Good morning. Happy Friday the 13th. CBOT markets are quietly mixed this morning to start Friday, with the exception being bean oil, which is sharply higher on what is likely a combination of optimism surrounding an RVO announcement from the US EPA at some point today and also spill over buying from the crude oil market which is up more than 8% at this writing. Attacks by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities and military leadership has caused a clear return to 'risk on' this morning, with gold futures also sharply higher and back near the record highs made earlier this spring, the dollar index sharply higher, and the equity markets in the red. Increasing Middle East tensions and US policy announcements will presumably dominate headlines today to wrap up the week, but the overall price determiner in the corn and bean markets continues to be weather, as concerns of high pressure ridging during corn pollination are growing. The corn market this morning is trading 1-2 cents lower, the soybean market is trading 1-2 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 4-5 cents higher. Products are again mixed on probable spread activity, with soybean meal down around $2/ton, and soybean oil up 60-70 points. Outside markets, like we mentioned, are sharply mixed; spot crude oil futures are up $5.40/bbl and nearly $4 off their highs, the Dow Jones index is down 430 points and roughly 300 points off it's lows, and the US$ index is up 65 points and near the overnight high. The S&P500 is down 60 points and the NASDAQ is down 260 points. Gold futures are up $30-40/oz but are also well off their highs after a gap-open start last night.

Today's Reports: CFTC Commitment of Traders

• Yesterday's monthly supply and demand updates both from the USDA and also CONAB failed to offer much of any excitement to either the corn or soybean markets, as numbers largely as expected and similar to last month. To view our USDA report recap, please click here; and to view our CONAB production maps, please click here.

• Despite talks of recent flooding rains possibly lowering Argentina's final soybean crop, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in their most recent weekly crop report, raised their estimate of the soy crop in the country by 0.3 MMT's to 50.3 MMT's. Harvest progress was seen at 93.2%, which remains slightly behind average. The report also showed corn harvest advancing just 2.9% over the past week to 46.7% complete, while production was held steady at 49.0 MMT's.

• Crude oil futures are sharply higher this morning on news reports that Israel attacked more than 100 Iranian targets overnight last night that included nuclear facilities and missile production centers in what it said would be a prolonged operation. In response, Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles back into Israeli territory, but sources say most of these were intercepted. The White House said they had no part in the operation, but President Trump did mention that Iran brought the attacks on themselves by not accepting a deal, and that subsequent, "more brutal", attacks were already planned.

• It is unclear this morning exactly what affects the strikes had on Iran's nuclear capabilities, but local sources reported seeing explosions at Iran's main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. Sources on the Iranian side reported that 'several' top commanders and also six nuclear scientists had been killed in the attacks, including the top commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Hossein Salami and also the Iranian military's chief of staff.

• The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) on Monday will release updated soybean crush and soybean oil stocks figures for the month of May. Analysts see the monthly report from the group showing May crush at 193.5 mil bu, which if accurate, would be a new record for the month and also up more than 5% from the figure seen in May of 2024. Bean oil stocks as of the end of the month are estimated at 1.451 bil lbs, which would be down 5% from April and down more than 15% from May of last year.

• We touched on this briefly yesterday afternoon, but according to two sources with knowledge of the matter, the US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) is set to release new biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027 at some point during the day on Friday. The sources say the mandate is likely to be less than what industry groups had sought in recent months, but should the announcement occur, it will at least put to rest months of ongoing debate and speculation that have caused refiners to scale back operations in some cases.

• As a reminder though, the RVO issue, which will hopefully be resolved today, and the SRE (small refinery exemption) issue, are two entirely separate discussions; an announcement today means nothing for the latter, which means there will still be question marks going forward as more than 160 exemptions from the Biden admin remain pending. Generally speaking, the exemptions give smaller refiners a pass on the blending mandate, effectively lowering the required level.

• Barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending June 7th were seen at 726k tons, which was down 16% from the week prior. Corn shipments at 583k tons were down 14% on the week, while soybean shipments at 106k tons were down 39% on the week. STL barge freight rates in the week were down 36 cents from the week prior to $12.13/short ton.

• Japan's chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa on Friday commented that his country would not accept a partial trade agreement with the US, saying "We aim to negotiate towards a comprehensive package deal that satisfies both Japan and the United States." The two sides are set to have their 6th round of negotiations in coming days before President Trump and PM Shigeru Ishiba are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada next week.

• Rains began falling across the northern and southern parts of the Midwest on Thursday, with models seeing these storms slowly making their way east through the day today. The EU model through early Monday morning sees chances for an additional 2-3" of rainfall in parts of the Dakota's/MN/WI, while most of the southeastern corner of the US has chances for a lesser 0.5-1.5", with some locally heavier amounts possible. Notable is that models overnight moved rains further north into IL/IN where dryness was forecast most of the week.

• Then as we get into next week, models are generally showing more of the same, as western US ridging allows upper air flow to continue coming over the top and provide the western and central parts of the Corn Belt with chances at showers/thunderstorms. Though confidence in the extended forecast is still not high, the EU model this morning is showing 2-4" of rainfall possible for most all of the eastern US between now and next Saturday (pictured below). Beyond here though, week two forecasts are generally drier this morning across the Midwest, especially in the southern part.

• The million dollar forecast question today as it pertains to US ag is does this ridge work its way east by the end of the month like both models are calling for, bringing hot/dry conditions to the Corn Belt during the critical pollination period in July. This will have the trade's attention over the next few weeks.

• Have a great weekend!