Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Ag markets ended the session mostly higher. Commodities remain sensitive to geopolitics, tariff headlines, and weather. President Trump and Chinese President Xi confronted weeks of brewing trade tensions and a battle over critical minerals yesterday in a leader-to-leader phone call, leaving key issues to further talks. Since, President Trump has said three of his cabinet officials will meet with Chinese representatives in London on June 9^th to discuss a trade deal. Market participants will closely be monitoring the result of this meeting given the unresolved issues surrounding not only ag trade, but export controls and technology. The Russia/Ukraine war continues to escalate, highlighting the lack of progress towards a ceasefire, as recent drone attacks by Ukraine have reportedly destroyed over 30% of Russia's long-range bomber fleet.

CN ended the week at 4.42½, up 3 ¢. CZ firmed a penny to 4.49¼. SN closed at 10.57½, up 5½ ¢. SX finished at 10.37, 3 ¢ cents higher. WN firmed 9¼ ¢ to 5.54¾. Products closed mixed, July soybean meal ended at 295.7, down $1.40/ton, while July soybean oil closed at 47.50, up 85 points. The firmness in soy oil was attributed to rumors that the Office of Management and Budget is nearing a decision on the 2026 through 2028 renewable volume obligations and an announcement may be coming in the next few weeks.

Cattle markets ended the week, with June fats closing at 226.30, up $3.40, and August feeders closing at 310.15, up $1.00. June hogs closed at 226.30, up $3.40. Outside markets are firmer to end the week, with nearby crude oil futures up $1.50/bbl, matching a 7-week high. The Dow Jones index is up roughly 440 points, and the US$ index is moderately higher.  The S&P500 is up approximately 65 points, and the NASDAQ is roughly 265 points higher.  

This morning’s May nonfarm jobs report showed stronger than anticipated numbers at 139,000. Unemployment stayed at 4.2% for May from April, doing little to shift market behavior. Private payroll numbers increased just 37,000 in May vs. forecasts calling for an additional 114,000 jobs in the month. The April U.S. trade deficit fell 56% to $61.6 bln. after climbing to $138.3 bln. in March. This marked the largest month-over-month change in history. The trade gap was $6 bln. closer than forecasted. April imports dropped 16%, while exports rose 3%. The import shift was mostly attributed to the implementation of tariff policies in early April.

For the week: July corn is down 1½ ¢; December corn is 10¾ ¢ firmer. July soybeans are up 15½ ¢; November soybeans are 10¼ ¢ higher; July Chicago wheat is 20¾ ¢ firmer; July soybean meal is down $.60/ton; and July soybean oil is up $.61/lb.

Spreads ended the week steady to firmer. Corn spreads were ¼ ¢ to 2 ¢ higher. Soybean spreads were unchanged to up 1¾ ¢. CN/CU closed at 9¼, up 1¼ ¢. CN/CZ was 2¢ firmer at -6¾, after trading to its widest level (-10¼) since July 2024. SN/SQ closed at +6 ½, 1¼¢ firmer.

Demand for U.S. export corn has been slowing as global buyers hope for cheaper levels out of Argentina and Brazil, but thus far Brazilian corn export sales have been slow due to strong domestic premiums. Argentine corn basis levels, however, have reportedly eased this week. On the soybean buying front, the Chinese were quiet to start the week as they celebrated their Dragon Boat Festival but as the week progressed, they did purchase some South American bean cargoes. Reports indicate they picked up 7 to 8 cargos for July, 3 for July/August, 2 for August, and possibly 2 for April. On a positive note, Brazil bean premiums have been firming, making the U.S. competitive on soybeans into Europe for late summer and rumors have been circulating that there has been some U.S. export bean business done for August.  The Brazilian real has recently traded to an 8-month high, which is likely tempering Brazil’s sales pace.

The forecast is little changed, calling for heavy rains for the southern half of the Midwest the next few days. Conversely, the northern half of the Midwest is expected to trend drier over the same time period. Sun and rising temperatures are expected next week, which should benefit growing conditions and late planting progress. The extended forecast is currently warmer through the middle of June, with more normal rainfall. In other parts of the world, dry conditions are expected to continue in the Canadian prairies, Europe, and the Black Sea. In the S hemisphere, conditions are expected to be mostly dry for Argentina and west-central Brazil over the next week, which should be beneficial for harvest progress.

Have a great weekend!