Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.31 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.38 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; inside day
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 7 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Slow news day Tuesday in the corn market, as yesterday's crop progress report didn't offer a lot of new input to the market. Conditions improved 1 % in the G/EX category which was mostly expected, while on the other end, the P/VP category was unchanged on the week at just 5%.

• Emergence at 94% was right on the five-year average, and up 7% from last week. The east continues to be the furthest area behind in the Corn Belt, with emergence in Ohio down 7% from last year and Pennsylvania down 5% from last year; Kansas is also 5% behind last year.

• One possible negative outcome from the Iran/Israel situation is that due to Iran being Brazil's number one corn buyer, any prolonged period of war in the country would likely lead to a decrease imports, which would mean Brazil would have additional corn to fulfill global demand elsewhere.

Summary:

Tuesday saw an active day of spread activity in the corn market, with old crop/new crop spreads dropping back near contract lows and flat price largely continuing to chop in the same range its been in most of the month. We have little insight into how further escalation in the Middle East might impact the corn market, but aside from that, it likely takes a weather event of some sort between now and the quarterly stocks/acreage report at the end of the month to move values significantly in either direction.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.74, up 4 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.67 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents
• July Soybean Meal (MN): $285.10, up $1.40/ton
• July Soybean Oil (LN): 54.79, down 0.32 cents/lb
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): -2 1/4, down 1/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Private exporters this morning reported daily sales flashes of 120,000 MT's of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year. This is the first daily sales flash since May 30th, and the first sales flash of meal since May 19th.

• Yesterday's crop condition report showed an unexpected weekly decline of 2% in the G/EX category to 66%, which is now 4% behind last year.

• On the progress side, planting progress is now a tick behind the five-year average at 93%, as delays continue to be seen in the east/southeast. Emergence reached 84% on the week, which compares to 80% last year and the five-year average of 83%.

• Bean oil futures saw a quieter day of trade than the past couple on Tuesday, as futures prices closed lower on the day after making new highs early in the overnight session last night. Simply put, nothing has been signed into law at this point, and until that happens, the trade will continue to have a lot of questions surrounding biofuel demand in the years ahead.

• Senate Republicans yesterday proposed a new version of Trump's tax bill that would see the credit for biofuels made from foreign feedstocks decreased by just 20%, as opposed to the House-passed version that completely eliminated the credit for said fuels.

• Note, trading limits for the soy complex will return to normal levels tomorrow, as bean oil did not make a limit move on Tuesday.

Summary:

Tuesday saw a quieter day on the biofuel policy front, as it seems the spec community has got their positioning squared away, at least for the short term. On the other side of the fence, meal prices made new contract lows this morning before reversing and closing higher, as spread activity based on ideas meal supplies in the US could balloon in the short term remained active early on. As for the beans themselves, a somewhat light day of volume would lead one to believe the higher price action seen during the day was possibly more corrective than not.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.49, up 12 1/2 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.87, up 13 1/4 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -16 1/2, down 3/4 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Chicago wheat futures were the upside leader in the space on Tuesday on what was likely a day of fund short covering, as newswires didn't have any other specific reason for the rally.

• Winter wheat conditions fell 2% on the week in the G/EX category to 52%, though the decline is largely viewed as seasonal as the crop reaches maturity ahead of harvest that will likely begin in the next week or two. Spring wheat conditions inversely improved 4% to 57% G/EX.

• Harvest of the winter wheat crop advanced 6% on the week to 10% complete, which trails last year by 15% and the five-year average by 6%. Spring wheat emergence was up 7% on the week to 89%.

Summary:

Short covering and risk-on in the Middle East were the main factors for higher price action in the week market on Tuesday, as newswires were void of any other specific headlines for the market. There are big crops coming in both the US and Europe, which will likely limit the upside in the longer term.

In Other News

• Livestock markets were lower to sharply lower on Tuesday:
• August live cattle: $210.65, down $4.90
• August feeder cattle: $303.35, down $6.87
• July lean hogs: $111.65, down 15 cents; new contract highs at 112.50

• The US Department of Homeland Security on Monday told staff members that it was reversing guidance issued last week that told agents not to conduct immigration raids at farms, hotels, and restaurants. These raids have been the center of nationwide protests in recent days.

• Sources familiar with situation are reporting that President Trump is seriously considering joining the war on Iran, with two Israeli sources saying they believed the moved was likely and that Trump planned on bombing Iran's underground enrichment facility. Newswires reported that German Chancellor Merz said a US decision would be made today, but no confirmation of such decision has been seen as of this writing.

• On trade, President Trump said that Japan was being "tough" in negotiations, and that the European Union had not yet offered what he felt was a fair deal. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One specifically about the EU, Trump said, "They're either going to make a good deal or they'll just pay whatever we say they have to pay."

• Outside markets:
• Crude oil futures: up around $3.00/bbl; inside day higher for July
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 280 points, the S&P500 index is down 50 points, and the NASDAQ is down 190 points
• US $ Index: up 80 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• An active weather pattern is expected to continue for the Midwest the rest of this week and into next week, as models continue to be in good agreement on several storm systems possible for the Corn Belt over the next 10 days.

• Temperatures will continue in a warming trend into the end of the month, but amid good moisture across most areas and the prospect for more in the forecast, crop stress should stay limited into the 4th of July holiday weekend.

? Extended Forecast:

• Ridging across the southeastern/eastern US is the main feature in the current tow week forecast, which will bring warm/dry conditions to FL and surrounding areas. The ability for Gulf moisture to continue making its way into the mid-section of the country though is keeping the week two forecast wet for areas north of here.

• We have no updates to the extended range temperature forecast for Tuesday, as models remain in good agreement on warmer than average biases for the whole of the country into the first days of July.