Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.99 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.15 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -16 1/4, unchanged

? Market Headlines:

• The fund selling appears to be over for now after the funds sold an estimated 22,000 contracts over the previous two days. New contracts lows were scored early in the session before fresh buying emerged. We peg the funds as net short 213,000 contracts of corn coming into today's session.

• EIA data showed ethanol production jumped to 319 mg, up from 316 mg (0.8%) from a week ago and 2.0% above the same week a year ago. Ethanol stocks came in near trade expectations.

• July deliveries were reported this morning to include 36 contracts of corn, 139 contracts of bean meal and 4 contracts of KC wheat.

Summary:

After scoring fresh contract lows, corn futures found some minor buying interest as traders reversed recent short corn/long soybean positions. Weekly ethanol production exceeded the pace needed to reach USDA objectives for the 6th consecutive week. Regarding Friday's WASDE report, traders will be watching old crop demand closely. Most feel export demand will be increased by 50-100 mb, offsetting a slowing feed and residual usage. Ethanol demand will likely remain unchanged with ending stocks declining slightly to 1.352 BB for old crop. New crop ending stocks are expected to decline slightly to 1.722 BB due to the smaller carry-in, and a slight decrease in corn harvested acres.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.08 1/4, down 13 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.07 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $269.40, down $1.30/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 53.29, down .82 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): +1 3/4, down 2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Soybean futures made new lows for the move which sparked a flurry of technical selling. Some of today's selling was associated with spread traders, unwinding long bean / short corn positions. Trade concerns with China remains on the forefront.

• Bean products were on the defensive with much of the selling centered around bean oil. The trade remains nervous that the Trump Administration will diminish the blending obligations regarding RVOs with exemptions for small refineries.

Summary:

The bears were able to push beans below key support level of last week's low, and the selling intensity increased as traders unwound recent long positions. Tariff fears encouraged the selling as additional letters were sent out to the Philippines, and other emerging countries. Bean oil finished sharply lower on "small refinery fears" with the selling spilling over into the soybean market. Tomorrow's export sales report will be closely watched for new crop sales. We still have not seen any new crop soybean demand from China.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.47, down 3/4 cent.
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.67 1/4, sown 1 1/4 cent.
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/2, up 1/2 cent.

? Market Headlines:

• Wheat futures were mixed on Wednesday. Fresh fundamental news remains scarce. The trade expects to see larger US production forecasts in this Friday's WASDE report. As mentioned yesterday, SovEcon raised their forecast for Russian wheat exports, although expects early season sales to be less aggressive than last year.

Summary:

Nearby Chicago wheat scored an outside day on the daily chart, trading to a 1-week low before rallying back to finish the day marginally lower. Nearby KC wheat managed to rally back into the close, settling fractionally higher after trading to a 2-month low early in the session. Ukraine's Grain Union is forecasting 2025 wheat production at 22.4 mmt, just below the USDA's current forecast of 23 mmt. Russia has apparently increased their attacks on Ukraine now that the US has resumed its weapons support to Ukraine.

In Other News

• Livestock markets continue to work higher following sharp gains from the past several days. All-time record highs were scored once again for feeder cattle. August feeders finished the day near 320.65, up1.52 for the day. Likewise, Live cattle closed into new highs as well. Hog futures finished the day higher, trying to carve out some type of support stemming ffrom the late June sell-off.

• August live cattle: $219.77, down $0.20
• August feeder cattle: $320.47, up $1.35
• August lean hogs: $107.22, up $0.45

• Outside markets were mixed to higher. The equity markets spent most of the day moderately higher. Crude oil faded into the close. The dollar index is mixed to a shade firmer.

• Crude oil futures: unchanged at $68.33
• Stock index futures: Higher with the Dow down +182 points. The Nasdaq is up 141 points and S&P is trading 30 points higher.
• US $ Index: up .020 at 97.205.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Over the next 7 days, moderate to heavy rains are expected across much of IA, MN and WI. Rainfall totals in these areas are expected to range from 1.00 to 3.00" Lighter rainfall totals are expected across MO and IL, thru IN, OH and MI with totals generally ranging from 0.10 to 0.50". See map below.

• Temperatures in the 5-10 day outlook appear more seasonable for the S and C Plains and into IA and MO. Intervals of warmth is expected across much of IL, IN, OH and MI.

? Extended Forecast:

• Warmer than normal temperatures are still being advertised for the last week of July and into the early days of August as the dominating ridge of high pressure over the Pacific NW begins to expand eastwardly across the N Plains and into the Midwest. The ridge shift will also bring a drier weather pattern for the Midwest.