AM Comments July 1 2025

Posted on Jul 01 at 07:00

Good morning. The start of the new month has brought additional selling pressure at least early on this morning, as the corn and soybean markets are lower to start Tuesday trade. The space just can't seem to find anything bullish to grab hold of; yesterday's USDA numbers failed to offer up anything of note, crop conditions unexpectedly improved in yesterday afternoon's weekly update, Brazil's crop is seemingly getting bigger by the day, any time we get close to a trade deal, it either falls apart or is completed without any mention of US ag, and the hot/dry weather forecasts everyone was concerned about in March/April, have at least to this point, failed to materialize. The combination has produced a trading environment that has made rallies difficult to come by, which likely now continues over short term into pollination. Corn futures are trading 5-6 cents lower to start this morning, soybean futures are trading 6-9 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-6 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $2/ton, and soybean oil is up around 20 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 30 points, and the US$ index is down 30-40 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is down 70 points.

 

Today's Reports: Monthly JOLTs Jobs Data; USDA Monthly Fats and Oils/Grain Crushings; API Energy Stocks

 

• The Monday data set from the USDA failed to alter pre-existing market outlooks in either the corn or the soybean markets, as numbers on both the stocks and acreage sides were near expectations. To view our report PowerPoint slides, please click here; to view the PDF version of the stocks report, please click here; and to view the PDF version of the acreage report, please click here.

 

• Also out yesterday was weekly crop progress data, which showed corn conditions improving 3% in the week ended Sunday the 29th to 73% G/EX. At the state level, CO and NE both improved 7%, while PA was up 6% and and ND was up 4%. IL, NC, and TN all saw 3% declines on the week. Silking advanced 4% on the week to 8%, which compares to 10% last year and 6% on average.

 

• Soybean conditions in yesterday's report were again steady on the week at 66% in the G/EX category; at the state level, LA was up 5% and AR was up 4%, while SD, NE, KS and MO were all up 3%. TN fell 10% on the week, MS was down 9%, and IL was down 7%. Blooming advanced 9% on the week to 17% (18% last year and 16% avg), and 3% of the crop is seen setting pods, compared to 3% last year and 2% avg.

 

• Winter wheat harvest was seen advancing 18% on the week to 37%, while crop conditions fell 1% in the G/EX category to 48%. On spring wheat, G/EX conditions also fell 1% on the week to 53%. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.

 

• The CME Group last night on day two of the July delivery period assigned 642 contracts of soybean meal for delivery, along with 503 contracts of soybeans, 310 contracts of KC wheat, 193 contracts of Chicago wheat, 43 contracts of rice, 7 contracts of soybean oil, and 1 contract of hard red spring wheat.

 

• The USDA is set to release monthly soybean crush and corn grind data at 2pm central time this afternoon; the fats and oils report is expected to show US soybean crush in the month of May at 204.7 mil bu, which would be up just over 1% from the April figure, and up nearly 7% from May of last year. Soybean oil stocks as of May 31 are estimated at 1.871 bil lbs, which would be down 5% from April and down 15% from last May. Of note, NOPA previously estimated May crush at just under 193 mil bu, while stocks were seen at 1.373 bil lbs; NOPA members accounts for roughly 95% of US soy crush.

 

• For the grain crushings report, traders see corn used for ethanol in the month of May at 447.4 mil bu, which would be down just under 2% from the same month last year.

 

• CONAB's weekly crop progress update, released last night, showed the country's safrinha corn harvest has reached 17% complete as of the 28th, which compares to 48% last year and the five-year average of 28%. The extended rainy season through May and into June has been the main reason for the delays, but this has also significantly added to yield. Private firm AgRural added that frosts also slowed harvest activity in the center-south of the country over the past week, further adding to the delays.

 

• According to Ukraine's Ag Ministry, total grain exports in the 2024/25 marketing year, which ended yesterday, totaled 40.6 MMTs; this is down more than 20% from 2023/24, and includes 15.7 MMTs of wheat, 2.3 MMTs of barely, and just under 22 MMTs of corn. Corn exports saw the biggest decline at the crop-specific level, falling more than 25% from last year.

 

• US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins on Monday said that Italy would be increasing its imports of US soybeans as part of an effort to rebalance trade between the countries, adding that the two would be forming a joint task force with the goal of promoting ag trade. The announcement comes amid ongoing discussions between the Trump administration and leaders of the entire EU, which have not made much progress in recent weeks ahead of the July 9th reciprocal deadline.

 

• The latest reports coming out of the US Senate indicate further progress as far as the 45Z clean fuel tax credit is concerned, as the newest version of the bill calls for a complete ban on biofuels made with materials sourced from outside North America; the House version of the bill, which passed a few weeks ago, would've allowed foreign feedstock fuels to claim up to 80% of the credit. President Trump has still indicated in recent days that he'd like to see the bill passed by this weekend's July 4th holiday.

 

• The USDA on Monday announced a phased reopening of cattle imports from Mexico beginning on July 7th; the phasing will be a slow process, with the port at Laredo, TX not expected to reopen until mid-September. Cattle imports from Mexico were halted on May 11th after the screwworm pest that hasn't been a problem in the US for decades was found to be quickly moving north in Mexico.

 

• Weather forecasts were little changed overnight for the rest of this week, as most of the Midwest continues to expect dry conditions over the next several days before thunderstorm activity is expected to return precip to the area next week. Through Friday night, the EU forecast sees 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the Dakota's and MN, but nowhere else in the Corn Belt is expected to receive more than a tenth or two.

 

• Th EU's week two outlook trended wetter overnight in the east, and is now more in-line with the GFS model this morning. Both see average to slightly above average precip potential through most all of the Corn Belt into July 15th, which should be beneficial to corn pollination. Models continue to see the wettest conditions in the period through the southeast and along the Gulf coast.

 

• Temperature forecasts were also little changed overnight last night, and continue to show cooler air in the central part of the US bisecting warmer air both in the west and the east over the next 5-10 days. Warmest temps continue to be forecast west of the Rockies, but highs in the east also look to stay generally on the warm side into next week, with IN/OH/TN/KY expecting highs in the lower 90's still by Monday next week.