? Corn Market Update

? Prices:

• July Corn (CN): $4.33 1/2, down 9 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.38, down 11 1/4 cents
• July/September Spread (CN/CU): 11 1/4, up 2 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Export inspections in the week ending June 5th totaled 1.657 MMT's, which was above trade expectations and up less than 1% from last week. Cumulative marketing year inspections have reached 50.302 MMT's.

• Fund traders have continued selling over the past week, with CFTC data from Friday showing them now net-short more than 154,000 contracts.

• Private Brazilian ag consultancy AgRural said earlier today that the country's safrinha corn harvest in it's center-south region had reached just 1.9% complete as of late last week, which is the slowest pace since 2021.

• According to a poll of Reuters analysts, condition ratings in this afternoon's progress report are expected to improve 1% in the G/EX category to 70%, while planting progress is expected to reach 97% complete.

Summary:

The continued presence of moisture in the extended range forecast further pressured the corn market on Monday, as funds likely continued adding to their net-short position. Also adding to the bearishness was a drier outlook for Brazil, which will allow harvest to get rolling and will also start to wind down the US export program for the season. Otherwise aside from weather, the trade for Tuesday will likely be focused on this afternoon's crop progress breakdown and if there are any states still with a significant amount of corn acres to seed.

? Soybean Market Update

? Prices:

• July Soybeans (SN): $10.56, down 1 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.30 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents
• July/August Spread (SN/SQ): 8 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly export inspections for soybeans this morning in the week ending June 5th totaled 547k MT's, which was also above trade expectations and up nearly 82% from last week. Cumulative inspections in the marketing year have now reached 48.188 MMT's.

• There was little announced progress in the London trade talks today between delegations from the US and China, with newswires largely moot on the matter as of this writing this afternoon.

• Chinese customs data for the month of May showed the country's soybean imports jumping to a new record of 13.92 MMT's in the month, which was more than double the April figure and also up more than 36% from May of last year. Cumulative imports in the 2025 calendar year have reached 37.11 MMT's, down 0.7% from last year.

• Reuters analysts see this afternoon's progress report showing G/E conditions also improving 1% on the week to 68%, while planting progress is seen advancing to 91% complete.

Summary:

A lack of any sort of noted progress during in-person talks between the US and China in London was seen as the main culprit for the mostly lower price action in the soybean market on Monday, with the friendly inspection number unable to entice much in the way of buying. Product markets also had a quiet start to the week on the fact that there remains little new regarding blending mandates, SRE's, or any of the other policy-related items that have been talked about recently.

? Prices:

• July Chicago Wheat (WN): $5.42, down 12 3/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.79 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents
• July/September Spread WN/WU: -15, down 1 cent

? Market Headlines:

• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 291k MT's, which was down 47% from the week prior. Cumulative inspections in the marketing year that began June 1 are seen at 168k MT's.

• China's 100% import tariff on Canadian canola has spurred a massive shift in planted area to more wheat, as growers turn to a crop that is less vulnerable to tariffs and other disruptions from the US or China.

• Private Black Sea Consultancy SovEcon on Monday raised their Russain wheat production estimate in the current season by 1.8 MMT's to 82.8 MMT's, citing good weather in the country's southern growing regions.

Summary:

Wheat was generally considered the downside leader in the ag space Monday, as improving global weather, namely in the Black Sea, Canada and China, caused funds to continue to selling across all three markets. Harvest in the US is still a few weeks away for the most part, but this also looks to potentially pressure the market in the short term.

? In Other News

• Livestock markets started the week on a higher note, as all three of the live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hog markets extended last week's rallies to new contract highs during today's session.

• Outside markets had a mostly quiet start to the week, with focus here also being on progress in talks between the world's two largest economies ahead of updated inflation data due out both tomorrow morning and Thursday morning.

?? Weather Outlook

? Short-term Forecast:

• Rains will continue to favor the southern US and southeast this week, with the EU model forecast calling for 2-5" of rainfall in east-central TX and a lesser 1-3" of rainfall further east along the Gulf Coast.

• Parts of the northern Corn Belt in NE/SD/IA/MN/WI will also see additional rains this week, with the same EU forecast showing 1-3" of precip potential here.

• Temperatures look to continue having a cooler lean in the east this week, though there will be days of above average warmth mixed in mid-week. Areas west of the Rockies look to remain on the warm side.

? Extended Forecast:

• Precip maps for the week two period continue to show above average moisture biases in the eastern and northern parts of the US, though the EU outlook has a bigger wet area than the GFS does.

• There is good model agreement on a gradual warm up across the eastern US into the back half of June, though models see the warmest of the heat continuing to stay in the west/southwest.

• New week 3-4 outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center released on Friday (pictured above) show almost all of the Corn Belt having equal chances of seeing above or below average precip, while temperatures in the area look to be above to well above average.