AM Comments May 16 2025

Posted on May 16 at 07:24

Good morning. Happy Friday. CBOT markets are for the most part quietly mixed to start Friday morning trade, with the exception of soybean oil, which had another gap-lower open and is currently down another penny+; spot futures are 30 or 40 points off the lows currently, but the concern surrounding sharply lower domestic bean oil demand is still very present, and will likely keep this market under pressure for most of the remainder of the week. That said, it will be important for the soybean market itself to hold yesterday's lows, which are the low-water mark for the week and also just above the 200-day moving average that has been a gravitation point for the last month or so. Otherwise like we've mentioned several other times this week, bigger picture price direction in the short term continues to be a product of trade deals and weather, with a lot of unknowns still existing on both fronts. Corn futures this morning are trading either side of unchanged, soybean futures are trading 2-3 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is down 1-2 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil like we mentioned is down another 1.40 cents/lb. Outside markets are quiet/mixed, crude oil futures are near unchanged, the Dow Jones index is up 150 points, and the US$ index is down 5-10 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 90 points. Gold futures are down around $60/oz.

 

Today's Reports: CFTC Commitment of Traders

 

  • NOPA released new monthly soybean crush information yesterday for the month of April. The data showed soybean crush in the month at 190.226 mil bu, which was down 2% from March but still up 12% from April of last year; the figure was also a new record for the month. Data in the report also showed soybean oil stocks as of April 30th at 1.527 bil lbs, which was up 2% from March but down nearly 17% from April of last year; the figure was also notably well above all trade guesses.

 

  • Also out on Thursday were the results of the Wheat Quality Council's KS wheat crop tour, which showed the scouts' estimated yield figure for the state at 53 bu/acre; if accurate, this would be the highest since 2021. Data for the estimate was collected from 449 fields over three days, and led to a production estimate for the state of 338.5 million bu.

 

  • The weekly crop update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange shows Argentine farmers have continued to prioritize soybean harvest over corn, with the prior advancing 20% on the week to 64.9% complete. Corn harvest advanced just 2.3% on the week to 37.2% complete, but still remains well ahead of both last year and the five-year average. There were no production estimate updates made to either crop this week, with soy production still seen at 50.0 mmt's and corn production still seen at 49.0 mmt's.

 

  • Last bit of catch up news from Thursday, which we briefly touched on yesterday morning, was the monthly crop update from Brazil's Conab; the report showed soybean production slightly higher on the month at 168.342 mmt's, compared to 167.87 mmt's in April. Corn saw an even bigger adjustment higher, with the group pegging production at 126.879 mmt's compared to 124.743 last month. The soybean figure, while not final, is up 14% from last year, while the corn figure was up 10%. To view our updated Brazil production maps, please click here.

 

  • In Europe, Ukraine's farmers have planted just under 90% of their intended grain crop area as of Friday, which is in line with pace seen in recent years. Elsewhere, the French wheat crop this week saw a G/EX rating of 73%, which was down slightly from last week's estimate. French corn planting is also seen at 90% complete compared to 70% in the same week last year.

 

  • A government website shows the Trump administration's proposal for biofuel blending quotas, or RVO's, has ben submitted to the White House budget office for review; from here, bills typically take 2-4 weeks to be formally presented, but the news is at least some sort of sign that rumored mandate levels could become known in the next couple weeks which would be a win for the industry regardless of what level they are announced at.

 

  • The US FDA, in an announcement made on Thursday, said they would be "proactively" reviewing the safety of chemicals in foods, as opposed to what officials call a "somewhat reactionary" approach that has been used in the past. The announcement underscores Health Secretary RFK Jr's pledge to overhaul the US diet, and further details to the plan are expected later this month.

 

  • According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 10th totaled 739k tons, which was down just over 5% from the week prior. Corn shipments in the week at 526k tons were down 9%, and soybean shipments at 186k tons were up 7%. STL barge freight rates in the week were down $1.20 to $13.45/short ton.

 

  • Lower level negotiators from Ukraine and Russia will hold meetings in Istanbul, Turkey today according to sources familiar, in what look to be the first face-to-face peace talks between the two sides since the war began more than three years ago. There is no indication this morning President Trump will be present for the meetings, though he cryptically said yesterday that his destination was "unknown" once he left the UAE.

 

  • Rains in the Dakota's over the last 24 hours according to satellite data totaled 1-2" in the western part of the region, while the eastern part into MN and then across the northern Midwest into the Great Lakes saw a lesser 0.5-1" generally speaking. Satellite data also shows a fairly large area in the northern Corn Belt through parts of WI/MI/N IL that received a good bit of hail, while there was also a band of hail noted through N AR and into the OH River Valley.

 

  • For today, the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook shows further risk of severe thunderstorm activity in the south/southeastern Midwest, while nearly the whole of the US east of the Mississippi sees some level of thunderstorm risk throughout the day on Friday. This obviously means rainfall amounts/locations will be difficult to forecast, but the EU model this morning shows the possibility of 1-2" of rainfall give or take for an area from NE TX/SE OK east through the mid-Miss and into TN/KY.

 

  • Then as we get into next week, the main forecast feature remains the second low pressure system seen working through the central US, which is expected to provide rainfall of 1-3" for the central Corn Belt and parts of NE/IA/MO/IL/IN. We continue to reiterate that these rains are rather important for early season crop development, as the week two outlooks, and also extended range outlooks through summer, continue to show a shift back to warmer/drier conditions.

 

  • Have a good weekend! As a reminder, the soy complex will see expanded trading limits on Friday, with the soybean trading limit expanded to $1.15, while the bean oil limit will be 4.5 cents/lb and the meal limit will be $30/ton.