AM Comments June 20 2025

Posted on Jun 20 at 07:05

Good morning. Happy Friday. Ag markets are coming out of the 24 hour Juneteenth break mixed and in actually somewhat decent volume this morning, with corn and soybeans trading in the green and the wheat market trading lower. News specific to the space was largely quiet on Thursday, with trader focus today going into the weekend remaining mostly on the Iran/Israel situation and the broader global geopolitical landscape. The US Midwest looks to warm up a bit to more summer-like heat over the weekend and into next week, but amid good soil moisture levels in most areas at the moment, there should continue to not be a lot of crop stress in the short term. Like we've said repeatedly in recent weeks, with crop projections where they currently are, it will take some sort of issue on the weather side or a surprise on the June acreage update to be able to sustain any sort of upside price move. Corn futures heading into the weekend are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1.50/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-45 points. Outside markets are also trading mixed, crude oil futures are up around 20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 70 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.

 

Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; June Cattle On Feed

 

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 12th, delayed a day due to yesterday's holiday, is expected to show old crop corn sales in the week between 600k-1.2 mil MT's and old crop soybean sales between 0-400k MT's. On new crop, both corn and soybean sales are seen between 0-200k MT's, while new crop wheat sales are seen between 300k-600k MT's.

 

• USDA will release the June Cattle on Feed report later this afternoon; the report is expected to show the US feedlot herd as of June 1 at 11.456 million head, which would be down about 1% from last month. Placements in May are seen at 1.925 mil head, down about 6% from last month, while marketings in May are seen at 1.773 mil head, down about 9% from last month.

 

• The USDA's monthly livestock slaughter report, released on Wednesday, showed US commercial red meat production in the month of May at 4.38 bil lbs, which was down 5% from both April and from May of last year; beef production at 2.12 bil lbs was down 9% from last year, while pork production at 2.24 bil lbs was down just 2%. Cattle slaughter in the month was down 11% from last year, and hog slaughter in the month was down just 2% from last year. To view the full report, please click here.

 

• The weekly Argentina crop update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, released yesterday, showed a good week of wheat planting progress in the past week, with progress jumping more than 20% to 60.3% complete. Soybean harvest has nearly wrapped up, with the data showing progress at 96.5%, while corn harvest continues to lag at just 49.6% complete. The group made no production estimate updates for corn or soybeans, and made no planted area estimate adjustments for wheat.

 

• Ukraine's farm ministry said early this morning that the 2025 harvest there had begun, reporting farmers had harvested nearly 35,000 tons of grain so far as of the 19th. Private analyst APK-Inform said this comparers to just over 48,000 tons harvested through roughly the same date last year, as recent wet weather has caused a slower start to the campaign this season.

 

• The USDA earlier this week announced plans to open an $8.5 million facility in south Texas to combat the risk of the New World screwworm, which is a pest that is deadly to cattle herds. The facility is expected to be completed by the end of the year, and the announcement comes after the USDA announced a $21 million investment to renovate a similar already existing facility in Mexico.

 

• A joint statement between the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy praised a Supreme Court decision made earlier this week that ruled legal challenges to SRE's should be handled in one single court as opposed to multiple venues. Said the statement, "Allowing 12 different circuit courts to adjudicate SRE's would result in a fractured and inconsistent body of law, causing chaos and confusion in the marketplace.

 

• According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending June 14th were seen at 733k tons, which was up just 1% from the week prior; corn shipments at 526k tons were down 10% on the week, while soybean shipments at 193k tons were up 82% on the week. STL barge freight rates were up 40 cents on the week to $12.53/short ton.

 

• Following an unchanged interest rate out of the US Federal Reserve earlier this week, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway all trimmed their primary lending rates in the days following the decision; the Swiss decsion was largely expected by economists, but the cuts from both Switzerland and Norway caught markets off guard, as they were unexpected. The Bank of England held rates steady, but signaled a more dovish stance than was expected.

 

• President Trump gave Iran a two-week period to come to an agreement on a nuclear deal before making a decision on whether or not to add US weaponry to Israeli strikes on the country's nuclear facilities. Otherwise, the two sides have continued to trade missile and drone strikes as it does not appear any sort let-up in the hostilities looks to be on the horizon heading into the weekend with not a lot of new developments on a diplomatic solution seen in the past 48 hours.

 

• Satellite-based rainfall data from the past 48 hours shows just light rains through most of the Corn Belt Wednesday and Thursday, with totals ranging from a tenth or two to around an inch generally speaking with some areas of locally heavier precip. The CPC's storm report map though for Wednesday showed more than 500 reports of high winds through mostly IN and OH, while there were also 21 tornado reports.

 

• Forecast-wise, precip maps into next week are drier looking this morning, as the mid-week system from this week has come and gone and the southeastern US ridge is more clearly noticeable in both the EU and GFS outlooks. Ridge-riding thunderstorms look to provide precip of 2-6" for parts of NE/IA/MN/WI through the end of the week next week according to the EU model, though the nature of these storms will make exact totals/locations extremely hard to predict. South of here, little to no rain is expected over the next 10 days.

 

• Models then come out of agreement quickly beyond here, with the GFS week-two precip map this morning trying to show the high pressure ridge breaking down rather quickly, while the EU's week-two outlook shows continued above average dryness in the southeastern quarter of the US, as the ridge lingers into July. Week-two temperature maps remain mostly unchanged from earlier in the week, and continue to show above average heat through most all of the country into July.

 

• Have a good weekend! Stay aware Sunday evening of headlines regarding new developments in the Middle East over the next couple days, and also of any possible shifts in the weather forecasts for next week and into the end of the month.