AM Comments June 18 2025
Good morning. Markets are mixed/quiet across the commodity space this morning, as tomorrow's holiday has caused a slow down in volume/interest at mid-week this week. Traders today will likely have their focus on any additional headlines out of the Trump administration regarding the Iran/Israel situation, as this looks to remain the number one talking point across most all markets for a second consecutive session. Otherwise, it remains a case of hurry up and wait on the ag news front, as there isn't a lot on the horizon besides weather forecasts that could materially impact prices until the quarterly stocks and acreage update from the USDA at the end of the month. Corn futures to start Wednesday morning are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are trading near unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are mixed/quiet, soybean meal is down around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 30 points. Outside markets are also quiet this morning, crude oil futures are trading either side of unchanged, the Dow Jones index is up 40 points, and the US$ index is down 15 points; the S&P500 is up 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 50 points.
Today's Reports: Weekly Jobless Claims; EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks; Fed Interest Rate Decision
- This morning's weekly ethanol production report from the EIA is expected to show daily ethanol production in the week ending June 13th averaging between 1.120-1.125 mil bbls/day, while stocks for the week are seen between 23.20-24.20 mil bbls.
- USDA on Friday is scheduled to release the June Cattle on Feed report; the report is expected to show the US feedlot herd as of June 1 at 11.456 million head, which would be down about 1% from last month. Placements in May are seen at 1.925 mil head, down about 6% from last month, while marketings in May are seen at 1.773 mil head, down about 9% from last month. The report will be out at 2pm central time Friday.
- Customs data from the EU, released yesterday, showed soybean imports in the season that ends at the end of the of the month have reached 13.58 MMT's through Sunday, which compares to 12.65 MMT's through the same period last year. Data also showed EU soybean meal imports in the season at 18.62 MMT's, up from 14.7 last year.
- A private German ag group on Tuesday said they see the country's total grain harvest this year at 41.4 MMT's, up from a previous estimate last month of 40.7 MMT's on mostly an increase in wheat production; the wheat crop is now seen at 21.5 MMT's, while barely is seen at 10.1 MMT's and corn is seen at 4.6 MMT's. If accurate, the total figure would be up 6% from last year.
- According to Russia's Ag Ministry, the duty on Russian wheat exports has been trimmed to 566 rubles/ton as of today, the 18th, with this in affect until June 24th; the previous rate was 652.5 rubles/ton. Barely duties remained unchanged at 0, and corn duties were increased from 359.9 rubles/ton to 397.3.
- There appears to be little new on the Middle Eastern front this morning despite repeated threats yesterday of some sort of development occurring by Tuesday evening. Trump has not made any sort of announcement on further US involvement in the conflict, while the Iranian ambassador to the UN, in a prerecorded televised addressed early this morning, said should the US get further involved that Iran would begin responding accordingly.
- The UN's nuclear watchdog did report overnight that an Israeli strike on the facility at Natanz in Iran had in fact hit the underground uranium enrichment facility there, after initial reports indicated only indirect damage. Spokespeople on the Iranian side have continued to tout a large retaliatory strike, but none has been seen to this point.
- Otherwise, though undoubtedly not as front-and-center as the geopolitical situation, the financial world Tuesday will at least be paying some sort of attention to this afternoon's interest rate decision and subsequent press conference from the US Fed, though it is almost a given that rates will be held steady again for the sixth consecutive month.
- As has been the case in recent meetings though, it will be important to see if rhetoric following the decision shows any signs of change, as we will also get an updated 'dot plot', which shows what policymakers' expectations of future rate cuts are. In March, officials saw two rate cuts as likely by the end of the year, but there are some analysts who feel this could be changed to just one in today's update.
- Wednesday looks to be a fairly active weather day across the US Midwest, with radar this morning showing a fairly large storm system spinning through KS/OK that is expected to work its way north and east through the day today and into tomorrow. Over the next 24 hours, the EU model is showing 0.5-1" of precip possible for an area stretching generally from OK to MI, with some locally heavier amounts possible.
- Once this system then clears, most of the Midwest should see a couple days of drier weather to end the week and going into the weekend. Then for next week, models this morning show high pressure ridging setting up in the southeastern US, which will limit precip here and allow ridge-riding thunderstorms across the north of the ridge to provide precip to the upper Midwest and northern Corn Belt. This makes the exact location of the ridge important, as any shift slightly further south will allow these rains to impact more of the central Corn Belt.
- Nothing new temperature wise this morning, as models continue to show warming temps in the eastern US through the weekend and the first part of next week, before low pressure in the west works east and brings temps back to more seasonally normal levels the end of next weekend/next weekend.
- As a reminder, there will be no markets at the CBOT tomorrow, Thursday June 19th, for the Juneteenth federal holiday. Trade will resume at 7pm central time Thursday evening, with then a normal day of trading to wrap up the week on Friday.