AM Comments June 27 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets are higher in light volume this morning to begin wrapping up the week, with the feed-grain markets of corn and wheat leading the way. Late afternoon headlines regarding some sort of a limited trade deal between the US and China that had been signed in recent days failed to garner much buying excitement in the overnight markets, as purchases of US ag products were not included in the agreement. Aside from any further additional details on this, Friday looks to be a day of position squaring and short covering, as all eyes will be on the USDA's numbers come Monday and we are going into another 48+ hour period of possibly changing weather forecasts. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 5-6 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-6 cents higher. Products are quietly higher, soybean meal is up around 30 cents//ton, and soybean oil is up 10-15 points. Outside markets are in the green, crude oil futures are up 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 130 points, and the US$ index is up 10-15 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 90 points.
Today's Reports: Monthly PCE Price Index; CFTC Commitment of Traders
- Statistics Canada is set to release their final principal acreage estimates for the current season this morning at 7:30am central time; according to a survey of Bloomberg analysts, the data is expected to show total wheat area at 27.7 mil acres, which would be up 0.2 mil acres from the March estimate and up 0.9 mil acres from last year. Canola acreage is seen at 21.9 mil acres compared to 21.6 in March and 22.0 last year, while soybean acres are seen down 0.1 mil from both last year and March at 5.6 mil acres.
- For Monday's USDA reports, traders see quarterly corn stocks as of June 1 at 4.641 bil bu, which would be down from 4.997 bil bu last year; soybean stocks are seen at 980 mil bu vs 970 mil last year, and wheat stocks are seen at 836 mil vs 696 mil last year. On the acreage side, corn and soybean acres are both seen slightly higher from March at 95.35 and 83.66 mil respectively, while wheat acres are seen down slightly at 45.44 mil.
- The USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from yesterday afternoon showed the US hog herd as of June 1 at 75.137 mil head, which was up 0.5% from the March figure and up just 0.3% from June of last year. Breeding hogs totaled 5.979 mil head, down 0.5% from last year, while market hogs totaled 69.158 mil head, up 0.4% from last year. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.
- The weekly crop update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina showed the country's soybean harvest had advanced to 98.3% complete over the past week, while corn harvest advanced just 5% in the pat week to 55.3% complete. The group once again left production estimates unchanged, with soybeans seen at 50.3 MMTs and corn seen at 49 MMTs. Wheat planting advanced 12.4% on the week to 72.7% complete.
- Staying in Argentina, official export data for June shows farmers in the first 18 days of the month nearly doubled their soybean sales in the period from a year ago due to the expiring export tax break in another couple weeks on July 1. Taxes on soybean sales will increase from 26% currently to 33%, which producers front loading as many sales as possible to try and avoid the extra tax.
- The International Grains Council (IGC) said in their latest monthly report that world grain stocks in the 2025/26 season would be up 1 MMT from their previous estimate to 586 MMTs; global wheat production was seen 2 mil tons higher than last month at 808 MMTs, while corn production was lowered by 1 MMT to 1.276 bil MTs.
- Similarly but unrelated, the European Commission in its latest crop update raised their estimate of total grain production in the EU by nearly 3 MMTs from previous to 282.9 MMTs. Soft wheat production was estimated at 128.2 MMTs vs 126.6 previous, and corn production was estimated at 64.6 MMTs vs 63.8 previous.
- Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending June 21st were up a little under 4% from the week prior according to the USDA at 760k tons. Corn shipments at 514k tons were down 2.3% on the week, while soybean shipments at 213k tons were up 10.4% on the week. STL barge freight rates were up 80 cents on the week to $13.33/short ton.
- Sources from Iran overnight denied that nuclear talks were set to resume with the US next week, which seems to directly contradict President Trump's claims yesterday that some sort of deal could be reached in the next several days. The ceasefire agreed to last weekend appears to still be holding, but it is unclear at this point what the next steps in the conflict might be, or when they may occur.
- US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, as well as counterparts on the Chinese side, said overnight that a framework trade agreement had been reached between the two sides, largely finalizing details that had been worked out previously in Geneva, Switzerland. Lutnick told reporters that US countermeasures would be lifted, but only once rare-Earth metals began flowing from China. Lutnick also mentioned that the White House had "imminent plans" to reach agreements with 10 additional trading partners, but gave no further detail.
- Good rains continued to impact the northern/northwestern Corn Belt on Thursday, with satellite data showing an additional 0.1-1" through generally N MO, IA, MN and WI. Some locally good totals of an inch+ were also seen in parts of OH and N IN, but were far more scattered in nature.
- Through the weekend, the EU forecast calls for additional scattered rains across most of the eastern half of the US, though totals look to likely be light and coverage will be difficult to forecast. Nonetheless, the removal of riding from the southeastern US should be overall crop-positive as we head into next week. The model then shows 1-3" of total precip for the area through the end of next week, but again, exact amounts/locations will be variable and difficult to predict.
- Temperatures over the weekend will be warm again for the most part, as a bulk of the Corn Belt looks to see highs in the mid-90's throughout the day on Saturday, with mid/lower 90's expected then on Sunday.
- Have a great weekend! Stay cool!