AM Comments June 10 2025
Good morning. Monday's trade action has largely spilled into Tuesday for the most part, as the grains have continued their slide overnight and the soy complex is trading mixed around unchanged. Ongoing favorable Midwest weather forecasts have led to lower trending markets in recent weeks, and improving crop conditions in yesterday afternoon's update will only likely further add to this ahead of updated supply and demand balance sheets later this week. The bottom line remains that the bulls need some sort of spark either from the weather or via a new trade deal that specifies US ag purchases in order to sustain any sort of rally in the short term. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading either side of unchanged, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 7-8 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up around 25 points. Outside markets are mixed/quietly higher, crude oil futures are up around 40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is up 5 points; the S&P500 is near unchanged and the NASDAQ is up 30 points.
Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks
- Monday afternoon's weekly crop progress report showed corn conditions as of Sunday, June 8th, at 71% G/EX, which was up 2% from last week. At the state level, improvements were fairly widespread geographically, with OH improving 12% in the east, while ND improved 10% and SD improved 8% in the west. For the I-states, IA was up 1% on the week, IL was up 5%, and IN was down 1%.
- Soybean conditions improved 1% on the week to 68% G/EX; at the state level, the Dakota's also accounted for the bulk of the improvement here, with ND improving 8% on the week and SD improving 9%. Soybean in conditions in the I-states were steady to lower, with IN declining 2% on the week, IA declining 1% and IL coming in unchanged from last week.
- On the progress side, planting progress has nearly wrapped up for both crops, with the report showing corn planting progress at 97% and soybean planting progress at 90%. The report also showed 87% of the corn crop out of the ground, along with 75% of the soybean crop.
- Wheat data in the report showed winter wheat harvest at 4% complete, up just 1% from last week, while conditions in the G/EX category improved 2% from last week to 54%. Spring wheat conditions also saw improvement on the week, gaining 3% in the G/EX category to 53%. To view the full report from the USDA please click here.
- Ahead of Thursday's June supply and demand update from the USDA, traders are looking for similar ending stocks numbers to last month for both crop years; old crop corn stocks are seen up about 25 mil bu from May, while old crop bean stocks are seen up about 15 mil bu. New crop corn stocks are expected to also be slightly higher on the month at 1.802 bil bu, while new crop bean stocks are seen at 304 mil bu. World ending stocks are seen within one mil mt's of last month's figures for both crops.
- The only other figures that are expected to see notable adjustments are production figures out of South America; traders see numbers for Argentina similar to last month, and also see Brazil's soybean estimate similar to last month. However, the big question mark will be Brazil corn production, which traders see coming in roughly two mil mt's higher than last month at 131.8 mmt's.
- Staying in Brazil, private consultancy AgRural said on Monday that safrinha corn harvest in the country's center-south region had reached just 2% complete as of last week, which compares to 10% a year ago and is the slowest pace since 2021. The group said late plantings in the area and high humidity levels have been the main culprits for the slow harvest pace so far.
- There are still few details this morning on yesterday's London meeting between officials from the US and China that sources lasted more than seven hours; comments from the US side - President Trump, and Bessent/Lutnick - indicated that the talks were "good", but there is seemingly little other detail available as of this writing this morning. Trump told reporters yesterday afternoon that that talks would be ongoing today, and that "we'll see" when asked about lifting some export controls on chips and other products to possibly aide progress.
- Weather forecasts were little changed overnight, with both the EU and the GFS models still showing rains this week across the south-central US and Gulf Coast and then also to the north through parts of the north-central Corn Belt. More notable though is the areas that aren't expected to get rains, as there is a significant hole through N MO/S IA and then east into IL/IN/OH due to the presence of a high pressure ridge that keeps thunderstorm activity further to the north.
- Temperature maps were also little changed overnight, and continue to show a cooler eastern US bias in the 0-5 day period, before still being in agreement on a return to more summer-like warmth in the 5-10 day period and then beyond. The warmest air stays centered on the western US, with areas west of the Rockies staying some 10 degrees F above average.