AM Comments June 17 2025
Good morning. Tuesday trade at the CBOT has started the morning in a reversal of yesterday's action, with the grain and meal markets slightly higher and the soybean and soybean oil markets slightly lower. Oil is once again the leader in the space this morning, with the July contract having made new highs for the move again overnight last night before selling emerged to push values lower into the morning. There isn't a lot new overnight from a news standpoint, which means Tuesday likely is another day of debating US biofuel policy and watching for any new updates on the plethora of ongoing geopolitical situations around the world. Corn futures to start the morning are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 3-4 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around 10 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down 20-30 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are up $1.30-1.50/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 170 points, and the US$ index is up around 10 points; the S&P500 is down 30 points and the NASDAQ is down 100 points.
Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress update from the USDA showed corn conditions in the week improved 1% in the G/EX category to 72%. At the state level, biggest improvements through the Midwest were seen in NE (+4%), ND (+3%), and IL (+2%), while the biggest falls on the week were seen in WI (-3%), MN (-2%) and IN (-2%). Corn emergence was up 7% on the week to 94%.
- Soybean conditions in the week fell 2% in the G/EX category to 66%; at the state level, both LA and MI were down 9% on the week, while WI was down 7%, KS was down 5%, and AR and MS were both down 4%. IL and TN both saw 4% improvements, and SD was up 3%. Soybean emergence was up 9% on the week to 84%.
- For wheat data, the report showed winter wheat conditions declining 2% on the week to 52% G/EX, while harvest progress advanced 6% to 10% complete. Spring wheat conditions inversely improved 4% in the G/EX category to 57%, while 89% of the crop has now emerged. To view the full weekly report from the USDA, please click here.
- Yesterday morning's NOPA soybean crush report showed US bean crush in the month of May at 192.8 mil bu, which was slightly below most trade estimates but still a new record for the month; the figure was up 1.4% from April, and up 5% from May of last year. The report also showed soybean oil stocks as of May 31st at 1.373 bil lbs, which was down more than 10% from April and down more than 20% from May of last year.
- CONAB's weekly crop progress report, released late yesterday, showed safrinha corn harvest in Brazil at at just 3.9% complete as of Saturday, which is slower than even most private estimates and continues to be well below the five-year average of 8.4% complete. Last year, harvest had reached 13.1% already as of the same date.
- US President Donald Trump left this week's G7 meeting in Canada a day early according to sources, with most assuming it was to deal with the ongoing Israel-Iran situation; Trump denied this claim, saying his reason was "much bigger", but did add that he could possibly send high ranking US officials to meet with Iran even though he was "not too much in the mood to negotiate."
- Other G7 members expressed support for Israel in a statement, saying Iran was a source of instability in the Middle East. Furthermore, Trump urged Iranian civilians to evacuate Tehran, the nation's capitol, citing what he said was a government rejection of a deal to halt the development of nuclear weapons. The comments seemed to contradict previous rhetoric that a broader full-scale war between the two countries could be avoided.
- On the interest rate front, Japan expectedly left their key lending rate unchanged overnight last night, while the US Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting gets started today. Despite ongoing pressure from Trump to Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, it continues to seem unlikely that such an outcome is seen tomorrow afternoon, with traders continuing to price in a nearly 100% chance that lending benchmarks are left unchanged again for another month.
- Weather forecasts this morning are drier through the midsection of the Corn Belt over the rest of this week, but are otherwise unchanged this morning in their broader outlook. Models continue to show the western US high pressure ridge migrating east by the end of the week, which will bring warmer temperatures and drier weather to the southern Midwest, while areas in the north will see elevated risk of thunderstorm activity due to ridge-riding thunderstorms coming across the top of the high pressure area.
- The EU model this morning through the end of the day on Friday shows rainfall totals of 1-3" in a band from KS/NE through IA and then into WI and MI; further south, the TN/KY area is expected to see 1-1.5", while the rest of the mid-south and southeast expects to see rainfall totals of a half inch to an inch.
- Week two forecasts are also similar to yesterday's runs, with the upper Midwest and most of the broader northern US expected to see above average precip chances into the first part of July. The far southeast into FL sees a drier bias, but the rest of the area looks to stay wet according to the models this morning.