Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.99 1/4, unchanged
• December Corn (CZ): $4.16 1/2, up a penny
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -17 1/4, down 1 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly U.S. export sales were supportive for corn this morning, with old crop corn sales at 49.7 mln. bu. Old crop commitments are up 28% from a year ago compared to USDA’s projection of a 16% increase. This disparity suggests USDA will raise the 24/25 corn export estimate in tomorrow’s WASDE report. New crop corn export sales totaled 35 mln. bu. this morning.

• In addition, USDA announced 110,000 tons of new crop corn sold to unknown destinations this morning.

• Conab released their updated production estimates this morning, pegging Brazil’s 24/25 total corn production at 132.0 MMT’s, an increase of 3.7 MMT’s from their June estimate. First crop corn production was little changed while second corn crop production increased 3.5 MMT’s from June to 104.5 MMT’s and private estimates have this total significantly higher (up to potentially 123 MMT’s). 

• Traders are expecting to see new crop U.S. corn ending stocks similar to last month, with the average estimate at 1.722 bln. bu. Old crop corn stocks are expected to drop slightly to 1.352 bln. bu.  

• At the world level, corn stocks are expected to be higher on the month at 276.4 MMT’s.

Summary:

Intermarket spreading and positioning in front of tomorrow’s USDA report resulted in mixed corn trade today. There were 37 corn deliveries posted overnight versus the July contract.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.12 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.13 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $271.40, up $1.00/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 53.49, up .20 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): - 1 1/4, down 3 cents

? Market Headlines:

• The Brazilian real dropped 2% against the dollar following President Trump’s 50% tariffs threat on Brazil yesterday afternoon but turned around and strengthened during the session.

• Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were neutral this morning. Old crop sales totaled 18.5 mln. bu. China remains notably absent in regard to new U.S. soybean purchases. At this point last year China had started to buy new crop U.S. soybeans.

• Brazil’s export soybean basis has firmed sharply the last ten days.

• Conab released their updated production estimates this morning, pegging Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop at 169.5 MMT’s, slightly lower than their June estimate at 169.6 MMT’s. 

• The trade is expecting to see a U.S. new crop soybean ending stocks figure similar to last month, with the average trade estimate at 303 mln. bu. Old crop soybean stocks are expected to show a slight increase to 360 mln. bu.

• At the world level, soybean stocks are expected to show an increase from last month at 126.6 MMT’s.

Summary:

Late bean/corn spreading unwinding drove soybean futures higher after a lower start to the day. Both old and new crop soybean futures dropped to fresh 3-month lows. Soybean meal made a new contract low and soy oil took out yesterday’s low. There were 308 soybean deliveries posted overnight versus the July contract, 148 soymeal deliveries, and no soyoil deliveries.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.54 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.75, up 7 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/2, down a 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• U.S. export wheat sales came in at the high end of expectations at 20.9 mln. bu. this morning. YTD commitments are the highest in 5 years. Wheat also saw its first new crop sale with 340,000 bu. reported.

• Conab lowered their Brazilian wheat forecast .4 MMT to 7.8 MMT’s. This compares to USDA’s current estimate of 8 MMT’s.

• Traders look for U.S. wheat ending stocks to come in similar to last month with the average estimate at 894 mln. bu. At the world level, wheat stocks are expected at 262.5 MMTs compared to 262.8 last month.

• U.S. winter wheat area in drought rose 2% from the previous week to 26%, while spring wheat area in drought rose 6% to 35%.

Summary:

Short covering pushed Chicago wheat futures higher. Some market participants think lower harvested acreage in USDA’s June report could result in a friendly WASDE wheat report tomorrow. WU25 closed back above its 50-day moving average. Rumors circulated today that China may have bought U.S. wheat, but confirmation was lacking. There were 16 Kansas City HRW wheat deliveries posted overnight versus the July contract.

In Other News

Livestock markets:

Volume has been heavy in live cattle the past 3 days. August live cattle had a key reversal today. Feeder cattle gapped higher into new record highs following news the USDA’s planned reopening of the Mexican border for cattle imports has once again been halted. 

• August live cattle: $219.225, down $0.55
• August feeder cattle: $321.275, up $.80
• August lean hogs: $106.225, down $1.00

Outside markets:

The equity markets are steady/higher. The U.S. dollar is slightly firmer, and metals are stronger. Energy futures are weaker. Concerns of oversupplied crude markets weighed on futures as did fears energy demand will be hindered by new rounds of tariffs in August.

• Crude oil futures: down at $68.88
• Stock index futures: Higher with the Dow up 187 points. The Nasdaq is up 19 points and S&P is trading 17 points higher.
• US $ Index: up .081 at 97.280.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Warm temperatures are expected for another day or two followed by more seasonal temperatures this weekend and cooler temperatures in the 5 to 10 day outlook. Much of the nation’s midsection is expected to see precipitation over the next week, with the heaviest totals favoring the central Midwest.

? Extended Forecast:

• Warmer than normal temperatures are still being advertised for the last week of July and into the early days of August as the dominating ridge of high pressure over the Pacific NW begins to expand eastwardly across the N Plains and into the Midwest. The ridge shift will also bring a drier weather pattern for the Midwest.