AM Comments May 29 2025

Good morning. Selling in the corn market has continued into another session at least to start with on Thursday, as both old and new crop contracts have again made new lows for the week overnight on continued fund pressure and a further lack of bullish input. The soy complex started in the green this morning, but none of the three (beans, meal or oil) showed much vigor overnight after all gapped marginally higher on the open, and are now all trading lower this morning also. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 2-4 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading around a penny lower. Products are lower, soybean meal is down 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is down around 40 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 10-20 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 110 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is up 50 points and the NASDAQ is up 300 points.

Today's Reports: Weekly Jobless Claims; US Q1 GDP Estimate; EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks

 

  • This morning's weekly ethanol production report from the EIA, delayed a day this week due to the Monday holiday, is expected to show daily production in the week in a range of 1.021-1.070 mil bbls, while ethanol stocks for the week are seen in a range of 24.00-25.04 mil bbls.

 

  • A US trade court on Wednesday issued a ruling to block most of President Trump's tariffs based on findings that he had overstepped his executive authority. Both the EU and member-state Germany declined to comment on the development, saying the US legal proceedings were ongoing. The Trump administration said they would be appealing the ruling, but it is unclear at this point what the timeline for that is.

 

  • Both the Buenos Aires and Rosario grain exchanges said on Wednesday that coming cool/dry weather should allow for improvements in the delayed soybean harvest pace over the next couple weeks. Neither group mentioned production updates, but they both said that the potential for frosts in some areas should further help with drying following recent heavy rains.

 

  • The European Commission, in its latest seasonal outlook released on Wednesday, said they see total EU grain production in the 2025/26 season at 279.6 mmt's, which is down slightly from their previous estimate of 280.3 mmt's. Corn production accounted for most of the decline, with officials estimating output at 63.8 mmt's compared to 65.0 previously.

 

  • Brazil's ag ministry on Wednesday ruled out the second of two possible bird flu cases mentioned yesterday, this one being in the northern state of Tocantins. The other case in RGDS is still under investigation; Brazil began counting the 28-day period in which no outbreaks in commercial flocks can be reported to be declared virus-free on May 22nd, which means the findings from the previously mentioned investigation could reset this timer.

 

  • A White House official late Wednesday evening said that the off-boarding process for billionaire Elon Musk would "begin tonight", confirming that the Musk's time in the Trump administration is coming to a scheduled close. Musk, tasked with cutting government spending by way of the Dept of Government Efficiency (DOGE), had aimed to save $2 trillion, but records indicate the savings are closer to $175 billion.

 

  • Weather forecasts for the back half of the week and weekend remain little changed, and continue to offer drier conditions for a bulk of the Corn Belt, especially in the north, while the southeast and mid-south will see additional rains between now and Sunday. The models are wetter then Mon/Tues/Weds next week than they were yesterday, with rains of 1-2" expected to benefit parts of KS/NE and then north and east into SD/IA/MN. Notable is a dry pocket in northern IL, where dryness has already been a concern through May.

 

  • Extended forecasts into the second week of June are also little changed again this morning, and continue to offer wetter than average conditions for generally the eastern 2/3's of the US in the period, while temperatures are still expected to begin trending warmer starting this weekend. There are pockets of dryness, but generally speaking, the forecast remains relatively non-threatening into mid-June.