PM Comments June 2 2025
Good afternoon. Corn and soybean markets started the new week and month lower on Monday, as renewed tensions between the US and China mixed with ongoing favorable weather forecasts caused sellers to be active throughout the session. The wheat market, meanwhile, finished the day in the green on further short covering which was likely based on dry forecasts for Canada and Europe and another round of Russia/Ukraine headlines.
CN closed Monday at 4.38 and 1/4, down 5 and 3/4. CZ finished at 4.35 and 3/4, down 2 and 3/4 cents. Outside day lower for old crop corn. SN closed at 10.33 and 1/2, down 8 and 1/4. SX was down 9 and 3/4 at 10.17 and 3/4. WN closed at 5.39, up 5 cents. High for the day was 5.49 and 1/2. Products started the week lower, July soybean meal closed at 293.90, down $2.40/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 46.28, down 61 points. Livestock markets closed Monday higher, August live cattle closed at 211.00, up $1.65, August feeders closed at 301.75, up $2.92, and July hogs closed at 104.97, up 5 cents. Inside day for the cattle markets. Outside markets have been mixed to start the week, crude oil futures are up around $2/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 70 points, and the US$ index is down 60-70 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 150 points. Gold futures are up around $90/oz.
Spreads were mixed, corn spreads finished Monday up a quarter cent to down 4 and 1/4 cents and soybean spreads were up 2 cents to down 6 cents. CN/CU closed at 17 and 1/2, down 3 and 1/4 cents, and SN/SQ closed at 6 and 1/4, up a penny and 1/4. CU/CZ matched its contract low from Friday at -15 and 1/2, and SX/SF also matched its contract low made in April at -14 and 1/2.
Aside from this morning's regular weekly export inspections report, news during the day on Monday was largely limited to post-close data points, with the USDA's updated monthly soybean crush and corn grind data released this afternoon, and the weekly crop progress update that includes the first soybean condition ratings of the year still due out later this afternoon. Starting with the export inspections report, data for the week ending May 29th showed corn inspections in the week up 11% from the week prior at 1.576 mmt's; soybean inspections were up 34% on the week at 268k mt's, and wheat inspections were down 2% on the week at 553k mt's. As a reminder, the marketing year for wheat ends on June 1, which means this report will conclude the 2024/25 marketing year; total cumulative inspections of 21.826 mmt's were up 17% from last year. Also of note, US census export figures for the month of April will be released later this week on Thursday.
Data from the USDA's June Fats and Oils report, which contained numbers for the month of April, showed soybean crush in the month at 202 million bu, which was down from 207 mil bu in March of this year but still up significantly from the 178 mil bu figure seen in April of 2024; the figure also matched trade expectations. The report also showed stocks of crude and once refined soybean oil as of April 31st at 1.976 bil lbs, which compared to 2.080 bil lbs at the end of March and 2.311 bil lbs at the end of April 2024. These figures compare to NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) data released for the month that showed soybean crush at 190 mil bu and bean oil stocks at 1.527 bil lbs. Flipping over to corn, the monthly Grain Crushings report showed corn used for ethanol in the month of April at 426 mil bu, compared to 453 mil bu in March and 423 mil bu in April 2024. Total corn consumption for all purposes was up 1% from last year at 475 mil bu.
Otherwise, it was once again tariff and trade-related headlines that dominated the rest of the ag space chatter on Monday. Following weekend headlines that negotiations between US and Chinese officials had not gone well, a CNBC reporter said this afternoon, quoting a senior White House official, that President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were likely to speak by phone this week, though it "probably wouldn't be today." White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt then later also confirmed this to be true, but gave no further details on the situation. Then also this afternoon, the Trump administration made an announcement that it would like other countries negotiating trade deals with the US to provide their best offer on negotiations by Wednesday, nearly five weeks ahead of the 90-day deadline given at the beginning of April when a host of Trump's tariffs were paused to negotiate. The letter also makes mention of the current ongoing legal battle in the US court system, saying more or less that regardless of the outcome, the President would be pursuing multiple other legal avenues to continue his tariff program if necessary. It is unclear as of this writing exactly what the penalty would be for countries who do not submit an offer by Wednesday.
Weather forecasts for the Midwest continue to be largely non-threatening, as forecasts over the next week to 10 days see an ongoing mix of rain and sunshine for most areas. The heaviest totals will be focused in the south/southwestern parts which will be unwelcomed as they get further east, while areas to the north are expected to see a generally lesser 1-2". Week-two outlooks are also non-threatening, as they continue to show above average precip chances for most of the eastern US, especially in the south/southeast. Heat also continues to not be an issue, as both the 0-5 and 5-10 day outlooks have just slightly above average heat at most for fringe areas of the Corn Belt, while the I-states see temps that are close to average. Extended outlooks show above average warmth for nearly the whole of the country, but have done so for days now and our confidence in this solution is low.