Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.28 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; outside day lower
• December Corn (CZ): $4.41 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents; inside day
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 3 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents
• For the week: CN was down 15 3/4 cents; CZ was down a penny and 3/4

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning announced 124,000 MT's of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year via the USDA's daily export reporting system.

• This morning's weekly export sales report, delayed a day for yesterday's holiday, showed old crop corn sales in the week ending June 12th at 904k MT's, with featured buyers being Japan (366,200 MT's), Mexico (209,000 MT's) and South Korea (191,000 MT's); unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 290,400 MT's in the week.

• For the new crop, sales totaled 155k MT's, with Mexico taking 62,400 MT's of the total and unknown destinations taking 65,000 MT's. The new crop sales were towards the upper end of trade expectations.

Summary:

Aside from export sales data this morning, it was a relatively quiet close to the week in the corn market today, as old crop futures made new lows for the move in light volume/choppy trade. Unless the weather takes an almost immediate shift negative or a trade deal is signed with text for US corn purchases, it would appear increasingly likely that futures will make a run for their contract lows made late last summer sooner rather than later, as there continues to otherwise simply not be a lot of bullish input present. Rains are falling across some of the drier areas of the northern/northwestern Corn Belt, which should at the very least keep crop conditions steady on Monday, if not bring about some slight improvement.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.68, down 6 3/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.60 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; outside day lower
• July Soybean Meal (MN): $284.10, down 80 cents/ton; new contract low at 282.70
• July Soybean Oil (LN): 54.47, down 0.30 cents/lb; outside day lower
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): -3 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents
• For the week: SN was down a penny and 3/4; SX was up 6 cents; MN was down $7.80/ton; and LN was up 3.86 cents/lb

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report showed old crop soybean sales at 540k MT's, which was above the upper end of trade expectations. Featured buyers in the week were Germany (122,900 MT's) and Mexico (101,700 MT's), while unknown destinations booked 63,200 MT's.

• New crop sales in the week totaled 75k MT's, with Mexico taking 57,900 MT's, Costa Rica taking 12,300 MT's, and Taiwan taking the remaining 5k MT's.

• Similar to last year, new crop sales pace is significantly behind that of previous years at this time, as China continues to remain almost entirely absent from the US soybean market. Purchases eventually began flowing last year, but amid the political differences between Washington and Beijing, without a trade deal we would assume more of these purchases get shifted to South America in the short term.

Summary:

Like corn, Friday was also a slow day for headlines in the soy complex, as biofuel related news was mostly absent and there continues to be little to no chatter out of China on a potential trade deal. After seeing higher trade for most of the week this week, fund selling emerged on Friday to drive values back below where they started on Monday in the old crop, which was disappointing for the bull camp.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.67 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $6.06, down 6 1/4 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -15 3/4, up 1/2 cent
• For the week: WN was up 24 cents; WZ was up 25 1/2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly wheat export sales this morning came in at 427k MT's, with featured buyers being Taiwan (95,500 MT's), the Philippines (89,600 MT's), Venezuela (59k MT's) and Thailand (55,500 MT's); unknown destinations in the week assigned out/canceled/rolled 85,500 MT's.

• Monday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC will be interesting, as it is assumed that a lot of this week's rally was the result of short covering by fund traders.

Summary:

July Chicago wheat futures probed the 200-day moving average this morning for the first time since February, but were unable to hold above here and ended up closing back lower by the end of the day. Aside from short covering, there wasn't a lot in this market to end the week either, as traders are staring down the barrel of winter crop harvest across both the US and Europe. Price direction in the short term looks to be a product of harvest hedge pressure and fund positioning.

In Other News

• Livestock markets were mixed on Friday ahead of this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report:
• August live cattle: $209.82, down $1.85; outside day lower
• August feeder cattle: $302.45, down $1.72
• July lean hogs: $112.77, up 60 cents; new contract highs at 113.02

• The USDA's June Cattle on Feed report showed the US feedlot herd as of June 1 at 11.442 mil head, which was down just 1% from last year. Placements in May were seen at 1.886 mil head, or 92% of last year, while marketings were seen at 1.758 mil head, or 90% of last year.

• Outside markets:
• Crude oil futures: up around 40 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 50 points, the S&P500 index is down 25 points, and the NASDAQ is down 120 points
• US $ Index: down 20 points

• Overall, there wasn't a lot new of note on the Middle East situation throughout the day on Friday, as leaders around the world continue to give opinions on the situation while Israel and Iran each continue to bomb each other's cities. Russian President Putin gave his support to Iran in a press conference with reporters earlier today, while White House reporters indicate President Trump presided over another national security meeting regarding the matter.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Like we talked about this morning, the main forecast feature through the weekend and into next week is the southeastern US high pressure ridge, that will bring warm and dry conditions to the southeastern quarter of the US, while areas to the north of the ridge see thunderstorm activity.

• The EU model's precip outlook through the end of next week is above, with notable precip difference clearly visible for IA/WI and the northern Corn Belt, compared to IL and IN and areas further south and east.

• Highs across the Midwest will reach into the upper 90's/100's over the weekend, with warm air then mostly lingering through next week before low pressure brings a slow cool down starting in the west the back half of next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two forecasts continue to show disagreement on their precip solutions, as the EU's model sees the ridge hanging around into the first part of July, while the GFS model sees rains returning to the southeastern US by this time.

• Temperature forecasts into the end of the month remain little changed from recent days, with the 10-15 day outlooks from both the EU and the GFS models showing above normal warmth throughout the the whole of the country, though the warmest temps stay centered on areas west of the Rockies.