Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.19 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; new contract low at 4.17 1/4
• December Corn (CZ): $4.33 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 1 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; new lows for the move at 1/4

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly export inspection data for the week ending June 19th showed another strong week of corn loadings, with the USDA reporting inspections of 1.477 MMT's; while down 13% from last week, the figure is still up nearly 30% from the same week last year, and is behind only 2020/21 for this week in the last five years. Cumulative inspections of 53.547 MMT's are up 29% from last year.

• Tuesday trade will be keyed by other market data released later this afternoon including the weekly commitment of traders report from the CFTC and the weekly crop progress report from the USDA. It is expected that the CoT report will show additional fund selling in corn and wheat over the past week, while the soybean position is expected to be little changed.

• This afternoon's crop progress report will give the season's first silking percentage, while crop conditions are expected to hold steady or increase by 1 or 2 points in the G/EX category.

Summary:

New contract lows in old crop corn were the main market-specific story for corn on Monday, as the trade otherwise saw spill-over selling pressure from the wheat market, which was again considered the downside leader in the space. An afternoon sell-off in crude oil futures also didn't help matters any, but both old and new crop futures both had already made their lows for the day before this drop occurred. For tomorrow, crop progress updates this afternoon will likely key price direction at least initially in the overnight market, while ongoing geopolitical headlines will continue to impact prices on the margin as well.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.58 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.40 1/4, down 14 cents
• July Soybean Meal (MN): $282.40, down $1.70/ton; new contract low at 281.40
• July Soybean Oil (LN): 53.24, down 1.23 cents/lb
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): -3 1/4, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Export inspections in this morning's report were disappointing compared to trade expectations at just 193k MT's; the figure was down 14% from last week, but within the range of recent years' totals for the week. Cumulative inspections have now reached 45.616 MMT's, up 11% from last year.

• Product markets started the week lower, led to the downside by soybean oil; as with the rest of the space, spill over selling from the crude oil market through the noon hour pushed values to new lows, but the bulk of the day's downward pressure had already been had. The July contract has a downside objective of 50.61 this week, which would fill the gap made on Friday the 13th.

Summary:

There continues to be not a lot new specific to the soybean market, as exports remain seasonally slow and another 72 hours has come and gone without any further talk of a trade deal with China. Private analysts continue to be adamant that the current USDA new crop export estimate is too high without some sort of purchase agreement from Beijing, but its just difficult to make that claim with any sort of certainty months before the marketing year even begins. However, the bottom line generally remains that how this situation plays out will have the most outsized influence on bigger picture price direction through the rest of summer and fall as long as there are no production hiccups in the US.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.52 3/4, down 15 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.92 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -16 3/4, down 1 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Wheat inspections in this morning's weekly update totaled 255k MT's, which was at the lower end of trade expectations and down 34% from last week's figure. Cumulative inspections in the marketing year that started June 1 have reached 845k MT's, which is down 20% from last year.

• Russia's Deputy Prime Minister told reporters on Monday that the Ag Ministry had no intentions of updating its winter grain harvest estimate for 2025 despite recent state of emergencies being declared in several regions due to drought. The Ministry forecasted a total winter grain crop of 135 MMT's, of which roughly 90 MMT's was expected to be wheat.

• Crop progress data this afternoon is expected to show both winter and spring wheat conditions in the G/EX category as unchanged on the week, while winter harvest is seen advancing 10% to 20% complete.

Summary:

Wheat futures again saw selling pressure on Monday as world FOB values continued to decline as the global market remains a supply-based situation due to the onset of harvests both in the US and Europe. Furthermore, seasonals would argue additional selling pressure is likely ahead, with a downside objective in the December being the $5.40 area, which is just above the contract low made in May.

In Other News

• Livestock markets were mixed/quiet to start the week:
• August live cattle: $209.37, down 45 cents
• August feeder cattle: $302.80, up 35 cents
• July lean hogs: $113.45, up 67 cents; new contract highs at 113.70

• Outside markets:
• Crude oil futures: down around $5.00/bbl on the August; big outside day lower
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 300 points, the S&P500 index is up 50 points, and the NASDAQ is up 200 points
• US $ Index: down 20-30 points; also outside day lower

• Middle East headlines dominated the commodity space on Monday, as Iran launched a six-missile retaliatory attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which the US jointly operates. There were no casualties reported from the attack, and other social media stories claiming attacks on additional US bases in the area seem to be false.
• News outlets are reporting that the strikes seem to be largely a publicity stunt, as officials from both the US and Qatar were preemptively warned ahead of time. It appears the strike served a dual purpose of not showing weakness on the behalf of leadership in letting US strikes go unanswered, but also by showing the wherewithal to understand escalating the conflict with the US is likely not in Iran's best interest.
• Sources this afternoon are indicating President Trump is weighing options for further strikes with Pentagon staff, but it seems the general message from the White House is that the US is not interested in a broader conflict with Iran.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Weekend weather was largely as expected across the Midwest, with ridge-riding thunderstorms providing rainfall and some severe weather to parts of the northwestern Midwest. Satellite totals show the best rains of 1-2" fell in northern ND and MN, but these rains were also accompanied with several reports of strong winds and tornadoes that caused damage to grain storage facilities across the area.

• For this week, ongoing high pressure ridging will cause more of the same conditions to occur, as the northwestern part of the Corn Belt sees additional rain chances of up to 4" in some places, while the central and southern parts of the Midwest hold in a warm/dry pattern for most of the week.

• The rains and storms will bring a cool down in temps along with them, while this temperature gradient between west and east will also produce relatively windy conditions across the area for the first few days this week (pictured above).

? Extended Forecast:

• Our confidence in the extended forecast remains low into this week, as there continues to be fairly noticeable model disagreement on expected Midwest precip through the first week of July. The GFS model sees rains returning to the eastern and northeastern Midwest in the period, while the EU forecast is wetter across the mid-south and southeast, but still dry the central Corn Belt.

• Temperature-wise, we still have little new to report as the 10-15 day outlooks from both models still show above average warmth for the whole of the US, with especially warm temps seen west of the Rockies.