AM Comments July 10 2025
Good morning. Ag markets were steady overnight but just recently went negative. Corn, soybeans, and wheat have all had a bad week of losses after steady gains last week. The prospect of better than expected yields and ending stocks is weighing on the markets. The weather outlook has done little to scare the markets at any point of the season so far this year. Stocks markets are mixed this morning with small moves in either direction for the major indexes. Oil markets are down a little more than -1%. The financial markets continue to receive trade news which seems to be changing by the minute with the administration. Tomorrow is the July WASDE at 11am with few fireworks expected.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims
- Tomorrow's WASDE report will keep yield estimates the same as June but the market is pricing an optimistic outlook for yields across the corn belt, especially in Iowa.
- Traders see US new crop corn and soybean ending stocks similar to last month, with average estimates of corn stocks at 1.722 bil bu, soybean stocks at 303 mil bu, and wheat stocks at 894 mil bu. An increase in yield of 2-4 bushels in coming months for corn would put US ending stocks closer to 2 bil bu - a healthy supply level in the US and a weight on the market. Soybean yields and therefore ending stocks are more of a wildcard at the moment.
- An EU heatwave and lack of rain is stressing crops in the region - notably France - and causing low levels in the Danube River. Little relief is expected in the coming days.
- Weekly export sales are set for release this morning. The market will be watching new crop sales data to see if/when China begins to buy US soybeans. Last year China bought their first US soybeans the week of July 4 - historically late to begin buying new crop beans. Trade tensions could interrupt China's appetite for US beans.
- Brazil's CONAB will provide updated corn and soybean production estimates this morning. Traders estimate corn production at 133.11 MMTs vs 128.25 last month, and soybean production at 170.9 MMTs vs 169.6 last month.
- The Ukrainian Grain Association expects a 5% increase over last year in combined grain and oilseeds harvest in 2025-26. They also see corn exports increasing over last year to 24 MMT vs 21.5 MMT last year.
- The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported an increase in palm oil stocks of nearly 3% in June. The increase in stocks was a result of disappointing export figures, which was a surprise to the market and provides a bearish point in the global vegetable oil markets. Malaysia is the world's second largest producer of palm oil.
- One of Russia's top wheat-growing regions, Rostov, is expected to have around a 20% decline in wheat production due to severe drought. However, another top producing region, Stavropol, is making up for the decline by what appears to be record production. The net result is likely a steady supply from Russia - the world's largest exporter of wheat.
- President Trump has announced a 50% tariff on Brazil to which Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said they would respond with their own 50% tariff rate on its exports to the United States.
- Some rain blew through the upper Midwest overnight and into this morning, although totals were not substantial.
- Looking further into the last half of July, forecasts have remained non-threatening through the week this week, and call for average temps into the third week of July. Precip is expected to remain above average for mostof the Midwest, which will continue to limit crop stress and keep record production potential intact.