AM Comments July 24 2025

Posted on Jul 24 at 07:16

Good morning. Following another day of lower closes on Wednesday, ag markets are higher this morning with soybeans the upside leader on mid-week strength in Argentina's markets. There were rumors on Wednesday that the government there was considering possibly lowering export taxes again, which would be a plausible explanation for the late morning sell-off yesterday due to the likelihood that farmers there would move additional supplies. However, before this announcement, Argentine values were up some $6/ton or roughly 2%, which is really the only thing new to justify the strength in Chicago this morning. Aside from this, Thursday looks to be another day of choppy, low volume price action, with there again being little new of note this morning on the crop production or weather fronts. Stay patient, and don't get caught trading yesterday's news for too long; like we mentioned yesterday, a fair amount of the bearish supply side info as it stands today has been priced in to a large extent. Corn futures this morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around $1/ton and soybean oil is up 5-10 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 20-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 200 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 70 points.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims

 

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending July 17th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 100k-800k MTs and old crop soybean sales between 100k-350k MTs. For new crop, corn sales are seen between 400k-800k MTs, soybean sales are seen between 250k-500k MTs, and wheat sales are seen between 250k-500k MTs.

 

• Day two of the US Wheat Quality Council's North Dakota crop tour showed potential that was a little bit down from what was seen on day one, with surveys from 139 fields showing an average yield of 47.1 bu/acre; this figure is down from day one's 50.0 number, and also down from 53.7 bu/acre on the same route last year. The group will give final yield estimates for the crop later this afternoon.

 

• A senior economic trade advisor to Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Thursday that his country has not removed tariffs on imports of US corn, rice, sugar, fish, pork, and chicken despite announcements of a trade agreement between the two countries earlier this week. The source added that a technical working group was still finalizing details of the agreement, with no further timeline given as to when it could possibly be completed.

 

• It would appear as though the June trial run of Chinese purchases of Argentine soy meal was at least somewhat successful, as buyers this week have inked deals to import an additional 30k tons of the product for September shipment according to sources familiar with the matter. Argy meal prices are currently below those of domestic Chinese values, making imports an attractive option for buyers still concerned about possible supply shortages due to US-China tensions later down the road.

 

• China's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on Wednesday said at a meeting with executives from several food groups that he was looking at new policies to prevent significant fluctuations in hog production and sharp price declines, as well as add competitiveness to the industry. He further added that measures should be taken to "reasonably cull the sow population, reduce secondary fattening, and strictly control new capacity" to address the issue of persistent oversupply in recent years that has led to declining prices.

 

• As part of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Australia, sources are reporting that the latter has lifted strict biosecurity restrictions on beef imports from the US in an effort to get 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum walked back, and also to avoid a further 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals that President Trump has threatened if no progress is made by his August 1 deadline. Australia has had restrictions in place on US beef exports since 2003, though some were lifted in 2019.

 

• Reuters reported on Wednesday that the US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) has proposed approvals for three products that contain dicamba, which is a weed killer commonly used in US ag that was banned by a federal court in 2024. The group argues the chemical does not pose a significant health or environmental threat, adding that the only risks were to some certain plants, and that these risks could be controlled when the products are used "according to the label."

 

• The USDA on Wednesday hosted the first of several online training sessions for its new weekly export sales reporting system that is expected to be rolled out later in October. There is no exact date set yet, but traders are hopeful this upgrade of the system goes better than the last attempt made at upgrading, which failed in 2022 and caused export sales data to be unavailable for nearly a month. The next online session will be in August, with a final one scheduled for the end of September.

 

• Not a lot of new details are available on a proposed trade deal between the US and the EU this morning, with sources continuing to report that things are "close" between the two sides. Trump mentioned yesterday that the low-water mark for reciprocal tariffs on any country wouldn't be below 15%, a comment that seems to indicate he's still unhappy with what progress has been made, but otherwise, its steady as she goes in general on the trade front this morning.

 

• Other news out of Europe for Thursday, which will be one of the main talking points in the equity space, includes an interest update from the European Central Bank, who is expected to hold rates steady this month after lowering them by a quarter percentage point last month in June as policymakers continue to debate the effect Trump's tariffs may have on the bloc's economy. Cuts are expected to resume in September, but traders see a "wait-and-see" approach as the most likely outcome for today's decision.

 

• More scattered precip was seen across the northern Midwest on Wednesday, as thunderstorm activity continues to provide moisture to the area. As these systems work south and east, Thursday's moisture looks to be a little more focused on west-central part of the Midwest, with parts of KS, MO, IA, northern IL and southern WI seeing chances at up to an inch or so of rainfall throughout the day and into tonight. This area then looks to see additional rains into the end of the week and weekend, with totals upwards of 2" possible by Monday.

 

• Temperatures look to remain mostly above average through the Corn Belt into next week, but there continues to be good model agreement on a return of cooler weather for the area then by the end of next week, with both the 5-10 and 10-15 day outlooks showing noticeably cooler temp anomalies for the eastern and northeastern parts of the country into August 8th.