AM Comments July 22 2025

Posted on Jul 22 at 07:00

Good morning. Despite somewhat friendly soybean numbers in yesterday afternoon's crop progress update, markets are again lower this morning to start Tuesday. Spot corn is back testing $4, while beans are back within spitting distance of the $10 level, which have been solid support for the last couple weeks. Key for the bulls today will be that these levels continue to hold, with there not expected to be a ton of new news again throughout the session, with it otherwise being another day closer to harvest data being available in September/October and also the August 1 trade deadline and August crop report, which look to be the next real fundamental pieces of input to the market that could alter currently existing price trends. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 4-5 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-2 cents lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are also in the red to start this morning; crude oil futures are down 60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 70 points, and the US$ index is near unchanged. The S&P500 is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 10 points.

 

Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks

 

  • Yesterday afternoon's crop progress update showed US corn condition ratings as of Sunday, July 20th at 74% G/EX, which was again unchanged from the past two weeks. At the state level, CO was by far the biggest loser on the week, falling 12%, while inversely, 3% gains were seen in all of MN, OH, and SD; IL improved 2%, IN declined 2%, and IA improved just 1%.

 

  • The report also showed the amount of crop in the dough stage at 14% compared to 7% last week and 12% on average, while 56% of the crop was seen silking, compare to 34% last week and the five-year average of 58%.

 

  • Soybean conditions in the week fell 2% in the G/EX category to 68%, with the biggest declines of 5% being seen in ND and KS; conditions in MO fell 3% on the week, while IN, LA, and NC all fell 2% on the week. Inversely, OH and SD each saw improvements of 3%. Data showed 62% of the crop blooming compared to 47% last week and 63% on average, and also showed 26% of the crop setting pods, compared to 15% last week and 26% average.

 

  • For wheat, winter wheat harvest was seen at 73% complete compared to 75% last year and the five-year average of 72%. Spring wheat conditions in the G/EX category fell 2% on the week to 52%, while 87% of the crop was seen headed compared to 78% last week and 88% average. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.

 

  • According to a weekly update from South American consultancy AgRural, safrinha corn harvest advanced 15% over the past week to 55% complete. In a separate monthly report, the group also raised their production estimate from 130.6 MMTs previously to now 136.3 MMTs, citing further yield increases.

 

  • Russian Ag Minister Oksana Lut said that total Russian grain exports in the 2026/season could total 53-55 MMTs, with wheat accounting for around 43-44 MMTs of this total. She added that there were no production estimate updates, with the ministry still seeing total grain production in the season at 135 MMTs. Sources the last couple days have reported that Russia's new crop harvest has just begun arriving to market, which is slightly ahead of normal.

 

  • The USDA, in a monthly update, showed US egg production in the month of June at 8.33 billion, which compares to 8.59 billion in May and 8.79 billion in June of 2024. Tables eggs were down 3% on the month at 7.07 bil, while hatching eggs were down 2.6% at 1.25 bil.

 

  • The EU's Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit (MARS) said in a monthly report that western and northern European growing areas see high yield potential, while prospects are slightly lower in some southern regions like Turkey and Italy due to weather issues and pest problems. Too much rainfall has lowered prospects in Finland and Estonia, while southern Germany is seeing Stolbur disease in its sugar beet and potato crops caused by the spread of cicadas. EU wheat yields are seen at 6.09 tons/ha, up 0.1 from last month.

 

  • There isn't a lot new on the trade front of late, though Treasury Secretary Bessent and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt have continued to tout good progress when speaking with reporters. Leavitt said on Monday that the administration is planning on sending out additional tariff letters ahead of Trump's August 1 deadline for countries to make a deal, seemingly describing the letters as the actual deals in some cases.

 

  • Despite the rhetoric, sources say a deal with India will likely not be finalized before the deadline, while in-person negotiations with Japan in Washington this week have still failed to yield a breakthrough.

 

  • Other news that could possibly effect equity and financial markets on Tuesday includes a morning talk from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak at a DC conference focused on the Fed's capital framework. The talk comes amid ongoing attacks from President Trump over Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates in recent months. Sources don't expect much of anything notable out of Powell, but any shift in tone could cause a ripple in the markets.

 

  • Weather forecasts for Tuesday are little changed from Monday's runs this morning, with the EU model forecast continuing to call for additional precip/thunderstorms through the upper Midwest the rest of the week this week. The best accumulation looks to be in northern MN and into northwest WI, while a few local areas in KS/MO also look to pick up precip in the 1.5-2" ballpark. The southern Corn Belt and into the mid-south, meanwhile, look to see to mostly dry conditions through the end of the week.

 

  • Further out, week two precip maps have continued to shift around, though the EU model is still generally wetter for a larger area than the GFS model is, especially in the western and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt. There is also some model disagreement on extended temperature forecasts, with the EU seeing well below average air temps in the eastern 2/3's of the US the first week of August, while the GFS sees this cool air focused more on the north east, while the central Plains and western Corn Belt look to stay warm.