AM Comments July 11 2025

Posted on Jul 11 at 07:04

Good morning. Happy Friday. Markets at the CBOT are quietly lower this morning in what has been a light-volume overnight trading session ahead of the USDA's release of the July WASDE report later this morning. End-of-week position squaring has also been a theme overnight, with volume in both the corn and soybean markets being on the lower end. As far as today goes, traders in the bull camp will be hopeful prices can hold the lows made yesterday; a weekly close above $4 would be a good sign for the short term in corn, while holding $10 for the week would be a similarly encouraging sign in the soybean space. This isn't to say these lows couldn't be taken out again next week as momentum at this point seems to remain lower, but it would at least be some sort of encouragement going into the weekend after what has been another otherwise ugly week in the futures markets. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 1-2 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down around 10 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 250 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is down 30 points and the NASDAQ is down 100 points.

 

Today's Reports: USDA July WASDE; CFTC Commitment of Traders

 

• The CME Group for Friday assigned another 199 contracts of soybean meal for delivery, along with 60 contracts of rough rice, 33 contracts of corn, 22 contracts of soybeans, 5 contracts of KC wheat, and 4 contracts of oats.

 

• For today's July WASDE report, traders see US new crop corn and soybean ending stocks coming in similar to last month, with corn stocks seen at 1.720 bil bu and soybean stocks seen at 302 mil bu; wheat stocks are seen at 895 mil bu, which is also similar to last month. Old crop corn stocks are expected to drop slightly to 1.353 bil bu, while old crop soybean stocks are seen increasing slightly to 358 mil bu.

 

• At the world level, corn and soybean stocks are both seen higher on the month at 277.5 MMTs and 126.3 MMTs respectively; world wheat stocks are seen at 262.7 MMTs, compared to 262.8 last month.

 

• Not a lot of production estimate updates are expected for either US corn or soybeans, while US wheat production is seen coming in about 5 mil bu lower than last month at 1.915 bil bu. For South America, there is no change expected for Argentina corn production, while soybeans there are seen increasing just 0.3 MMTs to 49.3 MMTs; in Brazil, corn production is seen increasing to 132.5 MMTs, while soybean production is seen at 169.3 MMTs.

 

• Argentina's weekly crop update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange showed corn harvest in the country advanced to 70.4% complete over the past week, which puts it now nearly 7% ahead of the five-year average. The report also showed wheat planting advanced to 91% complete, while 98% of the crop is currently rated as either normal or excellent.

 

• Data from Ukraine's Ag Ministry released earlier today shows the country's winter grain harvest continues to make slow progress, with just 2.6 MMTs of grain harvested; this compares to some 8.4 MMTs of grains harvested by this time last year. The total includes about 1.2 MMTs of wheat (down 78% from last year) and about 1.2 MMTs of barely (down 52% from last year).

 

• Industry sources in western Australia indicate the region's wheat crop could be down more than 3 MMTs from last year's total at just 9.4 MMTs, as dry weather in some of the highest producing areas has likely already trimmed yield potential there. The source added weather had improved recently, but that the damage was likely already done and the state would probably struggle to meet current production estimates. Western Australia wheat harvest usually begins during late-October.

 

• Just days after cattle imports from Mexico resumed at some border crossings in the southwest, USDA officials said on Thursday that imports would again be shut off as the screwworm pest that caused the initial shutdown had again creeped closer to the US border. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called the reaction "exaggerated", saying it was an over-reaction to a single case that was otherwise under control. There is currently no timeline for how long the current ban is expected to last.

 

• According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending July 5th totaled 781k tons, which was up more than 35% from the week prior; corn shipments in the week were up more than 53% at 595k tons, while soybean shipments were down 17% at 135k tons. Barge freight rates at STL were up 68 cents on the week to $13.25/short ton.

 

• Along with new 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil, President Trump on Thursday also announced 35% tariffs on goods coming from Canada starting on August 1, while also announcing plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on a host of other US trading partners. To the Brazil situation, President Lula da Silva said he would like to find a diplomatic solution to the new measures, but added that should they go into effect as planned on August 1, his country would be responding in kind with similar trade barriers.

 

• Weather forecasts going into the weekend are showing additional rain/thunderstorm potential across a good chunk of the Corn Belt between now and Monday, with the best chances seen across IA and into N IL and S WI; totals in these places will likely range from 1-2" according to the EU model, with some locally heavier precip possible. Lighter rains also look to fall across TX/OK and other parts of the south-central US and mid-south/southern Midwest, while the southeast and northwest will be on the drier side.

 

• Temperatures over the next 72 hours will be a bit mixed, with cooler air currently present in the northern Plains working its way east over the next couple days; Saturday highs in the western Corn Belt will be seen in the mid/lower-80's, with similar temps then seen in the east on Sunday. Then for next week, a bigger pocket of cooer air is expected, with daytime highs not cracking 80 across a good majority of the Corn Belt by the end of next week. And then lastly, even the 10-15 day outlook doesn't show any signs of major heat returning to the area into the end of month, which will continue to benefit crop development.

 

• Good luck with today's USDA numbers. The biggest question in our opinion going into the report is old crop corn exports, as this will likely have the biggest impact on any potential ending stocks adjustments for either crop year. Have a great weekend!