Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.37, down 1 3/4 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.39 3/4, down 1/4 cent
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 11 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA showed a new all-time daily production record in the week ending June 6th of 1.120 mil bbls/day, which topped the previous record of 1.119 mil bbls/day set last November; the figure was up 1.4% from last week and up 4.5% from the same week last year.

• EIA also showed US ethanol stocks in the week at 23.734 mil bbls, which was down 3% from the week prior and a new low for the 2025 calendar year.

• Lastly on the ethanol report, corn usage in the week was also estimated at a new high of 110.7 mil bu, which brings cumulative marketing year use to 4.227 bil bu compared to 4.109 bil bu through the same week last year.

• Traders see Thursday's June WASDE report showing old crop ending stocks at 1.392 bil bu vs 1.415 bil in May, while new crop ending stocks are seen at 1.792 bil bu vs 1.800 bil in May. At the world level, stocks are seen slightly higher from last month at 278.8 MMT's on a possible upward adjustment of nearly 2 MMT's in Brazil.

Summary:

Quiet day in the corn market on Wednesday, as new crop futures traded just a 5-cent range on a continued good weather forecast and not a lot new on the demand front. Brazil corn into Spain through the summer continues to be well cheaper than that of the US, which should further limit exports once the harvest picks up speed over the next few weeks. Tomorrow's reports from both the USDA and Conab will offer the next headlines to the space, with the big corn-specific questions being Brazil's crop size and whether are any notable adjustments to old crop demand.

Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.50 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.29 1/4, down 2 cents
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): 5, down 3 1/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Not a lot specifically new in the soy complex on Wednesday, as there is seemingly some measure of disappoint on the lack of explicit ag purchases in the rumored agreement between the US and China. The 10% tariff to remain in place applies to US soybeans and other ag products, which will significantly impact price competitiveness this fall.

• Traders see ending stocks in Thursday's June WASDE report at 351 mil bu in the old crop vs 350 mil last month, and see ending stocks at 298 mil bu in the new crop vs 295 mil last month. World stocks are seen increasing just marginally to 124.54 MMT's from 124.33 MMT's last month.

Summary:

Talk surrounding China continued to dominate the soybean market again on Wednesday, as traders were largely disappointed that a rumored framework agreement did not include any mention of fulfillment of the Phase One trade deal or any new purchases of US ag products, namely soybeans. Similar to corn, there aren't a lot of surprises expected out of either Conab or the USDA tomorrow, but the reports will at the very least likely take some of the headline attention off the trade situation for a bit.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.34 1/4, down 1/4 cent
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.70 1/2, up 1/4 cent
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -14 3/4, down 1/2 cent

? Market Headlines:

• For tomorrow's June WASDE report, traders see total US wheat production coming in at 1.924 bil bu's, which would be up just slightly from the May figure.

• Not a lot of change is expected from an ending stocks standpoint, as old crop ending stocks are seen coming in at 842 mil bu and new crop ending stocks are seen coming in at 924 mil bu, which would both be up just 1 mil bu from previous estimates.

Summary:

Also a relatively quiet day in the wheat market, as traders positioned for a bearish report tomorrow on the idea that production estimates for the winter crop would likely be adjusted higher for the 11 straight year in the June report, and also on improving weather forecasts across the growing regions of both Canada and Russia. Harvest has just started to get rolling in the US southwest, with their not enough data available currently to gather any sort of insight.

Corn

• Old crop corn chart has continued to trend mostly lower over the past week, with yesterday's low at 4.29 and 1/4 marking short term support for the rest of the week. The contract low at 4.21 and 3/4 is longer term support below here.

• Resistance this week will be seen at 62% retracement of the recent down move at 4.51 and 1/4, and then above here at the 200-day moving average (4.62 1/2) and then the late May high at 4.64 and 3/4.

• New crop corn chart has been choppy, with support coming in at what looks like a triple bottom in the 4.34 area, while resistance has been in the 4.50 area, which marks the 50 and 200-day moving averages and also two of the last three reaction highs.

Soybeans

• Aside from a day or two here and there, old crop soybeans have remained largely rangebound since the beginning of April, with support generally being in the 10.30 area and resistance generally being in the 10.70 area.

• All the major moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200) are within six cents of each other between 10.47 1/2 and 10.53 1/2, which has been a bit of a gravitational area over the past week.

• The new crop November chart has also been sideways/rangebound over the past couple months, with support being seen in the 10.20 area and resistance being seen in the 10.40 area, which generally marks the outer bounds of the recent trading range; outside of higher, the recent low has been 10.15 1/4 and the recent high has been 10.65 1/2.

In Other News

• Livestock markets again closed mixed on Wednesday, with cattle markets higher and the hog market finishing the day in the red.
• August live cattle: $218.02, down $0.17 cents
• August feeder cattle: $311.07, down $2.07
• July lean hogs: $108.85, up $0.65 cents

• Outside markets were mostly mixed/lower on Wednesday, led by the $ index, as monthly inflation data this morning showed a slightly smaller increase than was expected from April of just 0.1%; this brought annual inflation to 2.4%, which was up from last month's 2.3% but also still better than expected.
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is down 70 points, the S&P500 index is down 30 points, and the NASDAQ is down 110 points
• US $ Index: down 45 points

• Petroleum stocks data out of the EIA report showed crude oil stocks in the week ending June 6th down 3.644 mil bbls at 432.415 mil bbls, gasoline stocks in the week up 1.504 mil bbls at 229.804 mil, and distillate stocks in the week up 1.246 mil bbls at 108.884 mil. Implied gasoline demand was seen at 9.170 mil bbls/day, compared to 8.263 mil last week and 9.040 mil in the same week last year.
• Crude oil futures: up $2.60-2.80/bbl

• According to a series of posts made on Truth Social by President Trump, the US and China have reached agreement on a trade deal that is pending approval from both he and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As part of the deal, US tariffs on goods from China would remain at 55%, while Chinese tariffs on US goods would remain at 10%. Trump also mentioned Chinese exports of magnets and rare-Earth metals would resume, and that the US would allow Chinese students to use it's colleges and universities.
• Notably absent in the posts though were any mention of specific purchases of US ag products. The two sides have agreed to further discussions, but there are no set plans for additional meetings as of this writing today.

Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Not a lot new this afternoon on the short term weather forecast for the rest of the week, as there continues to be decent model agreement on two separate storm systems in the north and the south providing rainfall to these areas, while the central Midwest stays short-changed through the end of the week (precip map above).

• Temperatures look to continue warming across the Midwest and eastern US through the end of this week and into the weekend, though the west appears to stay noticeably warmer than the east.

• 10-day precip forecasts for both China and Canada are noticeably wetter in the past couple days than those prior, and are also trending cooler, which should be crop-positive in these areas.

? Extended Forecast:

• Week two forecasts have trended towards spottier precip anomalies in the eastern US overnight, though they still generally show above average moisture conditions into the back third of the month.

• Also little new of note in the extended temperature forecast, as models remain in good agreement on increasing warmth into the end of the month following another several days of cooler weather in the eastern US to end this week.