursday lower:
• August live cattle: $225.80, down $1.22
• August feeder cattle: $328.90, down $2.62
• August lean hogs: $108.20, down 27 cents

• Outside markets traded mixed/quiet throughout the day on Thursday:
• Crude oil futures: up 60-90 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 240 points, the S&P500 index is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 100 points; new contract highs again today for the S&P
• US $ Index: up 20 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Weather forecasts through mid-day on Thursday were like the morning runs, and continue to show good rain potential for a fairly band through the central and west-central parts of the Corn Belt through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

• Temperatures meanwhile look to stay on the warm side for another several days across most of the Midwest, before models are in good agreement on cooler air then returning by the end of next week. The ongoing mix of rain and heat is creating humid conditions during the daytime that has been very good for crop development.

? Extended Forecast:

• Extended range precip forecasts are continuing to have a difficult time agreeing on an outlook through the first week of August, with today's runs showing wetter conditions in the southeast during the period as opposed to more the east-central US which was the case on Wednesday.

• Also little new in the two week temperature outlook, with both the EU and GFS models showing areas generally west of the Rockies staying warm, while the eastern 2/3's of the US returns to a cooler pattern the first week of August.