Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $4.08 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.27 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -19 1/4, down 1/4 cent; new contract low at -20
• For the week: CU was up 12 1/2 cents; CZ was up 15 1/2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Chinese customs data for the month of June showed corn imports in the month at just 160,000 tons, which is down more than 80% from last year. Cumulative imports through the first half of 2025 now stand at 790,000 tons, down 92.8% from the first half of 2024.

• Yesterday's weekly drought monitor update showed just 9% of the US corn area in D1-D4 drought conditions, which is down 3% from the week prior and a new low for the growing season.

Summary:

The corn market ended the week in the green on Friday, with short-covering presumably the dominate theme throughout the day as news remained rather quiet. We've talked about it all week, but its just all about US crop sizes at this point and weather forecasts that are contributing. It seems there's some kind of value just below the $4 mark, which the looks to be the short-term support level going into next week. On the upside, initial objectives will be the gaps left last week, with the July highs the next target above here.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.27 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.35 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $274.0, up $5.30/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 55.82, down 0.40 cents/lb; new contract high at 57.17
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): -8, down 3 cents
• For the week: SQ was up 23 1/2 cents; SX was up 18 1/2 cents; MQ was up $3.70/ton; LQ was up 2.07 cents/lb

? Market Headlines:

• Drought monitor data from Thursday showed just 7% of the US soybean crop area in D1-D4 drought conditions, which is the lowest figure of the growing season and down 2% from last week.

• According to a private securities group, the potential implementation of B50 biofuel blends in Indonesia could possibly offset most, if not all, of the negative demand impacts from new US tariffs, which are set to go into effect on August 1. The country rolled out B40 requirements earlier this year, and appears to be on pace to meet its production target.

Summary:

Like corn, news in the soybean market to end the week was rather quiet, with their not being a lot in terms of headlines that had much of an impact on prices. Soybean oil started the morning at new highs for the week, but was unable to sustain the buying as the two-day sprint finally ran out of gas. It will be interesting to see which side of even the fund position comes down on this afternoon, as managed money continues to not have a lot of interest in building any sort of sizeable position in either direction.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.46 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.67, up 12 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 3/4, unchanged
• For the week: WU was up 1 1/4 cents; WZ was up 1 1/2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Wheat imports in the Chinese customs data were seen at 350,000 tons for the month of June, which is down 71% from last year. Cumulative imports for the first half of the year stand at 19.6 MMTs, down nearly 80% from last year.

• A German ag cooperatives group said in a report that the country's wheat crop would likely total around 21.6 MMTs this year, which was little changed from their previous estimate. The group mentioned that extreme heat over the past four weeks had caused damage, but that the worst was likely avoided.

• The weekly drought monitor update showed 36% of the US spring wheat area in D1-D4 drought conditions, up 1% from last week and up 17% from the low-water mark seen the first week of June.

Summary:

The wheat market was the strongest of the bunch on a percentage basis on Friday, though there also wasn't a lot of anything specific here to blame the buying on. Like corn, short-covering was likely a feature throughout today, with funds likely banking some profits from the rest of the week's down move.

In Other News

• Livestock markets ended the week mixed, with cattle lower and the hog market higher:
• August live cattle: $223.55, down 12 cents; new contract high at $224.55
• August feeder cattle: $324.00, down $1.00
• August lean hogs: $106.47, up 65 cents

• Outside markets are trading quietly lower to end the week:
• Crude oil futures: down 5-10 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 190 points, the S&P500 index is down 10 points, and the NASDAQ is down 20 points
• US $ Index: down 20-25 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• According to the 12Z GFS run, weekend rainfall is expected in a range of 0.5-1.5", with the best totals expected through IA, N IL, IN and OH. The rest of the Corn Belt outside of these areas will see spottier precip, with totals likely not amounting to more than a couple tenths.

• Temperatures over the next few days will be mixed, with cooler air lingering in the northern and northwestern parts of the Corn Belt, while the southeast returns to warmer weather, especially into next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• Looking to next week and into the end of the month, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain common throughout the Midwest as a southwestern high pressure ridge continues to shunt flow to the north and east. Rainfall next week according to the models likely favors the northern Corn Belt, with the Dakotas/MN/WI seeing the best potential.

• Temperature forecasts this afternoon are little changed from previous days this week, and continue to show average to slightly above average warmth for most all of the US in the 10-15 day period, with the warmest temps seen staying generally west of the Rockies.