AM Comments June 30 2025

Posted on Jun 30 at 06:55

Good morning. And welcome to another USDA data day. Ag futures at the CBOT are mixed this morning ahead of the much anticipated quarterly stocks and acreage figures that are due out from the USDA later today, while weekend news was otherwise again filled with trade-related/geopolitical headlines, topped by Canada. President Trump indicated late last week that trade talks with our northern neighbor had been shut down over certain technology taxes, only for Canadian officials over the weekend to withdraw the tax in order to restart discussions. While the markets don't seem overly jittery about the situation this morning, it also underscores the looming July 9th tariff deadline, which is now just six trading sessions away; this would lead us to believe headlines regarding trade deals (or the lack thereof) will likely be elevated this week and into next. Corn futures to start the new week are trading unchanged to 4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 1-3 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 1-3 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down around 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 250 points, and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 30 points and the NASDAQ is up 150 points.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly Export Inspections; USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; USDA June Acreage; Weekly Crop Progress

 

• Friday afternoon's CFTC Commitment of Traders report for the week ending June 24th showed fund traders in the week were sellers of 35,717 contracts of soybeans (net-long 23,448), and were buyers of 2,506 contracts of corn (net-short 182,282), and buyers of 16,686 contracts of Chicago wheat (net short 64,667). In soy products, funds sold 2,999 contracts of meal (net-short 110,080) and sold 1,824 contracts of oil (net-long 44,319).

 

• Of note, this is the sixth straight week of fund selling in Chicago wheat, and also the 10th of the last 12, while the fund short position in meal has reached another new record.

 

• For today's USDA reports, traders see quarterly corn stocks as of June 1 at 4.641 bil bu, which would be down from 4.997 bil bu last year; soybean stocks are seen at 980 mil bu vs 970 mil last year, and wheat stocks are seen at 836 mil vs 696 mil last year. On the acreage side, corn and soybean acres are both seen slightly higher from March at 95.35 and 83.66 mil respectively, while wheat acres are seen down slightly at 45.44 mil.

 

• According to the CME Group, there were 643 contracts of July bean meal assigned for Frist Notice Day, along with 315 contracts of KC wheat, 262 contracts of rice, 200 contracts of soybeans, 182 contracts of hard red spring wheat, 10 contracts of Chicago wheat, and 7 contracts of soybean oil; there were no corn deliveries assigned.

 

• Data from StatsCan released last week shows all Canadian wheat area for 2025 at 26.93 mil acres, which was below both the average trade guess and the March estimate but would still be up about 1% from last year. Canola area is seen down 2.5% from last year at 21.46 mil acres, while corn acres are seen up 2.2% from last year and soybean acres are seen up 0.5% from last year at 3.7 and 5.7 mil acres respectively.

 

• In a separate report, StatsCan also showed May canola crush in the country at 831.2k tons, which was down nearly 10% from the same month last year. Cumulative crush in the season that began August 1 is seen at 9.587 mil tons, which is up just under 4% from last year.

 

• Argentina's government on Friday said that they would be extending lower export tariff rates for wheat and barley through March 31 of next year, but the extension does not apply to corn or soybeans, along with some other crops; reduced tariff rates for these crops are still set to increase on July 1.

 

• US federally inspected pork production in the week ending June 28th was up just over 2% from the week prior at 518 mil lbs, while beef production in the week was down 0.4% at 484 mil lbs. Cumulative pork production in the year is now down 1.6% from last year 13.53 bil lbs, while beef production is down 3.2% at 12.7 bil lbs.

 

• Other big headline news coming out of the weekend along with Canada has been Trump's tax bill, which has been grinding its way through the US Senate in recent weeks; the latest on the bill includes a "vote-a-rama" amendment session, which is expected to begin at the White House somewhere around 8am central time this morning following more than 20 hours of debate and a reading of the entire 900 page+ text over the weekend. Trump has continued to tout a July 4th deadline for passage of the bill, which is Friday.

 

• Aside from likely trade-related headlines this week with Canada and other countries, the financial space in the US will also have some measure of focus on the June employment report, which is set for release on Thursday before markets close for the long holiday weekend. A Reuters poll shows economists see a hiring increase of 129,000 jobs in the month, which if accurate, would be slightly below May's 139,000 increase.

 

• Weekend weather was once again a mixed bag for most of the Midwest, with satellite-based rainfall maps showing good rains of around 1-2" falling in parts of KS/OK/MO and then also further to the north in parts of MN/SD/NW IA. However, there were also notable dry pockets, as most of the rest of IA and further east into IL and northern IN were left on the dry side.

 

• For this week, there is good model agreement on things remaining mostly quiet as far as precip goes, with just trace amounts to maybe a half inch of rain expected between now and early Saturday morning for most all of the Corn Belt. The progressive ridge/trough pattern looks to also remain in place, which means heat seen in the western/northwestern US today will make its way east through the week this week, keeping highs for most of the Midwest in the upper 80's/lower 90's ballpark for most of this week, with some locally warmer air possible.

 

• Outlooks into the second week of July continue to show above average moisture potential for most all of the eastern US, but as a lot of this precip comes in the form of convective thunderstorm activity, it will be difficult to predict exactly what locations get what amounts until the systems make it more into the short term forecast. That said, overall crop threats into pollination look to remain mostly minimal at least as of today, with the ongoing mix of moisture/warm weather/humidity continuing to create near-ideal growing conditions through the Corn Belt.

 

• Good luck with today's reports! We have little insight to what the numbers might say, but should the data be as expected, markets will likely quickly return to focusing on weather, as crop size remains the most outsized piece of the price discovery puzzle into August and September.