PM Comments July 22 2025

Posted on Jul 22 at 15:30

The commodity complex was mixed on Tuesday with corn and beans lower, wheat higher, and livestock hanging in to close slightly green in feeder cattle and hogs and just lower in fat cattle. It seems that dollars are flowing toward financial indices and interest rate futures, and not to our agricultural markets. Livestock complex momentum keeps values elevated despite no fundamental news today to push it higher. The US farmer has not sold much new crop, and with grain prices at current levels it is unlikely that should change.

Corn Market Update

? Prices:

  • September Corn (CU): $3.99 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents
  • December Corn (CZ): $4.18 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents
  • September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -18 3/4, down 1/4 cent

 

? Market Headlines:

  • Despite lower than year ago G/E conditions in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, corn futures find it difficult to sustain and rally and fell for the second day in a row on Tuesday.

 

  • Us corn reported in the silking stage is 56% this week compared to 58% last year and 58% on average. Hot conditions across the Midwest this week do not bode well for pollinating corn, and moisture could increase the chances of onset foliar diseases as we work into August.

 

Summary:

The corn market has rejected a rally, despite growing concern over the heat of the next few weeks and pollination questions in some key growing regions. Additional demand questions are arising after Coca Cola pledged to add a cane sugar product line to its beverage complex, limiting the use of high fructose corn syrup.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

  • August Soybeans (SQ): $10.10 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents
  • November Soybeans (SX): $10.08, down 2 1/2 cents
  • August Soybean Meal (MQ): $273.8, up $3.30/ton
  • August Soybean Oil (LQ): 55.63, down 0.44 cents/lb
  • August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -15 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents

 

? Market Headlines:

  • Soybean board crush Q/Q/Q traded last 2.03, up 6.25

 

  • Still no new crop sales form the US into China. China has been a reported buyer of Brazilian soybeans through October to the tune of 3 mmt in the past 10 days, at values more expensive than US Gulf.

 

  • US/China trade negotiators are due to meet in Stockholm on Monday/Tuesday next week, but many feel it will take a Trump/Xi meeting to reach a concrete agreement.

 

Summary:

Crusher margin's to continue to improve with an increase in oil share. Beans, like corn, still find it difficult to sustain a rally and closed lower. It feels as if the demand picture will have to shift and see the US compete more directly or China business vs. Brazil, which is a more expensive buy for China. Trade negotiations are ongoing and trader sentiment remains fearful.

Wheat Market Update

? Prices:

  • September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.49 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents
  • December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.69 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents
  • September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20, up 1 cent

 

? Market Headlines:

  • US wheat futures closed higher on Tuesday, some pointing to a short squeeze of Russian wheat. Nonetheless, a large world carryout spells resistance for US wheat markets.

 

  • Winter wheat harvest is slightly behind last year at 73% harvested compared to 75% last year and 72% 5-year average. Spring wheat conditions were down 2% week/week to 52% G/E.

 

Summary:

The lions share of wheat harvest is over in the US and yields were very adequate in many key growing regions. Quality held as well, with low reportage of vomitoxin. The global wheat complex is searching for direction, with possible Russia/Ukraine peace deals (of which we have heard of many in the past) and increased run rates at domestic US flour mills. Like in corn and beans, we look for more concrete trade deals to give direction to the market.

In Other News
  • Livestock markets:
  • August live cattle: $224.975, down $0.25/cwt
  • August feeder cattle: $328.275, up $.675/cwt; new lifetime high 329.075
  • August lean hogs: $107.75, up 40 cents

 

  • Outside markets td:
  • Crude oil futures: down 84 cents/bbl
  • Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 138 points, the S&P500 index is down 3 points, and the NASDAQ is down 123 points;
  • US $ Index: down 43 points; outside day higher

 

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

  • In weeks 1-3, heat is expected across the central US to finish out July. Week 2 brings increased more heat risk focused in the high plains. The high-pressure ridge in the northern plains will bring dryness and heat to the Ag Belt. Overnight temperatures are expected to be elevated, possibly stressing pollinating corn.

 

? Extended Forecast:

  • Approaching weeks 6-10, heat continues across the Ag Belt building most in the central plains. Moisture will be spotty and widespread heat and dryness could develop in the southern plains as they lose moisture.