AM Comments May 28 2025
Good morning. Classic turn-around-Tuesday on a Wednesday at the CBOT this morning, with the grain markets bouncing from yesterday's losses and the soy complex correcting some of yesterday's gains. The corn market today should be supported by initial crop condition ratings yesterday afternoon that were a touch worse than expected, especially in the eastern Cron Belt, while the soy complex is likely again a headline market today, with ongoing chatter surrounding biofuel policy continuing to have an outsized influence in price discovery in both the soybean and soy oil markets. Otherwise, it's another day of trading weather and trade deal rumors, with most commodity markets having seen quiet overnight trading sessions Tuesday evening. Corn futures to start Wednesday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 2-3 cents higher. Products are quietly mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up around 20 points. Outside markets are quietly higher, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 10 points, and the US$ index is up 15 points; the S&P500 is up 5 points and the NASDAQ is up 60 points.
Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress update from the USDA showed the US corn crop rated 68% in the G/EX category in its first reading of the year, which compares to 75% in the initial estimate last year. At the state level, IN is rated 70% G/EX, while IL is rated 67% and IA is rated 83%. OH is the worst rated state in the Corn Belt, with its crop seen at just 41% in the G/EX category. USDA will release initial soybean condition ratings next week.
- The report also showed corn planting advancing 9% on the week to 87% complete, while soybean planting advanced 10% on the week to 76% complete. On emergence, 67% of the corn crop is now up compared to 55% last year, and 50% of the soybean crop is up compared to 37% last year.
- For wheat, winter wheat conditions came in at 50% in the G/EX category on the week, which was down 2% from last week; spring wheat conditions in their first reading of the season came in at 45% in the G/EX category, compared to an initial reading of 74% to start out last year. Spring wheat emergence was seen at 60% this week, up from 45% last week. To view the USDA's full crop progress report, please click here.
- Data from the European Commission shows EU soft wheat exports have reached 18.8 mmt's in the current marketing year that goes through June 30th, which compares to 28.4 mmt's in the same period last year. However, lineup data suggests the figure is likely closer to 22.5 mmt's, which would seem to be more reasonable. Data for Italy, France, Bulgaria, and Ireland is incomplete due to ongoing reporting issues.
- Staying in Europe, Germany's association of farm cooperatives on Wednesday said that the country's 2025 wheat crop could be up more than 13% from last year at 21.01 mmt's. The figure though was below the group's April estimate of 24.41 mmt's, with late winter frosts and drought in areas this spring being cited as the reasons for the cuts.
- In the latest update to the ongoing bird flu situation in Brazil, Ag Minister Carlos Favaro on Tuesday said that fresh cases had been identified in wild animals, but that it should not have any impact on commercial operations. Favaro added though that there was a new potential case being investigated on a commercial farm which was again located in RGDS, the same state the initial case was found one. Ministry data shows this case along with one other on a commercial operation as currently outstanding.
- Aside from the ongoing rhetoric surrounding tariffs and trade deals, financial markets in the US on Wednesday will turn at least a portion of their attention to this afternoon's release of the FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed's May policy meeting. Most economists don't expect a lot of differing rhetoric from previous meetings this tear where rates were held unchanged, but it will be interesting to see if there are any new opinions on the potential long-term effects of President Trump's tariffs.
- Other financial world happenings for Wednesday include the monthly earnings report for AI-behemoth Nvidia, which are expected towards the end of the day this afternoon. Analysts are projecting revenue in Q1 around $43.28 billion, however, export restrictions on chip sales to China could have had a bigger impact on this figure than is expected.
- Satellite data from Tuesday shows light showers dotted the western and central parts of the Corn Belt over the last 24 hours, with totals measurable but generally less than a tenth of an inch. The southeast saw better rains, where totals ranged from a half inch to 1.5" generally, with the heaviest amounts in AL/MS.
- For today, light showers are expected to continue dotting the central Midwest throughout the day and into tonight, while a more gathered storm system then looking to work through the southern/south-central Midwest tonight and then through the day on Thursday. Rainfall from this system is expected near an inch according to the overnight EU model run, and looks to fall from KS through southern MO and into TN/KY and then the Virginias. Temperatures the rest of this week look to remain on the cooler than average side for most of the Midwest as well.
- Not a lot of overnight change then on the week two forecasts, as models remained in fairly good agreement on both the precip and temperature outlook; starting with the precip side, most of the eastern half of the US expects to see above avg rainfall potential the second week of June, while the west is seen average to slightly below average. For temps, the east still looks to see a warm-up starting this weekend/next week, while the west then goes off cooler for a few days. Models are then in good agreement on warmer air for most of the country into mid-June as ridging settles back in.