AM Comments June 24 2025
Good morning. Ag markets across the CBOT are again mostly lower this morning, with bean oil and wheat the downside leaders early on. Overnight news headlines have almost exclusively focused on Israel/Iran and the broader Middle East again which has seemingly produced more risk-off trade early on Tuesday despite an announced ceasefire yesterday afternoon seemingly falling apart less than 12 hours after it was announced. Otherwise, there continues to simply not be a lot of new news specific to corn, soybeans or wheat with the heart of the growing season dead ahead and the majority of the crop flourishing under high-humidity, greenhouse-like conditions in recent days; yesterday's crop progress report was as expected for the most part, and there just isn't a lot to balk about in terms of progress or growing conditions. The bull camp needs a spark to reverse current downward/sideways trending markets. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading around a penny lower, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 8-9 cents lower. Products are mixed on additional spread activity, with soybean meal up around $1/ton, and soybean oil down 1.20 cents/lb. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down another $2.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 260 points, and the US$ index is down 40 points; the S&P500 is up 50 points and the NASDAQ is up 220 points. Gold futures are down around $60/oz.
Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks
- Lot's of ag data out after the close yesterday, starting with the CFTC Commitment of Traders report from last week that was delayed because of the Thursday holiday; data showed fund traders were sellers of 20,768 contracts of corn in the week ending June 17th (now net-short 184,788), buyers of 33,528 contracts of soybeans (net-long 59,165, and buyers of 12,658 contracts of Chicago wheat (net-short 81,353).
- In soy products, funds were sellers of 20,272 contracts of soybean meal contracts in the week and were buyers of 21,374 contracts of soybean oil; this makes them now net-short 107,081 contracts of meal, and net-long 46,143 contracts of oil.
- Also out yesterday afternoon was the USDA's weekly crop progress report, which showed corn conditions declining 2% in the G/EX category on the week to 70%; at the state level, gains in the Delta states of LA/AR/MS were offset by declines of 6% in ND, as well as 3% in MO/IA/MI/IN and 2% in NE and IL. Corn emergence reached 97% this week, while 4% of the crop is seen silking.
- The report showed soybean conditions on the week in the G/EX category at 66%, which was unchanged from last week; at the state level, the Delta area again saw the most improvement on the week, with LA up 10% and AR/MS both up 8%, but these were offset by declines of 9% in KY, 6% in ND, and 3% in MO, IA, IN and MI. Soybean emergence hit 90% this week, while 8% of the crop is seen blooming.
- Conditions for both winter and spring wheat declined 3% in the G/EX category this week, with winter wheat seen at 49% G/EX and spring wheat seen at 54% G/EX. Winter wheat harvest advanced 9% on the week to 19% complete, while spring wheat emergence is seen at 93%. To view the full USDA report, please click here.
- Late yesterday afternoon, President Trump announced a ceasefire had been agreed to between Israel and Iran; however, overnight last night, Israel accused Iran of already violating the agreement by continuing to launch missiles. Trump this morning told reporters that he was unhappy with both sides, and said both had violated the agreement. It is not entirely clear at this point whether negotiations are ongoing or exactly where things stand, with Qatar's PM saying there will be indirect talks between Israel and Hamas over the next couple days.
- The EU's crop monitoring committee (MARS) on Monday raised it's estimate of soft wheat yields for the bloc from 6.04 t/ha previously to 6.05 t/ha now this month, citing high expectations in the southern part of the region. If accurate, the figure would be up 9% from last year, and would also be up around 5% from the five-year average.
- Spokespeople for Louis Dreyfus said on Monday that their company was planning to reopen a shuttered former Cargill-owned facility in Burns Harbor, IN, which is on the southern edge of Lake Michigan; the group said it plans for the port facility to be operational by early 2026, after having been idled since 2023. Data shows the facility, built in 1979, has just over 7 million bushels of storage capacity, as well as 200 rail cars and 20 barges, and can load handymax size vessels.
- Aside from ongoing happenings in the Middle East, the financial world Tuesday will otherwise have its attention turned towards to Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, who is slated to give testimony to Congress later today amid ongoing pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates. Odds are increasing that the Fed could lower rates at its next meeting in late-July, but the more probable timeline continues to be September, with traders seeing a more than 60% chance at rates being lowered ahead of Q4 as of this morning.
- Weather forecasts for this week were little changed overnight, and continue to offer rain and thunderstorms for the northwestern Midwest over the next few days while areas to the south and east remain dry. Totals have been increased marginally from yesterday through parts of IA and WI, but otherwise, model outlook is nearly identical to what was seen on Monday over the next five days.
- Week two precip maps, which get through the first week of July, are in better agreement this morning than was seen yesterday, but the EU model continues to be drier in the central Midwest than the GFS. Where there is good agreement is in the southwest and into Mexico, where both models, as well as the CPC's outlook, show well above average moisture potential in the period.
- On the temperature side, models this morning see this moisture in the southwest also allowing things to cool off a bit here over the next 5-10 days, with outlooks for the period now showing a fairly large pocket of below normal temps through the western parts of TX/OK/KS/NE and then into CO and NM. For the Corn Belt as a whole, the northern/northwestern areas will be on the cooler side of average most of the rest of this week, while areas further south and east will continue to see daytime highs in the 90's.