PM Comments May 1 2025
Good afternoon. Happy May Day. Markets saw another day of choppy price action with volume taking a dip for the May Day holiday on Thursday, as today it was the wheat and soybean markets that closed higher, while corn futures were lower in the old crop but also higher in the new. Headline news was again largely limited throughout the session, with it seeming to be a wait and see game for either a trade deal announcement or the USDA's May WASDE report that is due out a week from Monday.
CK finished the day Thursday at 4.64 and 1/4, down 3 cents. CN was down 3 and 1/4 at 4.72 and 1/4. SK closed at 10.40 and 1/4, up 5 and 1/2 cents. SN was up 5 and 3/4 at 10.50 and 1/4. Outside days higher for both of the bean contracts. WN closed at 5.31, up 1/4 of a cent. Inside day for wheat. Products were mixed, July soybean meal closed at 294.30, down $3.70/ton, and July soybean oil closed at 49.70, up 0.73 cents/lb. Like the beans, bean oil also had an outside day higher. Livestock markets saw mixed trading on Thursday, June live cattle finished the day at 209.65, up $1.25, August feeders closed at 294.45, down 57 cents, and June hogs closed at 98.17, down a dime. Inside day for live cattle, outside day for feeders, and an inside day for hogs. Outside markets are trading mostly higher, crude oil futures reversed course earlier this morning and are now around $1/bbl higher, the Dow Jones index is up 280 points, and the US$ index is up 70-80 points; the S&P500 is up 70 points and the NASDAQ is up 330 points. Gold futures are down $80-90/oz and had a gap-lower open last night.
Spreads were mixed/mostly lower, corn spreads finished Thursday up a quarter cent to down 4 and 1/4, and soybean spreads finished up 2 and 1/4 to down a half cent. CK/CN closed at -8, up 1/4, and SK/SN closed at -10, down 1/4. Fairly small ranges for both. New contract low for CU/CZ at -10 and 3/4.
Biofuels were the main topic of conversation in our afternoon wire on Wednesday and were again one of the main topics today, though for a different reason. For Thursday, there were again rumors circulating regarding an alleged RVO announcement, though details were hard to come by and we have seen no other word on the matter as of this writing this afternoon. Soybean oil futures though continue to be ultra-sensitive to the news, or any talk of such news, and reacted accordingly again today. Amid what are likely to be lower exports in the coming crop year due to renewed trade tensions with the biggest buyer of US beans, China, it is critically important to the domestic demand side of the balance sheet that some sort of volume mandate is agreed upon before fall. For this reason, we would expect that the sensitivity in this market to any policy related headlines likely stays significantly elevated in the short-term.
Though the USDA did not announce any new daily sales flashes this morning for the first day since Monday, they did release regular weekly export sales data for the week ending April 24th. The numbers hit trade expectations for all three crops, but new crop corn sales were better than the trade had expected. Old crop corn sales in the week were seen at 1.014 mmt's, with the featured buyer being Mexico at 451,400 mt's; Colombia booked 166,200 mt's, and unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 469,900 mt's. New crop sales totaled 244,700 mt's, with again the bulk of this going to Mexico. Old crop soybean sales in the week were seen at 428k mt's, with the featured buyer being China at 139,400 mt's. New crop soybean sales totaled just 50k mt's, and were all to Mexico. Lastly for wheat, old crop sales in the week were seen at 72k mt's, with the featured buyer being Thailand at 58k mt's; unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 166,400 mt's. New crop sales totaled 238k mt's, with Korea being the biggest buyer at 58k mt's.
Other ag-specific data for Thursday included the monthly Fats and Oils report and Grain Crushings report from the USDA, which were both released after the markets closed this afternoon. Starting with the Fats and Oils report, the data showed US soybean crush in the month of March at 207 mil bu, which was well above the NOPA estimate released earlier in April, which showed the March figure at 195 mil bu; this was also up 9% February and up 2% from March of last year. The report also showed US soybean oil stocks data as of March 31st, which came in at 2.368 bil lbs; this was up 8% from February but down 12% from March of last year. Switching to the Grain Crushings report, data here showed corn used for ethanol in the month of March at 454 mil bu, which was up 8% from the February figure but down 4% from March of last year. Total corn consumption in the month was seen at 504 mil bu, which similarly was up 8% on the month but down 4% from last year. To view the Fats and Oils report, please click here, and to view the Grain Crushings report, please click here.
The weather story for Thursday remains similar to that seen throughout the week this week, with the forecast showing continued thunderstorm activity throughout the mid-south and south-central US for the rest of the day and into the weekend, with additional sporadic thunderstorm activity seen to start next week. The week two forecasts are still in agreement on a drier pattern emerging beyond next week, but the 5-10 day forecasts in the meantime have shifted slightly wetter. The southern Plains look to also remain abnormally wet for this time of year, as the higher pressure ridge providing dryness and warmth to the eastern US allows Gulf moisture to come around into Texas/Oklahoma/Colorado/New Mexico. Five day temperature maps show cooler temps for the mid-section of the country through the weekend before above average temps return to the north in the 5-10 day period and to the whole of the country in the 10-15 day period.
For the global forecast, most of Europe and the Black Sea region has trended wetter in the 10-day period, but there continues to be dryness concerns throughout much of China's ag belt, with temperatures here also continuing to be well above average. In South America, heavy rains are being forecast for the driest areas of far southern Brazil, but dry conditions are in the forecast for most of the ag areas here. And lastly in Argentina, light showers are expected through the southeastern growing regions over the next 10 days, while areas to the west look to remain on the dry side.