PM Comments May 9 2025
Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Corn and soybean futures were higher to end the week this week, while the wheat market sagged on a further weakening of offers in the Black Sea region. As expected, choppy and low volume were the two main themes throughout, with attention in the ag world almost entirely focused on what might come out of discussions with the Chinese this weekend.
CN ended the week at 4.49 and 3/4, up 2 and 1/4. CZ was up 3 and 1/4 at 4.42. SN finished at 10.51 and 3/4, up 6 and 3/4. SX closed at 10.30 and 1/2, up 5 and 1/2. WN was down 7 and 1/2 cents at 5.21 and 3/4. New contract low at 5.20 and 3/4 for WN. Products ended mixed, July soybean meal closed at 294.10, down 60 cents/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 48.57, up 12 points. Livestock markets ended the week mixed, June live cattle were up 42 cents at 214.67, August feeders were down 95 cents at 300.30, and June hogs were up 40 cents at 97.57. New contract highs again for the fourth time this week in both of the cattle markets. Outside markets are trading mixed, crude oil futures are up around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 150 points, and the US$ index is down around 30 points; the S&P500 is is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 15 points. Inside days for all three of the major stock indices. Gold futures are up around $30/oz.
Spreads closed the week mixed in the corn and mostly higher in the beans; CK/CN closed at -8 and 1/4, up 1/4 of a cent, and SK/SN closed at -7 and 3/4, up a half cent. CN/CU closed at 20 and 1/2, down a half cent, and SN/SQ closed at 4 and 1/2, down 1/4 of a cent. Also new contract lows again in the CU/CZ at -13.
For the week: July corn was down 19 and 1/4 cents; December corn was down 9 and 1/4 cents; July soybeans were down 6 and 1/4 cents; November soybeans were unchanged; July Chicago wheat was down 21 and 1/4 cents; July soybean meal was down $2.80/ton; and July soybean oil was down 0.86 cents/lb.
USDA again announced more daily sales flashes this morning; private exporters reported sales of 288,000 mt's of corn for delivery to Mexico - of the total, 95,100 mt's is for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year and 192,000 mt's is for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year. Exporters also announced sales of 120,000 mt's of soybeans for delivery to Pakistan during the 2025/26 marketing year. As we mentioned yesterday, the sales to Pakistan are intriguing.
Like we mentioned at the top, today was all about position squaring ahead of this weekend's much anticipated discussions between US and Chinese trade officials. It appeared Friday that Trump was maybe taking a more conciliatory tone towards the situation than was seen just 24 hours prior, as news wires reported that he told reporters he was open to a possible reduction in tariffs during this week's talks. Its unclear whether the President meant a reduction by 80% from current levels or if he meant a reduction to 80% from current levels, but either way, the rhetoric was substantially different than the stern "no" he gave a reporter in the Oval Office on Thursday. Otherwise, though there was all sorts of noise and chatter surrounding the topic in the news and on social media on Friday, there isn't a lot substantially new with the situation this afternoon.
Other trade news to wrap up the week includes reports that India has offered to reduce its tariff gap with the US from the current level of 13% down to 4% in exchange for an exemption from President Trump's "current and potential" tariff measures. The US is India's largest trading partner annually, with data showing bilateral trade between the two in 2024 at roughly $129 billion. India currently runs a roughly $45.7 billion trade surplus with the US. Along with the tariff exemptions, India has also recently asked for preferential market access on host of products including gems, jewelry, leather, apparel, textiles, plastics, chemicals, oilseeds, shrimp, and other horticultural products. Sources say a delegation of Indian officials, possibly including trade Minister Piyush Goyal, is expected to visit the US to further discussions later this month.
Aside from trade related points of interest, the May WASDE on Monday and the weather forecasts remain the other main talking points as we go into next week, as we'll finally see the much anticipated first look at the balance sheets for the new crop year. We've laid out trade expectations for the report in more detail in our morning and mid-day comments the last few days, but generally speaking, it is expected that corn ending stocks will be up quite a bit year-over-year, while soybean stocks will be similar to last year. There aren't likely to be a bunch of surprises on the production side, as USDA will use the acreage figures from the March 31st seeding intentions report and the yield figures will likely be on the high end just based on trend. Interesting will be what is done on the demand side, and more specifically exports, with there being almost know way of knowing how Trump's trade war will play out over the rest of this year and into 2026; a deal could be struck tomorrow that produces a vastly different outlook than even what the USDA is planning to release on Monday. And on top of this, and as is the case every year, whatever numbers are printed on Monday are nothing more than a starting point, with there being a plethora of factors between now and fall that will effect market direction; don't become overly fixated with numbers given in May.
As has been the case all week, we continue to have little new to report on the weather forecasts through the weekend and into next week. A bulk of the Midwest, under the influence of high pressure ridging, will see summer-like warmth and little to no precip, while rains will be mostly limited to the far northeast and the southeast and areas along the Gulf. That said, our focus remains on the week two forecasts, which at mid-day on Friday are continuing to show a return to wet conditions for the eastern US beyond mid-month while the west shifts back drier. Key into Monday will be that these rains to start showing up in the 10 day forecasts, as areas with lower soil moisture in the northern Corn Belt will likely be needing a drink by the end of the month amid warm/dry conditions in the meantime.
We hope everybody has a great weekend! Next week looks to likely get started with a bang Sunday evening, as there will be no shortage of headlines between now and the end of the day on Monday; as we always say, prioritize risk management, and don't get caught up in all the noise surrounding the headlines.