Corn and soybean futures were under heavy pressure following the long 4th of July weekend. Several key trade-related issues weighed heavily on the marketplace. Going into the 3-day holiday weekend, corn and soybean futures rallied in anticipation of some type of friendly trade news that Trump allegedly was planning to make in Iowa. The lack of any earth-shattering news, combined with negative trade news with Japan and S Korea, both weighed on our futures market. Corn, wheat and soybean futures gapped lower to start off the new week of trading.

? Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $4.03 1/2, sown 16 3/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.20 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -17 1/4, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters reported the sale of 135,000 MT of corn sold to Mexico. 29,000 MT was for 2024/25 and 106,000 MT is for the 2025/26 crop year.

• Weekly corn inspections of 58.7 MB was up from 54.36 MB a week ago. YTD inspections now total 2,222.16 MB or 84% of the USDA estimate. Weekly inspections need to average 31.3 MB to reach the objective. Noted buyers were Mexico and Japan.

• In addition to the lack of fresh trade news during Trump's speech in Iowa, were rumors that Trump is about to impose 25% tariffs on both Japan and S Korea starting Aug 1st. For reference, YTD corn sales to Japan total 12.36 mmt or 18% of our total sales to "known" destinations. Corn sales to S Korea total 5.92 MMT or 8.7% of total known sales.

Summary:

Old and new crop corn futures gapped lower on the open last night and were unable to fill the gap during Monday's trade. The Trump speech was considered a disappointment for the bulls as no new trade news with China was mentioned. Today's tariff announcement on Japan and S Korea was another punch in the gut for producers still holding old crop corn. US weather remains favorable with numerous rain chances in the near futures. This afternoon's Crop Progress report is expected to show another improvement in US corn ratings.

? Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.31 1/2, down 24 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.20 3/4, down 28 1/2 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $272.20, down $5.20 /ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 53.94, down 0.61 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): 10 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly export inspections came in at 14.3 MB which was a nice rebound from the 8.7 MB inspected for export the previous week. Weekly sales need to avg 13.1 MB/week to reach USDA's objective. YTD sales are up 11% from a year ago with the USDA forecasting a 9% ride.

• Nearby board crush improved to 153.70, which was $6 higher than Friday's close. The oilshare remains at multi-year highs and slightly above 50%.
• Bunge has reportedly shipped 30 kmt of soybean meal from Argentina to China. This is China's first purchase of Argentine meal since 2019. To date, China has yet to book any new crop bean purchases.

• Weekly crop ratings are expected to improve 1 point in the G/E category. Last week's rating showed beans at 66% G/E.

Summary:

Like corn, soybean futures gapped lower last night and was unable to fill the gap in today's action. The lack of fresh trade news with China remains bearish. Although more of a corn story, additional trade barriers with Japan and S Korea are not what farmers want to see. China has yet to book any new crop bean purchases from the US. Historically speaking, August is when China normally gets more aggressive in locking in purchases of US beans. There is time for this demand to materialize, but traders are obviously getting anxious. US weather remains mostly favorable for crop development.

? Wheat Market Update

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.48 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents.
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.70 1/4, down 8 cents.
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -21 3/4, down 1/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export inspections came in on the higher end of expectations at 16.04 MB, down slightly from last week's 17.5 MB. With 47 weeks remaining in the new crop year, weekly sales need to average 16.2 MB to reach USDA objective.

• To help improve export interest, Russia's Ag ministry has eliminated export taxes on wheat exports starting July 9th and lasting thru July 15th. This is the first time Russia has dropped this export tax to 0 since implementation back in 2021.

• Crop ratings are expected to show a 1% improvement for both spring and winter crop varieties (Last week's ratings was 53% and 48% G/E, respectively). The winter wheat harvest should jump to 49% complete.

Summary:

Wheat futures gapped lower last night and were unable to fill the gap during today's action. Export inspections were solid for the week. Russia lowering export taxes to 0% should offer cheaper supplies to the marketplace. US crop ratings are expected to show a slight improvement. US weather remains mostly favorable.

? In Other News

• Livestock markets started the week on a solid note with solid gains seen across the board.
• August live cattle: $215.90, up $1.85
• August feeder cattle: $313.72, up $4.22
• August lean hogs: $107.10, up $1.00

• Outside markets were mixed as we begin a new week of trading.
• Crude oil futures: up $1.01 at $68.01
• Stock index futures: Lower with the Dow down over 500 points. The Nasdaq and S&P both showing roughly a 1% loss.
• US $ Index: up 30 points and trying to forge out a bottom.

?? Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• The midday weather maps are showing numerous rain chances over the next 3 days, including some of the drier areas of N IL. Rainfall totals of 0.50" to 2.50" is possible.

• Confidence in rainfall totals beyond the 3-day outlook vary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through this weekend with another rain event slated for early next week.

• Temperatures will remain on the warm side but there are no signs of extended heat and a dome of high pressure dominating the central US. Any high pressure ridging is expected to remain in the SW US.

? Extended Forecast:

• Extended forecasts into mid-July are again little changed this afternoon, and continue to show above average precip potential through most all of the Corn Belt, while the only area of dryness concern resides in the western US in parts of NV and UT.

• 10-15 day temperature outlooks have trended warmer this week, most notably in southern Canada and the northeastern US, where well above air temps are now seen into mid-month. The western US also looks to stay, while stormy conditions keep temps closer to average in the south-central Plains and southern part of the country.