Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $4.18, up 12 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.33 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -15 1/2, up 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Data from the EIA in this morning's weekly ethanol report showed average daily production in the week ending June 27th at 1.076 mil bbls/day, which was down just 0.5% from last week but up 3.2% from the same week last year. Stocks in the week were seen at 24.117 mil bbls, which was similarly down 1.2% from last week but up 3% from last year.

• We estimated corn usage in the week at 106.3 mil bu, which brings cumulative marketing year usage to 4.550 bil bu; this compares to 4.421 bil bu through the same week last year, and the USDA's full marketing year forecast of 5.500 bil bu. To reach the USDA's target, corn grind needs to average 105.6 mil bu for the rest of the marketing year.

• The Ukrainian Ag Ministry, following the recent completion of their marketing year, said they project final corn exports in the season at 22 MMTs, which if accurate, would be down significantly from the 29.5 MMTs exported in the 2023/24 season. The Minister said the reductions were likely due to reduced production and logistical challenges.

Summary:

Corn futures had one of their better days in weeks on Wednesday, as spill-over buying from the soybean market led to fund short covering throughout the morning and into the close. Until Trump announces that China will be making increased purchases of US corn, we see the move mostly as a selling opportunity though, with nothing really having changed fundamentally to this point and a massive US crop still looming in another couple months. That said, we don't see a lot of reason for Sep futures to fall below $4, but at the same time, can't justify a lot of upside price action either.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.53 1/2, up 23 3/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.48, up 20 3/4 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $276.80, up $3.10/ton; outside day higher, new contract low at 271.0
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 55.02, up 1.36 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): 5 1/2, up 3 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Soybeans rallied Wednesday on unconfirmed rumors that President Trump would be announcing a recommitment to the Phase One trade agreement by China at a rally in Iowa tomorrow evening.

• While we can neither confirm nor deny such an announcement, we would offer caution against chasing a market on rumors ahead of a three-day holiday weekend; should Trump not make any comment regarding China tomorrow evening, Sunday night's trade could very well remove the premium that has been inserted today.

• Soybean oil prices again saw gains of more than 2% on Wednesday, as buyers continue to see value at current price levels based on what should be increased domestic demand in the short and medium term due to positive developments on 45Z in recent days.

Summary:

It was a good ol fashioned China day in the soybean market on Wednesday, as fresh rumors of a potential return to the Phase One purchase agreement, or at least something similar, led to a flurry of mid-morning buying that lasted into the close. We said it numerous times this past winter and spring that we didn't see any such agreement as likely due to China's significant shift in purchasing habits over the past several years and their shift to become less reliant on the US, and we would see these arguments as still true today despite the recent rumors. China does not need US beans like they did 10-20 years ago, which makes today's pop interesting. Be prepared for increased volatility tomorrow and Sunday evening, with the market closed Friday.

? Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.64, up 15 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.84, up 14 3/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Government data from Ukraine shows wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year that ended Monday at 15.723 MMTs, which is down just under 18% from last year. USDA currently sees Ukraine's 2025/26 wheat exports at 16.5 MMTs.

Summary:

US wheat harvest will likely surpass the 75% mark in the coming days, meaning the market could be past the heaviest of the seasonal selling pressure. However, ongoing cash price weakness in Europe and Russia still looks to potentially the upside in the short term, as any rally in US prices comes at the expense of export competitiveness.

Corn

• July futures have entered the delivery period, but the September contract has had no issue picking up the downward momentum; prices have made new contract lows multiple times again over the past week, with the current 4.00 1/4 level being nearby support this week.

• A failure here likely leads to a retest of the low 3.90's area, which marks an open chart gap on the continuation chart left from the expiration of the September contract last fall.

• Resistance over the next week will be seen first at 50% retracement of the recent down move at 4.16, and then above here at the high from just before that down move started, which is at 4.31 3/4.

• RSI has rebounded slightly this week to 41.5, but is still closer to being oversold than otherwise.

Soybeans

• Little new to talk about on the soybean chart again this week, as prices have remained sideways for the most part. As was the case last week, the even $10 level continues to be longer term support, with a close below here likely leading to a retest of the spring lows in the August contract at 9.82 3/4.

• 50% retracement of the most recent down move comes in at 10.49 5/8, which will be first resistance this week. Above here, 62% retracement is at 10.57 1/2, while the longer term upside objective is the recent reaction high at 10.82 1/2.

• RSI today is seen at a neutral 48.6, which isn't overly supportive of either breaks or rallies.

In Other News

• Livestock markets traded in the green on Wednesday:
• August live cattle: $212.45, up $1.70
• August feeder cattle: $309.02, up $3.00; outside day higher
• August lean hogs: $107.90, up 95 cents; also outside day higher

• Outside markets were mixed/higher on Wednesday, led to the upside by crude oil:
• Crude Oil Futures: up $1.80-1.90/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 20 points, the S&P500 index is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 130 points
• US $ Index: unchanged to 5 points lower

• This morning's EIA report also showed updated petroleum stocks data for the week ending June 27th; crude oil stocks in the week increased 3.845 mil bbls to 418.951 mil, gasoline stocks increased 4.188 mil bbls to 232.126 mil, and distillate stocks declined 1.71 mil bbls to 103.622 mil.
• Implied gasoline demand in the week was estimated at 8.640 mil bbls/day, compared to 9.688 mil last week and 9.424 mil in the same week last year.

• President Trump earlier this morning, via a post to Truth Social, said that he had completed a trade deal with Vietnam; this marks the third deal announced ahead of the July 9th deadline, following previous announcements with the UK and China.
• The post mentioned Vietnam would pay the US a 20% tariff on all goods imported into the country, and a 40% rate on any transshipping. Trump said in return that Vietnam would be opening their markets to US products (0% tariffs), which he says has never been done before.
• US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a post on X that the deal would be huge for US farmers, with Politico adding that the agreement included $2.9 bil worth of US ag goods. Vietnam imports 10-15 MMTs of corn annually, with most of this coming from South America.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Models continue to be in good agreement on a return of precip to the Midwest next week following another few days of general dryness, as southwestern US ridging allows thunderstorm activity to impact an area from the south-central Plains to the Great Lakes.

• Temperatures look to continue being variable throughout most of the Corn Belt through the end of the week and into next, as the progressive upper air flow allows interchanging periods of average and above average temperatures. There currently exists little to no threat of any prolonged periods of extreme heat through the Corn Belt.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two precip maps continue to trend wetter beyond next week, as almost the whole of the eastern US sees average to above average moisture potential into mid-July.

• Cooler air continues to be seen lingering through the south-central US and into the western Corn Belt into mid-month, with there being little change from yesterday's forecast.

• On the global side, most of central and northern Europe are expected to see improved rainfall next week, with central Ukraine also expected to see better rains. China's growing regions are also expected to see good rains through next week, though temperatures will remain mostly above average.