Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.33 1/2, up 2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.44, up 5 1/4 cents
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 4 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; new low for the move at 2 1/4

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA showed daily production in the week ending June 13th down 1% from last week at 1.109 mil bbls/day, though this was still up more than 8% from last year.

• Ethanol stocks in the week were seen at 24.120 mil bbls, which was up 1.6% from last week and up 3.9% from the same week last year. This was the second lowest stocks figure of the 2025 calendar, above only last week.

• Corn usage in the week was estimated at 109.6 mil bu, which brings cumulative marketing year corn use to 4.337 bil bu; this compares to 4.211 bil bu through the same week last year, and the USDA's full marketing year forecast of 5.500 bil bu.

Summary:

Corn futures were led higher by the wheat market on Wednesday, as spill over short-covering related to the Iran-Israel conflict was the main theme throughout the session. Prices continue to remain at the lower end of the recent trading range, with it continuing to feel like up days are more corrective in nature than trend changing; the market needs something bullish either via weather (supply) or demand to get any sort of sustainable rally going.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.73 3/4, up 3/4 cent
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.68 1/4, up 1/2 cent
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): -2, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• US soybeans continue to be largely uncompetitive on the global market, with recent FOB data showing offers out of Argentina some 60 cents cheaper into China than those out of the US Gulf, while Brazil is some 20 cents cheaper.

Summary:

Quiet day across the soy complex on Wednesday, as there was little new on the biofuel front which left both product markets near unchanged. So long as US crush is expected to keep rising, the meal market will see ongoing bearish headwinds from increasing supply, which means the short meal/long oil spread activity seen in recent days could likely continue through summer and into fall. Otherwise, China and demand crop size remain the two most important questions to longer term price direction, will neither likely to be answered any time real soon.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.74 1/4, up 25 1/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $6.12 1/2, up 25 1/4 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -16 1/4, up 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Cash connected sources in Kansas are reporting some localized wind damage from recent thunderstorms that has lead to some concerns over quality and yield loss. It is unclear just how big of an area is effected.

• Otherwise, like we mentioned at the top, short covering was the main culprit for the day's action, based primarily on drought concerns in the European wheat belt. Some newswires have been talking for weeks about funds potentially over doing their short position, and this appears to largely be the case today.

Summary:

Wheat returned to the head of the line on Wednesday, as weather-based short covering led values to sharp gains throughout the session. The ongoing Iran-Israel situation also likely contributed to the short-covering, as traders are taking a general risk-off approach to the whole ordeal despite it not being directly related to agriculture.

Corn

• July corn has continue to trade mostly sideways over the past week, with values back near the lower end of the recent trading range. The market yesterday challenged last week's low at 4.29 1/4 but was unable to break through, which makes this level first support for the rest of this week.

• On a failure of this level, the contract low at 4.21 3/4 will be next support, with the even $4 level longer term support below here.

• On the top side this week, first resistance will be seen at Monday's high of 4.46 1/2, and then above here at the mid-May high of 4.64 3/4. The 200-day moving average today is at 4.62 3/4, which will also be resistance in this area.

Soybeans

• Unlike corn, soybeans have worked back to the top end of the recent trading range with Monday's high at 10.79 1/4 being less than 3 cents from the May high at 10.82. This will be first resistance over the next week, with a close above here potentially leading to a retest of the 2025 high made in February at 11.04 3/4.

• The major moving averages continue to be clustered close together, with the 50, 100, and 200-days all between 10.48 and 10.52; this will be first support this week. Then below here, support will come at the recent June low of 10.32 3/4, and then the March lows just above $10.

In Other News

• Livestock markets saw a turn-around-Wednesday, though feeders and hogs made new lows from yesterday before closing higher:
• August live cattle: $211.67, up $1.02; inside day higher
• August feeder cattle: $304.17, up 82 cents
• July lean hogs: $112.17, up 52 cents; outside day higher

• Outside markets had a quiet day on Wednesday, as traders took a small breather from the ongoing Middle East saga:
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 10 points, the S&P500 index is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is up 5 points
• US $ Index: up 10 points

• On the petroleum side of the weekly EIA report, data showed crude oil stocks in the week declined 11.473 mil bbls to 420.942 mil, while gasoline stocks were up 209k bbls at 230.013 mil and distillate stocks were up 514k bbls at 109.398 mil. Implied gasoline demand in the week was estimated at 9.299 mil bbls/day, compared to 9.170 mil last week and 9.386 mil in the same week last year.

• The US Federal Reserve once again held interest rates steady on Wednesday, while policymakers were unwavering in continuing to see two rate cuts between now and the end of the year. However, officials see inflation higher than the previous estimate at 3%, which is also well above the Fed's longstanding 2% target.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Forecasts show thunderstorm activity continuing to impact the eastern US through the night tonight and into tomorrow morning, before drier conditions are seen for the area then the rest of the week and into the weekend.

• Then for next week, models are in agreement on high pressure ridging setting up over the southeastern US, which will limit precip to the northern parts of the Corn Belt on the periphery of the ridge. The central and southern part of the Corn Belt looks to be hot/dry through most of next week.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two precip maps are in disagreement, with the EU model seeing the ridge hanging around into the opening days of July, while the GFS sees wetter than normal conditions through the mid-south and southeast where ridging will be present next week.

• Temperature forecasts show low pressure from the west bringing cooler temps to the central US next week, while the previously mentioned high pressure ridge will keep the eastern US hot over the next 5-10 days. 10-15 day temperature maps maintain warmth across the whole of the US, which has been the case for several days.