AM Comments May 13 2025

Posted on May 13 at 07:54

Good morning. Corn and soybean markets are doing a bit of backing and filling this morning to start Tuesday trade, while the wheat market continues to see selling and has again pushed out to new contract lows. Following the excitement from Monday's session, we would expect today's trade to return to the choppier side of things as everyone catches their collective breath and gets a chance to digest the USDA's balance sheets from yesterday. Generally speaking, the report came in on the friendly side of what most had expected, but we see the demand figures that got us there as potentially lofty and would again reiterate that there is a long growing season ahead. On top of this, it is also nearly impossible to predict what will happen over the next several months in terms of trade deals, which could significantly alter the USDA's current outlook. Corn futures to start Tuesday morning are trading 2-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is trading 5-6 cents lower. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down $1-2/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are also trading mixed, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 180 points, and the US$ index is down 20 points; the S&P500 is down 10 points and the NASDAQ is up 10 points. Gold futures are around $20/oz higher.

 

Today's Reports: Monthly Inflation/CPI; API Energy Stocks

 

• Busier delivery slate again for Tuesday, as the CME Group last night assigned 100 contracts of soybean meal, 94 contracts of rice, 67 contracts of corn, 35 contracts of mini Chicago wheat, 8 contracts of full size Chicago wheat, and 3 contracts of KC wheat.

 

• Big data day on Monday, with the USDA releasing it's May WASDE report during market hours and then also releasing weekly crop progress figures after the close. To view our snapshot of the May WASDE figures, please click here. To view our weekly crop progress maps, please click here; we apologize for the delay in our crop progress maps coming out yesterday afternoon, as there were technical difficulties.

 

• The weekly crop progress update showed US corn planting advanced 22% on the week to 62% complete, which compares to 47% last week and the five-year average of 56%; at the state level, MN saw the biggest increase on the week and advanced 31%, while SD gained 30%, WI gained 28%, and IA gained 27%. Soybean planting advanced 18% on the week to 48% complete; MN also led the state level increases here on the week, gaining 30%, while NE gained 28%, and SD and IA each gained 26%.

 

• Wheat data in the weekly update showed winter wheat conditions in the G/EX category improving another 3% to 54% on the week, which compares to 50% in the same week last year; TX was up 10% on the week, OK was up 5% and KS was up 1%. Spring wheat planting advanced 22% on the week to 66% complete.

 

• As a result of the trade progress between the US and China over the weekend, Brazilian soybean premiums at the Paranagua port fell by about 10% on Monday according to cash sources familiar with the matter, reflecting expectations that the Asian country could possibly take more US beans in the coming months than was expected previously.

 

• According to industry data, palm oil stocks in Malaysia in the month of April jumped to a new 6-month high of 1.87 mmt's, which was also up nearly 20% from the March figure. The data also showed production in the month coming in at 1.69 million tons, which was the highest monthly figure since 2015 and was given as the main reason for the build in stocks. Exports were also up nearly 10% from last month to 1.1 mmt's.

 

• A report from France's Ag Ministry released earlier on Tuesday showed soft wheat planted area in the current season falling by about 30k hectares from their previous report to 4.6 mil hectares, which would still be up about 10% from last year. Cron area is seen at 1.48 mil hectares, down nearly 8% from last year and also more than 3% below the five-year average.

 

• Pushed to the back burner a bit on Monday was news that Republican lawmakers had introduced draft text that would be part of the Trump administration's new tax plan that outlined an extension of the much talked about 45Z tax credit for four years through 2031. The proposal also has language that would restrict the credit to only producers of fuel using feedstocks from the US, Canada or Mexico, which would notably exclude stock imports from China or the EU. There is a US House Ways and Means Committee hearing later this afternoon, where the bill will be discussed.

 

• Trade discussions will at least momentarily take the back seat this morning in the equity space, as traders and economists will be tuned into the monthly inflation report that is due out at 7:30am central time this morning. The data is expected to show a 0.3% increase in the consumer price index for the month of April, as tariffs on Chinse goods began to have an affect on prices.

 

• Other news for Tuesday includes President Trump being in Saudi Arabia today to start a four-day swing through the Middle East, and also trade-related headlines from overnight that the low value "de minimis" tariff on Chinese shipments had been reduced from 120% to 54% starting tomorrow, in a further sign of softening relations between Washington and Beijing.

 

• Midwest weather looks to remain in a bit of transitionary period for another day or two this week, as central US ridging begins to subside and give way to a low pressure system that will work across the mid-section of the US Thursday/Friday. The EU model this morning has parts of the Dakota's and MN picking up anywhere from 1-3" by Sunday morning from this system, with some local areas possibly receiving even more than that.

 

• Models then have another system following generally the same path next week, possibly providing an additional 1-3" for similar areas. Key for this second system is that it is seen further south than the one this week, with the models showing it providing precip to parts of NE/KS/MO/IA that are expected to miss out on moisture from the first system. This is the system the week two forecasts are picking up on, and it remains important that the forecast is able to make it into the short term.

 

• Nothing new on the temperature side this morning, as models are still seeing a cold air mass lingering over the central and northern US into next week. Highs in the Dakota's will reach the upper 90's today, and then will struggle to reach the mid-50's by early next week. Also worth mentioning that there are a couple models trying to put snow down in parts of the Dakota's with the cooler temps expected next week, but we are not putting a lot of confidence in a May model run snow forecast.

 

• On the global weather front, eastern Europe and western Russia continue to see above average precip potential over the next 10 days, while western and northern Europe stay dry. China's growing regions look to stay hot but will see on and off precip chances, with the southern and western parts of the country staying wet.