AM Comments July 21 2025
Good morning. Corn and soybean markets are lower to start the new week on Monday morning, while the wheat market is trading marginally higher on what appears to be some measure of spread activity. Last week, it was reported that traders had been unwinding long wheat/short corn and long wheat/short soybean positions, with it appearing this morning that some of those traders are now re-entering those spreads in the overnight trade so far last night. Otherwise, it is additional rain for the northern Corn Belt that was added over the weekend that is the other source of this morning's selling, before USDA this afternoon gives us new weekly condition and progress figures to chew on for the rest of the week. President Trump's looming August 1 tariff deadline is the other story that looks to be of interest this week and next, though we are doubting anything of significance comes for US agriculture based on how negotiations have gone to this point. Corn futures to start the week are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 6-8 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are mostly lower, soybean meal is unchanged to down 20 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed to start Monday - crude oil futures are down around 5 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 100 points, and the US$ index is down 40 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points, and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; Weekly Crop Progress
- Friday afternoon's CFTC commitment of traders report showed in the week ending July 15th, fund traders were buyers of 29,106 contracts of corn (now net-short 174,755 contracts), sellers of 26,063 contracts of soybeans (net-short 32,278), and sellers of 4,893 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 60,487). In soy products, funds sold 1,537 contracts of meal (net-short 133,016) and bought 5,479 contracts of bean oil (net-long 43,221). To view our CFTC Commitment of Traders charts, please click here.
- Chinese customs data released over the weekend showed by0country soybean imports for the month of June similar to what private groups had forecast last week, with imports from Brazil in the month seen at 10.62 MMTs compared to just 1.58 MMTs from the US. The US number was still up more than 20% from June 2024, while cumulative imports through the first half of 2025 are up more than 30%. For Brazil, the monthly figure was up a little over 9% from last year, while cumulative imports in 2025 are down 7.5% from last year.
- According to local media reports over the weekend based on official trade data, soybean exports out of Paraguay in the first half of 2025 were down more than 25% from last year's total at 4.106 MMTs. The source added that lower production compared to last year due to drought conditions in some areas was the main reason for the decline.
- In a statement over the weekend, Bangladesh announced that it had reached an agreement with US wheat exporters on 700k tons of imports over the next five years, with the end goal of "boosting bilateral trade cooperation" between the two sides. The statement added that purchases would be made at competitive prices, though there weren't a lot of details otherwise.
- Headlines out of Europe over the weekend included an update on French crop ratings from FranceAgriMer, which showed 69% of the country's wheat crop now rated G/EX, up 1% from last week. Elsewhere, Germany's farm co-ops see the country's wheat crop up nearly 17% from last year to 21.56 MMTs, while Ukraine's new crop grain harvest has reached a total of 7.2 MMTs so far; total harvest is still seen at around 51 MMTs, down around 10% from last year.
- Also related to Europe, negotiators between the EU and the US are expected to continue talks this week aimed at reaching a trade agreement before August 1, which is the deadline President Trump has imposed for duties on goods coming from the bloc to increase to 30%. Sources familiar say the EU has plans to retaliate should no agreement be reached, while US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday told CBS reporters he was "confident" a deal would get done.
- Thunderstorm activity continued to impact the heart of the Midwest over the past couple days, with 72-hour satellite data showing streaky bands of rainfall across IA/MO/IL/IN that exceed 4-6" in some local areas. More general totals were seen in a half inch to inch range, though amounts could vary greatly in a span of just a few miles.
- For this week, models trended wetter over the weekend for the northern Corn Belt, with an additional 1-2+" expected between now and Saturday for parts of the eastern Dakotas and into central MN. Further to the south, the I-states have chances of a few tenths to a half inch or so, but totals and locations will again be hard to pinpoint due to the ongoing convective nature of the systems.
- Temperatures will be cool in the east to start the week this week for another day or two, but will quickly return to above average as warmer air in the central US works its way back east into the middle of the week. Warmer air is then expected to linger into next week, though the 10-15 day outlook this morning again shows cooler air returning by the end of the first week of August. Confidence that far out remains low, but that heat for now is not seen lingering is a good thing for producers.
- Precip forecasts in the extended period are similar to what was seen on Friday, and offer above average moisture chances for the northern Corn Belt while the central and southern parts are seen average to slightly below average. The GFS is wetter through the southeast than the EU model, which will need monitoring as we go through this week.