PM Comments May 6 2025
Good afternoon. Corn and soybean markets saw another day of mostly lower closes on Tuesday, with July corn finishing in the green for just the 5th time in the last 16 sessions, while July soybeans traded to their lowest level in nearly a month and finished the day resting on a number of support levels. The ongoing lack of fresh market moving news has caused prices to drift, with it remaining the case that the bull camp needs a fundamental spark to re-engage.
CN closed Tuesday at 4.55, up a penny and 1/4. CZ was down a penny and 3/4 at 4.41 and 1/4. New lows for the move in both. SN finished the day at 10.41 and 1/4, down 4 and 1/4. SX was down 3 cents at 10.19 and 1/4. WN closed at 5.36, up 4 and 3/4. Products were lower, July soybean meal closed at 293.0, down $2.50/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 48.35, down 38 points. Livestock markets were mixed, June live cattle closed at 213.67, up 2 cents, August feeders closed at 299.20, up 30 cents, and June hogs closed at 97.57, down $1.42. New contract highs in both of the cattle markets, while hogs gapped lower on the open this morning. Outside markets are trading mixed, crude oil futures are up $1.80-1.90/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 280 points, and the US$ index is down 50-60 points; the S&P500 is down 20 points and the NASDAQ is down 90 points. Outside day lower for the $ index. Gold futures gapped higher on the open and finished the day up around $100/oz.
Spreads had a mixed day, corn spreads finished the day down 3/4 of a cent to up 3 and 3/4, and soybean spreads finished a penny and a half lower to a penny and 1/4 higher. CK/CN closed at -8, down 1/4 of a cent, and SK/SN closed at -6 and 1/2, up a penny. New contract low in the CU/CZ again at -11 and 1/2.
There was once again little of note in terms of trade deals or other tariff developments that would influence price direction in the ag space today. President Trump met Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House, but the headlines from the meeting didn't offer anything market-moving and largely illustrated expected rhetoric from the two who have been at odds since Carney was appointed in March. What news there was came early in the talks, as Trump told reporters there would be a "very big announcement" coming either Thursday, Friday or Monday before he left for a planned trip to the Middle East. The President said "it'll be one of the most important announcements that has been made in many years about a certain subject, a very important subject." The only other detail he gave was that the announcement was positive, but offered nothing else. We have little insight or thought as to what this might be, with possibilities ranging from a trade deal with China to a resolution to the war in Ukraine; bottom line, stay aware of elevated headline risk the back half of the week. Other highlights from the White House meeting included a discussion on USMCA, as well as the China situation, automobile manufacturing, and Trump's repeated assertations over Canada becoming the 51st US state, which Carney reiterated would not happen.
We will go rapid fire on the auxiliary news front, as there were several other items throughout the day that were more headline type stories without a lot of detail. Starting with the ongoing RVO situation, or lack thereof, EPA head Lee Zeldin on Tuesday told reporters to expect a mandate announcement within the next two weeks. President Trump told reporters that US would stop bombing Houthi targets in Yemen after the group vowed to stop targeting shipping lanes in the Red Sea; however, Houthi spokespeople denied the claim and said Trump's statement was inaccurate, before later adding that they would evaluate the halt of aggression on the US side first. Amid ongoing rising tensions between the two countries, Pakistan's Defense Minister said on Tuesday that conflict between his country and India was "imminent", and added that he would destroy anything India built to try and stop the flow of water. Lastly, Chinese news agencies reported that President Xi Jinping was ready to work with leaders from the EU on mutually improving relations between the two sides amid ongoing friction with the US.
Ag-specific news for Tuesday included the monthly census export update, which showed data for the month of March that actually leaned a touch bearish for corn and soybeans, as it was well below the USDA's regular weekly export inspection figures for the month. For corn, census exports in March were seen at 289 mil bu's, which was up from February's 238 mil bu figure but well below the inspection figure of 328 mil bu. Census soybean exports in the month were seen at 129 mil bu, which similarly was up from February's 115 mil bu, but was also behind the USDA's number at 146 mil bu. Of note, part of the difference is the result of USDA data being on a weekly basis as opposed to monthly, which in the case of March actually added two more days of export data to the totals; census figures would still be smaller without this, but to a lesser degree. For the total marketing year, census corn exports are seen just over 95 mil bu above the USDA inspection figure, while census soybean exports are seen 19 mil bu above the USDA. For wheat, census exports in March were seen at 66 mil bu, compared to 64.8 mil last month and the USDA's March figure of 76 mil bu; cumulative marketing year census exports are just 200k bu behind the USDA figure. Other notable items in the export report included March ethanol exports at 196 mil gallons, as well as soybean oil exports at 156k tons, and soybean meal exports at 1.59 mil tons; all three figures were up on both the previous month and the same month last year.
Midwest weather forecasts were once again little changed on Tuesday, with the models continuing to be in good agreement on high pressure ridging over the north-central US being the dominant feature for at least the next 10-15 days. This will provide mostly wide-open planting windows for the north and northwestern Corn Belt, while adding additional precip to the southern US and areas along the Gulf Coast. Week two forecasts show rains returning to the Canadian Prairies into the back half of the month but show drier conditions remaining in place throughout most of the Corn Belt and into the southern US. Extended models also remain little changed on temperatures, with above average warmth remaining in place through most of the country over the next two weeks.