Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.38 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.40 1/2, up 3/4 cents
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 12 1/4, up 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 5th showed corn sales in the week at the lower end of trade expectations in the old crop at 791k MT's, while new crop sales were a negative 30k MT's on cancelations from unknown; Japan took 376,200 MT's in the week, while Mexico booked 164,400 MT's and Colombia booked 142,500 MT's. Unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 164,600 MT's.

• CONAB released updated monthly production estimates this morning; the numbers showed safrinha production up more than 1 MMT from last month at 101.01 MMTs, while total corn production was also up notably to 128.25 MMTs. USDA pegged total production today at 130.0 MMTs.

• USDA expectedly did not make a lot of changes to either the old or new crop corn balance sheets in their monthly update this morning. The report showed old crop exports up 50 mil bu from last month to 2.650 bil bu which subsequently lowered both old and new crop carryout, but this was the only change on the corn balance sheet.

• At the world level, ending stocks were down just slightly from last month at 275.24 MMT's, while 2024/25 imports for both Argentina and China were lowered by 1 MMT a piece. Also an otherwise quiet report on the world side.

Summary:

USDA raised old crop corn exports by 50 mil bu in their update this morning, but this was generally less than the trade had expected and is still viewed by some as being too low. The acreage debate will again come into focus as we approach the end of June, with the quarterly stocks and acreage report at the end of the month now the next major new crop supply update. Aside from this, price direction will be all about weather and fund positioning, much the same as it has been for the past several weeks.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.42 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.27 1/4, down 2 cents
• July Soybean Meal (MN): $294.50, up 30 cents/ton
• July Soybean Oil (LN): 47.61, down 0.41 cents/lb
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): 1 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Soybean sales in this morning's weekly report were disappointing at just 61k MT's in the old crop and 58k MT's in the new crop; unknown destinations assigned out/cancelled/rolled 260,700 MT's in the old crop, while Indonesia took 69,400 MT's and Egypt took 58,500 MT's.

• CONAB also updated soybean production estimates this morning in their monthly report, and now see total production for 2024/25 at 169.61 MMT's, which is up from the 168.34 seen last month. USDA pegged production today at 169.0 MMT's.

• Also not a lot notable from WASDE on the soybean side, as there were no balance sheet adjustments of any kind for either the old crop or the new crop. At the world level, ending stocks were raised slightly to 125.3 MMT's; there were no production adjustments made in Argentina or Brazil, and there was also no adjustment made to China's imports.

• Newswires today are reporting that the EPA is expected to release proposed biofuel blending requirements for oil refiners for the next two years on Friday, though the rumored level is supposedly less than the 5.25 billion gallons the industry had hoped for. It is unclear this afternoon as to the timing of the release tomorrow, but we would expect if it's during market hours to lead to increased volatility in the bean oil market.

Summary:

Secondary to the WASDE and CONAB reports this morning was RVO news out of the White House/EPA that quietly lingered in the background all day. The initial news, taken as positive as we'd finally be getting a number, rallied bean oil futures at first, but then as word got out that the number would be less than desired, prices turned back around and traded to fairly sizeable losses by the end of the day. Headline risk will be elevated to wrap up the week, as its also unknown at this point whether or not to expect additional headlines regarding the China situation.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.26 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.63 1/2, down 7 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -15 1/4, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Like corn and beans, this morning's WASDE report offered little of note for the wheat market. Old crop ending stocks were unchanged from May at 841 mil bu, while new crop stocks were down 25 mil bu on a 25 mil bu increase in exports. The avg farm price was also raised 10 cents to $5.40/bu.

• On the production side, there were very minor class-specific adjustments made, but the all wheat production figure was unchanged from last month at 1.921 bil bu.

• World wheat stocks were down from last month at 262.76 MMT's mostly on an upward adjustment of 1.5 MMT's in total Russian domestic use. Chinese imports in the 2024/25 crop year were also up 0.7 MMT's from last month to 4.0 MMT's.

Summary:

Wheat futures dropped back to the lower end of the June trading range today, as a lack of bullish input from the USDA and the early onset of US harvest led values to decline throughout the session. Further improvements in weather forecasts across Canada and China have also pressured values this week, with the market just simply not having a lot of anything positive to grasp hold of.

In Other News

• More mixed trade in the livestock markets on Thursday:
• August live cattle: $216.95, down $1.07
• August feeder cattle: $311.25, up 17 cents
• July lean hogs: $108.90, up 5 cents

• Outside markets:
• Crude oil futures: down 10-20 cents/bbl.
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 60 points, the S&P500 index is up 20 points, and the NASDAQ is up 400 points
• US $ Index: down 70 points

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• The European model has brought rains slightly further north and east through this weekend, but was otherwise unchanged through the day on Thursday and continues to offer a pair of storm systems to the Midwest over the next 5 days.

• Pockets of cooler air will continue to linger into next week, but forecasts continue to call for increasing temps across most of the country into the end of the month. Amid a cooler start to the season, the warm/wet forecast will be nearly ideal for the Midwest, and should bring about further increases in crop ratings.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two precip maps are continuing to fluctuate in terms of the specifics, but overall show the same thing today as they have all week in seeing wetter than normal conditions east of the Mississippi into the end of the month.

• However, pressure maps into the end of next week are showing increased chances that the western US ridge currently in place works its way east, which raises the chances for warm/dry conditions to emerge as precip will be limited to ridge-riding thunderstorms that are hard to predict.