AM Comments May 9 2025

Posted on May 09 at 07:01

Good morning. Happy Friday. The late session pop seen in the corn market to end Thursday has spilled over into Friday's session, with both old and new crop futures having spent all of last night trading in the green. The soybean market meanwhile has seen a bit more two-sided trade overnight, and spent the first part of the session trading mostly lower before catching a bid in the middle of the night and working back to the upside. Markets today are likely to feature position squaring as we go into the weekend, with the combination of weather, US-China trade talks, and global geopolitics making it so nobody wants to be caught positioned in the wrong direction with 48+ hours of no trading. Those topics will also likely key price direction early in the first part of next week, as we assume a majority of the focus Sunday evening will be on rhetoric following trade talks between Washington and Beijing that are scheduled for tomorrow. Corn futures to start Friday morning are trading 3-5 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 2-4 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-3 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up around 50 cents/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed/mostly higher, crude oil futures are up $1.10-1.20/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 60 points, and the US$ index is down 20-30 points; the S&P500 is up 15 points and the NASDAQ is up 60 points. Gold futures are up $20-30/oz.

 

Today's Reports: CFTC Commitment of Traders

 

  • The delivery slate from the CME group to wrap up the week included 66 contracts of soybean meal, 17 contracts of corn, 9 contracts of Chicago wheat, and 3 contracts of soybeans.

 

  • StatsCanada released updated quarterly stocks figures yesterday morning, which showed all wheat stocks as of March 31st at 15.421 mmt's, which was above the average trade guess but still down about 1.2% from March 31 last year. Canola stocks were down nearly 40% from last year at 5.869 mmt's, while corn stocks were seen down roughly 13% from last year at 7.197 mmt's.

 

  • Also out late Thursday was the weekly crop progress report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, which showed Argentine soybean harvest progress taking a fairly large jump in the past week of 21% to now be 44.9% complete; the group also raised their production estimate by 1.4 mmt's to 50.0 mmt's. Corn production was maintained at 49.0 mmt's, while harvest progress advanced just 3.6% over the past week to 34.9% complete.

 

  • Monday will also feature the USDA's May WASDE report, which will give traders the first look at balance sheets for the 2025/26 crop season. For corn, production is expected near 15.8 bil bu with an avg yield of 181.1 bu/acre; ending stocks are seen at 2.020 bil bu. For soybeans, production is expected near 4.3 bil bu with an avg yield of 52.5 bu/acre; ending stocks here are seen at 362 mil bu. Lastly for wheat, total production is seen at 1.885 bil bu, while ending stocks are estimated at 863 mil bu.

 

  • Chinese customs data for the month of April showed the country's soybean imports in the month totaling just 6.08 mmt's, which is down nearly 30% from April of last year and was the lowest figure for the month since 2015. Sources familiar cited the now well-known fact that Brazil's harvest was delayed, and also logistical issues that have caused a nearly 3x increase in the amount of time it takes beans to get from ports to crushers. Cumulative imports in 2025 are now seen at 23.19 mmt's, which is down nearly 15% from last year.

 

  • Staying on the subject, sources have also indicated that Chinese officials have signed a letter of intent with exporters in Argentina to purchase some $900 mil worth of soybeans, corn, and veg oil. The deal, which is non-binding, was signed Wednesday in Buenos Aires. China is Argentina's biggest buyer of soybeans typically, but data shows they have not taken any cargoes from the South American country since January this year, and that they have also taken zero corn cargoes in the current year.

 

  • In Europe, Ukraine's Ag Ministry on Thursday said planting progress for the current season had reached 76% complete, which is almost exactly the same as last year. To the west, private French crop group FranceAgriMer indicated some 74% of the country's soft-wheat crop was rated in good or very good condition as of Monday; the group also noted that corn planting had reached 79% complete compared to 53% last year.

 

  • According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending May 3rd were seen at 780k tons, which was up more than 16% on the week prior. Corn shipments at 576k tons were up 29% on the week, and soybean shipments at 174k tons were down 14% on the week. STL barge freight rates were up 64 cents on the week to $14.64/short ton.

 

  • Following Trump's unequivocal "no" when asked whether he would consider lowing tariffs on China as a way to get negotiations going, it is now being reported that the US trade team is weighing a cut to below 60% during this weekend's talks, while sources also say Chinese officials may match the move. Otherwise, there are not a lot of new updates on the situation this morning with talks still scheduled to begin tomorrow.

 

  • While the data slate in the equity world is quiet for Friday, there are a slew of Fed officials slated to give comments following this week's FOMC meeting and subsequent interest rate decision that will possibly drive fringe market action to end the week. Next week, markets will see updated monthly inflation data on Tuesday, with the latest PPI numbers expected on Thursday.

 

  • Last bit of news for Friday, mostly unrelated to the markets, is that the first American ever has been selected to lead the Catholic Church, as Cardinal Robert Prevost (now Pope Leo XIV) was selected on the second day of the conclave to be the successor to Pope Francis, who died in March. While being the first pope technically from the US, Pope Leo also has dual citizenship in Peru, where he spent decades as a missionary before becoming a cardinal.

 

  • Not going to harp a lot on weather this morning, as forecasts are unchanged again from last night. Following warm and dry conditions for a bulk of the Corn Belt through the week next week, models are continuing to indicate a pattern shift back to wetter conditions beyond mid-month, as ridging subsides and a more progressive pattern re-emerges. The EU AI model is also continuing to try and bring in well below normal air temps to the eastern US in the 10-15 day period, but is still not being joined by the EU or GFS operational models.

 

  • Have a great weekend! Enjoy the warmer weather, and stay safe for those who are still in the fields!