AM Comments June 3 2025
Good morning. Ag markets have seen another night of choppy/back-and-forth trade at the CBOT to start Tuesday, with corn futures having made new lows for the move through the early morning hours and soybeans seeing a bit of dead cat bounce action following the selling seen to start the week yesterday. Updated crop progress data released after the markets closed on Monday offered little of note to traders, which means price action today is likely once again going to be in large part dependent on headlines surrounding China and the validity of yesterday afternoon's news report that President Trump and President Xi would be speaking by telephone at some point later this week. Confirmation of such a meeting would likely be taken by algorithms as a 'buy', while failure for a conversation to materialize will likely be sold and labeled as a regression in progress. Corn futures this morning are trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybean futures are trading 1-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is also trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 5-10 points. Outside markets are quietly mixed, crude oil futures are up 30-40 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 90 points, and the US$ index is up 40 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is down 5 points.
Today's Reports: Monthly JOLTs Jobs Data; API Energy Stocks
- Yesterday's crop progress report showed initial ratings for this year's soybean crop at 67% in the G/EX category, which compares to 72% in the first reading last year. Corn conditions came in at 69% in the G/EX category on the week, up 1% from last week. At the state level, IA notably improved 1% on its corn condition to 84% G/EX, while soybeans in the state were rated 81% G/EX. Illinois soybeans were rated at 59% G/EX, while IN came in at 69% and OH came in at 50%.
- For wheat, winter wheat harvest has kicked off across the US with the report showing 3% of the crop harvested, while conditions in the G/EX category improved 2% on the week to 52%. Spring wheat conditions improved 5% on the week to 50% G/EX. To view the full report from the USDA, please click here.
- Also out yesterday afternoon were the monthly Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings reports from the USDA. The Fats and Oils report showed US soybean crush in the month of April at 202 mil bu, which compared to the NOPA figure for the month of 190 mil bu; soybean oil stocks as of the end of the month totaled 1.976 bil lbs, compared to NOPA's 1.527 bil lbs. The Grain Crushing report showed corn used for ethanol in April at 426 mil bu, while total corn use in the month was up 1% from last year at 475 mil bu.
- Following higher corn production estimates from Safras y Mercado late last week, private groups AgRural and StoneX on Monday made similar adjustments, and both adjusted their 2024/25 Brazil corn production figure higher. AgRural sees the country's total corn crop at 128.5 mmt's, which is up from their previous estimate of 124.8 mmt's, while StoneX raised it's forecast from 132.4 mmt's to 134.0 mmt's. Both groups, as well as Safras, cited better-than-normal late season rains that helped yields as reason for the adjustments higher.
- Australia's ag ministry said on Monday in a quarterly crop report that the country's wheat production in the current season is expected to be down around 10% from last year at 30.6 mmt's due to a lack of soil moisture in some areas leading to a reduction in planted area. The figure, however, is still well above the country's recent ten-year average, which is seen at 27.6 mmt's. Planted area in the season is seen falling 3% to 12.6 million hectares.
- Vietnam is expected to sign trade deals this week with the US totaling more than $2 mil in agriculture, forestry and fishery products according to multiple sources. An announcement posted on a Vietnamese government website coincides with the arrival of a 50-person delegation from the country to IA this week, as five memorandums of understanding are expected to be signed between the Vietnamese feed industry and private American companies. Vietnam is expected to be the world's number three corn importer in 2025/26 according to the USDA.
- The White House announced late yesterday afternoon that President Trump has extended the current pause on some tariffs on Chinse goods until August 31st, in what some see as a gesture of good faith ahead of a rumored phone call between the leaders of the two countries later this week. Sources say the pause primarily effects items like solar manufacturing equipment, and reduces the effective tariff rate from 145% to around 30%.
- The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) in a quarterly update on Tuesday said the global economy was on track to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026 as Trump's trade war is seen taking a bigger toll on the US economy than was previously expected. In March, the group pegged 2025 growth at 3.1% and 2026 growth at 3.0%.
- Weather forecasts were little changed overnight, and continue to feature a fairly large line of storms working their way across the central US this week. The EU model sees this system providing 1-2" of rainfall today to an area from roughly western KS/NE north and east through northern MO and IA and then into MN/WI. Similar totals are then seen for areas further to the east for Wednesday, with the systems tail expected to continue providing rainfall to the southeast and East Coast through the end of the week and into the weekend.
- Week two precip maps overnight trended slightly drier in the mid-section of the Corn Belt, but still show wetter than average biases for areas to the north and south, and also further west through the central Plains. Only overnight change on the temp side was in the 10-15 day period, where models trended wetter across the northern US and into the northeast.