AM Comments July 7, 2025
Good morning. The new week starts with sharply lower ag prices. The bounce in grains and oilseeds late last week was partly tied to hopes that President Trump would announce new trade information, hopefully involving China, at his address in Iowa on Thursday night. No new information regarding China was involved in his comments, and thus, ag futures are moving sharply lower. The weather forecast continues to look supportive to elevated crop conditions, which is also weighing on futures to start the week. Corn futures are trading 12 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 20 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 10 to 12 cents lower. Products are mixed: soybean meal is down $3-4/ton, and soybean oil is down 40 points. Outside markets are mixed/quiet, crude oil futures are steady, the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is up 200 points; the S&P500 is down 17 points and the NASDAQ is down 90 points.
Today's Reports: Export inspections, Crop progress, Commitment of Traders'
- Trade is at the forefront of the market news to start the week. President Trump failed to mentioned anything specific regarding trade with China during his July 3rd address in Iowa. Speculation that he would offer new news about trade offered support to ag markets to end last week.
- President Trump stated yesterday that he plans to start sending tariff letters to countries as early as today. He also stated yesterday that any BRICS countries that exhibit "Anti-American policies" will be subject to an additional 10% tariff. The Treasury Secretary noted that several big trade agreements are close. He also mentioned that countries that don't meet the July 9th trade deal deadline will have tariffs resuming on August 1st. The local news in India stated over the weekend that India and the U.S. will be announcing a mini trade deal over the next 1 to 2 days.
- The EPA will be holding a public hearing on its proposed biofuels mandates for 2026 and 2027. The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow.
- The crop progress report will be released this afternoon. Corn and bean ratings are excepted to be steady or slightly better from last week's ratings. Corn was rated 73% good to excellent last week with beans at 66% good to excellent
- Deliveries for July 7th totaled 711 for meal, 61 for corn, and 24 for KC wheat. The last trading day for July contracts is July 14th.
- The western side of the corn belt saw good rains over the weekend with the eastern half seeing spotty showers. The weather forecast looks mostly the same as it did last week. Temps will continue to be on the warm side with highs in the mid-80s for most of the Midwest. Rain chances will increase this week with most of the Midwest seeing chances of rain. The heaviest totals will favor the west and southern Midwest. A ridge will keep the far western U.S. and western Canada dry. The extended forecast calls for continued warm temps with near normal precip chances.
- Mexico will see better rain chances this week. Conditions in Mexico are gradually improving from what had been another dry start to the season. India's monsoon has arrived quicker than average and is brining with it increased anticipation of a good growing season. Brazil should have a dry week, which will help with corn harvest there.
- Argentina is 62% done with corn harvest. Bean harvest there is complete. Winter wheat is 78% planted.