AM Comments July 9 2025

Posted on Jul 09 at 07:00

Good morning. Grain and soy markets have attempted to show some signs of life this morning to start mid-week trading, though volume is light and upward price action has been come-and-go so far at least to start the day. News this morning has remained largely the same as previous days, but it seems traders have pushed the markets far enough over the past couple sessions, at least for the time being, and are taking some of their profits to start Wednesday. Seasonal patterns would argue that we should be closer to a bottom in prices than not, but the current technical set-up, along with seemingly ever-growing crop prospects, make this scenario rather difficult to believe at this point. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are trading unchanged to two pennies lower, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading unchanged to a penny lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly quietly higher, crude oil futures are up around 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 120 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 40 points.

 

Today's Reports: EIA Monthly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks

 

• July deliveries for Wednesday, according to the CME Group, include 139 contracts of soybean meal, as well as 36 contracts of corn and 4 contracts of KC wheat.

 

• This morning's weekly EIA ethanol production report for the week ending July 4th is expected to show average daily production in the week between 1.060 - 1.075 mil bbls, while stocks in the week are seen between 23.850 - 24.217 mil bbls; on average, both estimates would be similar to figures seen last week.

 

• For Friday's July WASDE report, traders see US new crop corn and soybean ending stocks coming in similar to last month, with corn stocks seen at 1.722 bil bu and soybean stocks seen at 303 mil bu; wheat stocks are seen at 894 mil bu, which is also similar to last month. Old crop corn stocks are expected to drop slightly to 1.352 bil bu, while old crop soybean stocks are seen increasing slightly to 360 mil bu.

 

• At the world level, corn and soybean stocks are both seen higher on the month at 276.4 MMTs and 126.6 MMTs respectively; world wheat stocks are seen at 262.5 MMTs, compared to 262.8 last month.

 

• Not a lot of production estimate updates are expected for either US corn or soybeans, while US wheat production is seen coming in about 14 mil bu lower than last month at 1.907 bil bu. For South America, there is no change expected for Argentina corn production, while soybeans there are seen increasing just 0.2 MMTs to 49.2 MMTs; in Brazil, corn production is seen increasing to 132.3 MMTs, while soybean production is seen at 169.4 MMTs.

 

• Brazil's CONAB will also give updated corn and soybean production estimate updates at 7am central time tomorrow morning; traders here see corn production coming in at 133.11 MMTs vs 128.25 last month, and see soybean production coming in at 170.9 MMTs vs 169.6 last month.

 

• Private Black Sea ag consultancy SovEcon raised their estimate of Russia's 2025/26 wheat exports by 2.1 MMTs to 42.9 MMTs recently, citing improved crop prospects, as well as more competitive prices compared to other exporters like Bulgaria and Romania. 2024/25 Russian wheat exports totaled 40.8 MMTs.

 

• Trade data released yesterday by the European Commission showed EU soybean imports in the 2025/25 marketing year which ended at the end of June at 14.52 MMTs, which is above the 2023/24 total of 13.2 MMTs. Data showed rapeseed imports at 7.45 MMTs were also up compared to last year's 5.68 MMT total.

 

• US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins, speaking to reporters at the USDA's headquarters on Tuesday, said that there would be "no amnesty" for ag workers that are in the US illegally, as the Trump administration continues its crackdown on illegal migrants. Rollins further added that the administration wants a "100% American workforce" and that there are some 34 million able-bodied adults currently on Medicaid that could take these jobs.

 

• At the same press conference, Rollins also told reporters that the USDA was continuing to work on curbing on farmland purchases by "foreign adversaries", and had been terminating agreements and contracts with people and entities from those countries. In regards to land already owned by Chinese companies Syngenta and Smithfield Foods, Rollins said an executive order would likely soon be passed regarding the situation, and that USDA would be looking at multiple avenues within the federal government to "begin clawing that back."

 

• President Trump on Tuesday said he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper in his latest move to reshape global trade; copper futures spiked sharply on the news yesterday, but gapped-lower on the open last night and have been giving back some of those gains so far this morning. Relatedly, Treasury Secretary Bessent said tariff income has amounted to around $100 billion so far, with expectations for this to possibly reach $300 billion by the end of 2025.

 

• Aside from follow through headlines on this situation, the financial world Wednesday will otherwise continue to have attention on ongoing discussions between Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, and also on this afternoon's FOMC meeting minute release from the June meeting, which comes amid ongoing calls for rate cuts from Trump and his administration and threats towards Fed Cahir Jerome Powell over continued failure to do so.

 

• The EU model's precip outlook for the rest of this week shows additional rain/thunderstorm activity in the western/northwestern Corn Belt between now and the end of the day on Friday, with 0.5" to 1" of additional rain expected in parts of the Dakota's, NE, IA, MN and WI; the central and southern Corn Belt, meanwhile, see little/no precip between now and the end of the week. Further south and east, the Gulf Cost and broader southeast also expect to see additional rains through the end of the week, with 0.5-1.5" possible.

 

• Temperatures for most of the Midwest will be rather seasonal the rest of the week, with alternating days of slightly above and slightly below average temps expected for most of the area. Heat in the western US looks to subside a bit following today, with mostly cooler than average air then seen for the area into next week.

 

• Further out into the back half of month, forecasts have remained non-threatening through the week this week, and continue to call for relatively average temps into the week of July 19-24. Precip is also still expected to remain above average for most all of the Midwest, which will continue to limit crop stress and keep record production potential intact.