Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.09 1/2, down 3/4 cents; new contract low at 4.08
• December Corn (CZ): $4.21, down 1 1/2 cents; new contract low at 4.19 1/4
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 5 1/2, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 19th showed old crop corn sales in the week at 741k MTs, with featured buyers being Colombia (191k MTs), Japan (178,900 MTs), and Mexico (105,300 MTs); unknown destinations were buyers of 100,400 MTs.

• In the new crop, sales for the week totaled 306k MTs, with Mexico taking 138,500 MTs and unknown destinations taking 124k MTs.

• For Monday's report's traders are looking for quarterly corn stocks to come in at 4.641 bil bu, which would compare to 4.997 bil at the same time last year. On the acreage side, planted acres are seen at 95.35 mil, which if accurate would be up just marginally from March's estimate of 95.3 mil.

• Weekly drought monitor data this morning showed 16% of the US corn area experiencing D1-D4 drought conditions, which is down 1% from last week. IL sees just 10% of its area ranked in this category, while IA is at 55% and IN is at 23%.

Summary:

Old crop corn futures at least showed signs of life throughout the day on Thursday before eventually rolling over and closing lower for a fourth straight day this week. We regret beating the dead horse, but it remains the case that as long as Midwest forecasts continue to stay conducive to crop development through pollination in July, it will simply be difficult for the corn market to sustain a rally that amounts to anything other than a brief bout of short covering. Notable for Monday is that corn acres have fallen outside the range of trade guesses four of the last six years, which could be the spark the bull camp needs to buck the current downward momentum.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.22 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.16 1/2, down 2 cents
• July Soybean Meal (MN): $270.90, down $5.10/ton; new contract low at 270.60
• July Soybean Oil (LN): 52.52, up 0.70 cents/lb
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): -5, down 3/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported daily export sales flashes of 110,000 MTs of soybeans for delivery to Egypt during the 2024/25 marketing year. Of note, this is the first flash soybean sale since May 12th.

• On the weekly side, old crop sales were seen at 403k MTs in the week, with featured buyers being the Netherlands (63,400 MTs), Mexico (60,600 MTs), and Egypt (60,000 MTs); unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 38,600 MTs in the week. New crop sales were better than expected at 156k MTs, with Mexico taking 57,200 MT's and unknown destinations taking 55k MTs.

• Meal futures made new contract lows for a fifth consecutive session today, as overnight news regarding Chinese purchases of Argentine meal for the first time since 2019 further added to the bearish supply cloud that has been overhanging the market all week.

• For Monday's reports, traders see quarterly soybean stocks at 980 mil bu, which compares to 970 mil bu the same time last year. On acres, traders see planted acreage at 83.7 mil acres, which like corn would be up just marginally from the March estimate of 83.5 mil acres.

• Weekly drought monitor data showed just 12% from of the US soybean area in D1-D4 drought, which is also down 1% from last week.

Summary:

Higher trade in the bean oil market was unable to lift soybean values throughout the day today, as spillover selling from the meal market instead stole the show. The first daily sales flash in over a month indicates non-China business is beginning to increase, with US beans competitive with Brazil through late summer due to good China business there in recent weeks that has caused values to rise. Like we mentioned in our mid-day comments, the good business from China to Brazil has limited interest in new crop US supplies, with China still having zero US purchases on the books for 2025/26.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.21, down 7 1/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.59 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -15 3/4, up 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly exports this morning for wheat showed sales in the week of 255k MTs, which was below trade expectations; featured buyers in the week were Japan (93,600 MT's) and Mexico (83,200 MTs).

• For Monday's reports, traders see quarterly wheat stocks at 836 mil bu, which compares to 1.237 bil bu last year. Planted acreage is seen at 45.4 mil, which matches the March estimate.

• Drought monitor data for the week shows 20% of the US winter wheat area in D1-D4 drought, up from 14% last week, while 25% of the spring wheat area is in the same condition, up from 22% from last week.

Summary:

Not a lot of new news in the wheat market on Thursday, aside from minor Russian crop adjustments that we mentioned this morning. Harvest is gaining steam across the southern Midwest, with sources in both the southwest and the southeast indicating good yields and little to no quality issues.

In Other News

• Livestock markets remained choppy:
• August live cattle: $209.20, up 22 cents
• August feeder cattle: $303.30, up $1.00
• July lean hogs: $112.32, down 50 cents

• Outside markets were mixed Thursday:
• Crude oil futures: up 40-50 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 400 points, the S&P500 index is up 50 points, and the NASDAQ is up 200 points
• US $ Index: down 40-50 points; new contract low in the Sep at 96.605

• Final GDP data for Q1 released earlier this morning showed the US economy contracted a bit faster through the first three months of 2025 than was initially anticipated amid slow consumer spending as a result of tariff uncertainties. The numbers showed GDP fell at 0.5% rate in the period, as opposed to the 0.2% that was estimated previously.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Short term weather through the end of the week and weekend is little changed from previous days this week, as southeastern US ridging is expected to continue subsiding, allowing storms and rainfall to return to the area by early next week.

• The EU's forecast is slightly drier this afternoon in the northwestern Corn Belt than was seen overnight into next week, but is wetter in the southeast and along the East Coast.

• Warmer air returns to the bulk of the Midwest over the weekend, but progressive air flow allows average temps to return by the middle of next week. Heat in the short term looks to stay mostly limited to the PNW and broader West Coast.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two precip maps are in better agreement today than in previous days this week, but still show rather variable precip chances throughout most of the Corn Belt through the first week in July.

• Temperature forecasts continue to show a pocket of cooler air in the south/southwestern US stretching up from Mexico in the extended period, but have kept warmth west of the Rockies and average to above average temps for most of the eastern US.