AM Comments April 29 2025
Good morning. Markets are seeing a bit of classic turn-around-Tuesday action to start this morning with soybeans correcting yesterday's gains and wheat correcting yesterday's losses; the corn market is again lower, but is at least several cents off yesterday's lows. Aside from expectedly good planting progress evidenced in Monday's latest crop progress report, there just isn't a lot new again this morning in the way of fundamentals that would push prices in either direction. The ongoing situation with China has, for the most part, shut off the speculative side of the trade, and until something is resolved on that front, we would assume volume and open interest stay below where they would be otherwise. And on the farmer side, the continued mix of rain and sun has allowed for good progress to be made in the fields in recent weeks, which has limited the trading on their part. Corn futures to start Tuesday trade are 1-2 cents lower, soybean futures are 5-7 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is 4-5 cents higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is up around $1.50/ton, and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down around $1/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 170 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points; the S&P500 is near unchanged and the NASDAQ is down 40 points. Gold futures are $20-30/oz lower.
Today's Reports: Monthly JOLTs Jobs Data; API Energy Stocks
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress report showed corn planting as of Sunday the 27th at 24% complete, compared to 12% last week and the five-year average of 22%. IL went from 7% to 16%, IA went from 18% to 34%, and IN went from 2% to 10%. Of note, IL is 10% behind its five-year average. Corn emergence for the week was seen at 5%, compared to 2% last week and 4% average.
- Soybean planting was seen at 18% complete, compared to 8% last week and the five-year average of 12%. IN is even with its five-year average at 10% complete and KY is 2% behind its average at 16% complete, otherwise, every other state is either at or ahead of average.
- The winter wheat crop was rated 49% in the G/EX category on the week, up 4% from last week and equal to the reading seen in the same week last year. The crop was also estimated at 27% headed, up from 15% last week. Spring wheat planting was seen at 30% complete, while emergence was seen at 5%. To view our crop progress maps, please click here.
- Chinese media on Monday reported that around 40 Brazilian ships carrying soybeans had docked at the country's Zhoushan port in the month of April, which would be up nearly 50% from the same month last year. The source said the port was projected to unload nearly 700k mt's of Brazilian beans this month, which would be up more than 30% from last year.
- Also out of China overnight, the country's Ag Minister said that he expects total grain use in feed consumption in the country to fall to around 60% by 2030, while soybean meal usage was expected to be reduced to about 10%. The Minister also said he expects a more than 7% drop in feed consumption per kilogram of animal in standardized farming by 2030 as well.
- We briefly touched on this yesterday afternoon, but the Trump administration announced on Monday a 20-day waiver allowing nationwide sales of E15 ethanol blends. E15 is currently legal for sale in all states besides CA, and it is expected that the waiver will be extended several times to get it to cover the entire summer, despite the initial 20-day timeline. While a year-round mandate at the federal level is still desired, the industry sees the waivers as a win.
- Sources familiar with the matter say the CME Group is planning to launch a new Black Sea wheat futures contract in May after trading in a previously offered contract was suspended following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The contract would be tied to wheat prices at Romanian and Bulgarian ports, and will be cash settled based on assessments published by the Argus media group.
- Liberal Party leader Mark Carney won Canada's Monday election by a narrow margin, giving the party control over parliament for the fourth straight election. Opposition Pierre Poilievre had gained momentum in recent weeks on ideas that he would be a better option to lower living costs and improve standards, but Carney was able to scratch out just enough votes to retain his position nonetheless.
- The Trump administration announced on Monday that it was planning to try and reduce the impact of new automobile tariffs by lifting some duties on foreign parts in cars made in the US according to sources, and also by trying to keep tariffs on foreign made vehicles from compounding on top of each other.
- NOAA's Storm Prediction Center for Monday showed 110 total reports of hail, with most being near the MN/IA border; there were also 2 tornado reports for Monday, in MN and WI. Satellite data shows rainfall in the area totaled 0.1" to 1" generally speaking, with some locally heavier totals further to the north. Otherwise, the bulk of the Midwest to the south saw just spotty streaks of storms, and was dry for the most part.
- For Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center sees continued severe weather risk in a fairly large corridor stretching from TX/OK all the way into the northeast; convective activity will it make very hard to predict exact rainfall totals/locations but the EU model this morning is calling for anywhere from a couple tenths to 2" for this area between now and Friday morning. Additional rains are then possible through the weekend and early next week, before a high pressure ridge moves into the southeast and brings drier/warmer conditions with it into the end of next week.