AM Comments June 12 2025

Posted on Jun 12 at 07:01

Good morning. And welcome to USDA report day. Ag markets are quietly mixed this morning ahead of the the latest supply and demand update from the USDA that will be released at 11am central time. The June report typically doesn't offer a lot of surprises due to the fact that the quarterly stocks and acreage report at the end of the month is just a couple weeks away, but it's still nearly impossible to outguess these things, which it makes it difficult to predict exactly what we might see later this morning. As we say on most report days, have a plan in place for a sharp market move in either direction, and then prepare to be disappointed when the numbers don't justify it. Corn futures to start the day are trading around a penny higher, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is also up around a penny. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up $2-3/ton, and soybean oil is down 10-15 points. Outside markets are mostly lower, crude oil futures are down around $1.20/bbl this morning, the Dow Jones index is down 300 points, and the US$ index is down 70 points; the S&P500 is down 30 points and the NASDAQ is own 140 points.

 

Today's Reports: Conab Monthly Supply & Demand; Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; Monthly PPI; USDA June WASDE

 

  • This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 5th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 700k-1.2 mil mt's, old crop soybean sales in a range of 100k-500k mt's, and old crop wheat sales in a range of (100k)-500k mt's. On the new crop, corn and soybean sales are both seen between 0-200k mt's, and new crop wheat sales are seen between 400k-600k.

 

  • Ahead of this morning's supply and demand update from the USDA, traders are looking for similar ending stocks numbers to last month for both crop years; old crop corn stocks are seen down about 25 mil bu from May, while old crop bean stocks are seen nearly unchanged. New crop corn stocks are expected to also be slightly lower on the month at 1.792 bil bu, while new crop bean stocks are seen at 298 mil bu. World ending stocks are seen within one mil mt's of last month's figures for both crops. 

 

  • The only other figures that are expected to see notable adjustments are production figures out of South America; traders see numbers for Argentina similar to last month, and also see Brazil's soybean estimate similar to last month. However, the big question mark will be Brazil corn production, which traders see coming in roughly two mil mt's higher than last month at 131.7 mmt's. 

 

  • Along with USDA data this morning, the trade will also see updated production numbers out of Brazil via Conab's monthly report; Bloomberg analysts see the report showing harvested area of both corn and soybeans basically unchanged from last month, while the avg guess on soybean production is 169.8 MMT's and the avg guess on corn production is 129.3 MMT's. Yields are also expected to be slightly higher for both crops.

 

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange on Wednesday marginally trimmed its Argentine wheat production estimate for the 2025/26 season to 20.7 MMT's from 21.0 MMT's previously, citing a smaller area than previously due to flooding caused by recent heavy rains.

 

  • According to a post on Ukraine's Ag Ministry website, grain exports in the current marketing year have reached 39.3 MMT's, which is down nearly 20% from the same period last year. Exports for June alone have totaled just 884k tons, which is down nearly 40% from last year. The cumulative figure, includes 15.2 MMT's of wheat, 2.3 MMT's of barely, and 21.2 MMT's of corn.

 

  • According to data from an industry group on Thursday, India's palm oil imports in the month of May jumped to a new six-month high of 592.9k MT's, as prices continue to be cheaper than those of rival soybean oil. Analysts see this trend continuing at least through June, as imports for the current month are also expected to be up significantly from the current monthly average through the first half of 2025; India buys the bulk of its palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia.

 

  • President Trump on Wednesday told reporters that his administration intended to send letters to negotiating partners in the next "week or two" setting unilateral tariff rates; said Trump, "At a certain point, we're just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it." Furthermore, when asked if Trump would consider extending his July 9th deadline for deals to be made, he said that he would but did not think it would be a necessity.

 

  • It is unclear this morning whether these letters will actually go out, as Trump several times in the past month or so has touted a 'two week' deadline for negotiations to progress, only for these deadlines to come and go without much of anything changing. Sources familiar say the Trump trade team is working to secure deals with India, Japan, and South Korea, as well as the 27-country European Union.

 

  • Lastly as it pertains to the trade situation and China, there was finally some sort of mention of the purchase commitments in the Phase One trade deal, as Treasury Secretary Bessent told Congress on Wednesday that China had a commitment under Phase One that they have fallen behind on and that he'd press China to possibly "catch up" on those commitments.

 

  • Once again not a lot new to report on the weather front this morning, as forecasts through the end of the week and weekend continue to see heavier rains in the south/southeast, while ridge riding thunderstorms provide rainfall to the northern Corn Belt. As we've talked about all week, notable is the dry pocket in the central Corn Belt, as IA/N IL/S WI are expected to receive just trace amounts of rainfall over the next week.

 

  • The EU's week-two forecast trended drier overnight in the east, but the GFS output is still showing above average moisture conditions in this part of the country through the end of the month, leaving us with little confidence in the forecast beyond next week. No updates to the temperature forecast, with warming temps still expected to be the theme in the eastern US through the weekend and next week.

 

  • Good luck with today's reports!