Good afternoon. Sharply lower trade in the soybean oil complex was the theme at the CBOT on Thursday, as prices here spent the bulk of today's session locked limit down, which pulled the soybean market to fairly big losses as well. Grain futures held up comparatively better, but corn futures also ended the day mostly lower as the spill-over selling from soy was too much to overcome.

CN closed Thursday at 4.48 and 1/2, up 3 cents. CZ closed at 4.38 and 3/4, down a penny and 3/4. SN closed at 10.51 and 1/4, down 26 and 1/2 cents. SX was down 26 cents at 10.35 and 1/4. WN finished at 5.32 and 3/4, up 8 cents. Products were mixed, July soybean meal closed at 296.40, up $4.50/ton, and July soybean oil closed down the 3.0 cents/lb trading limit at 49.32. Livestock markets were sharply mixed, with June live cattle closing at 211.17, down $2.77, August feeders closing at 295.82, down $6.15, and June hogs closing at 100.70, up $1.85. Feeder cattle had a gap-lower open this morning, while hogs had an outside day higher. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down $1.30-1.40/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 280 points, and the US$ index is down 10-15 points; the S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is near unchanged. Gold futures made new lows for the move but are currently trading $30-40/oz higher.

Spreads closed mixed/lower on Thursday, with corn spreads down a half cent to up 5 and 1/4, and soybean spreads down 5 and 3/4 to up 3/4 of a cent. CN/CU closed at 23 and 1/2, up 5 and 1/4, and SN/SQ closed at 4, up 3/4 of a cent. New contract lows again in the CU/CZ at -13 and 3/4.

We talked about it some this morning, but the aggressive selling in the bean oil space was directly related to policy rumors and discussions over the last 24 hours, as EPA head Lee Zeldin hit the industry with a bit of a 'double whammy'; first, it was rumored that the RVO mandate that has been sought for months by refiners and biofuel producers would be significantly less than the industry desires at a roughly 4.65 billion gallon level. Then on top of that, Zeldin further added fuel to the fire in saying that regardless of the level, the mandate would be decided on over the course of coming months, signaling guidance shouldn't be expected any time soon. Remember that the RVO in question also applies to 2025, and the lack of clarity has caused producers to significantly dial back production operations already in the current calendar year. This is the general reason for the sharp reaction by prices today, and is further illustrated by EIA feedstock usage data which shows soybean oil used for biodiesel and renewable diesel in the first two months of 2025 at 1.23 bil lbs, compared to 1.85 bil lbs of usage in the first two months of 2024.

NOPA soybean crush data for the month of April, though released after most of the carnage had already been occurring, did little to help the situation, as soybean oil stocks came in well above trade expectations. The figure, measured as of April 30th, came in at 1.527 billion lbs, which was up 2% from March but still down 17% from April of last year; this was also the lowest stocks figure for the month of April since 2015. On the crush side, NOPA pegged soybean crush in the month of April at 190.226 mil bu, which was also a new record for the month and up more than 12% from April of last year.

Other news for Thursday included this morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending May 8th, which showed a good round of new crop sales for all three crops, while the old crop corn sales were also above trade expectations. Starting in the old crop, corn sales for the week totaled 1.677 mmt's, with featured buyers being Korea (603,300 mt's), Mexico (314,200 mt's), and Japan (208,000 mt's). Soybean sales totaled 282k mt's, with featured buyers being Egypt (177,100 mt's), and Indonesia (83,300 mt's); unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 184,100 mt's in the week. And lastly, wheat sales for the week totaled just 59k mt's, with the featured buyer being Korea (27,200 mt's); unknown destinations in the week assigned out/rolled/canceled 62k mt's. For new crop sales, corn sales in the week totaled 509k mt's, soybean sales totaled 490k mt's, and wheat sales totaled 746k mt's.

Other than the previously mentioned news this morning regarding deals with Iran and India, news out of the White House was again on the quiet side on Thursday, with President Trump continuing his Middle East tour in the United Arab Emirates and the newswires hush as far as any new developments with China go. Details are a bit murky on the Russia-Ukraine meeting in Tukey, but it sounds like there was possibly a delay to tomorrow. Ukrainian President Zelensky did however mention that if a technical ceasefire could be agreed to with the delegation present that he would skip a meeting with Russian President Putin. Trump told reports in the UAE that he was leaving tomorrow, but did not know for sure where he was going; he added that he was likely returning to DC, but seems to have again left the door open for possibly attending meetings between the two sides.

The Climate Prediction Center released new monthly seasonal forecasts this morning that showed broadly the same forecast as the ones from April for the June/July/August period. On the precip side, forecasts see below to well below normal rainfall in the northwestern quarter of the US, while it also shows drier than normal conditions throughout most of the Plains into southwest Texas. The East Coast is expected to see above average precip potential, while most of the Mississippi River Valley sees equal chances at above or below normal precip. On the temperature side, the entire country expects to see above average warmth in the period, with exceptionally warm weather expected for southwest Texas and also a pocket in the northern part of the four-corner states, and also in the far northeast and Florida.

Short-term weather focus continues to be on a low pressure system spinning through the northern Midwest today and tomorrow, providing rain and potentially severe weather to parts of the Dakota's and Minnesota. As this system moves out to the east this weekend, another one will begin gathering steam in the western US, and is expected to work across the country slightly further to the south than this one, providing rainfall to parts of the southern and south-central Corn Belt that have been inching towards the dry side. Forecasts into the end of the month then show a return to drier conditions, making the precip from these two systems important. Still not a lot new on the temperature forecast, as the west stays cool through the end of this week before warming next week, with the 5-10 day period outlook shows the cooler air being pushed east, while Pacific ridging brings above average temps back to the West Coast.