AM Comments April 25 2025
Good morning. Happy Friday. Grain markets are quietly higher to start Friday trading at the CBOT, with soybean oil again being the upside leader and having extended again to new rally highs on ideas that India's import restrictions on the seed oil could be lifted as part of a new trade deal. The news has spot futures currently up more than 5% from the lows made early yesterday, which has helped to pull the soybean market above chart-based resistance also. Key for today for the bull side of the aisle is that May beans close above 10.50 mark going into the weekend, with a close above yesterday's high at 10.55 being an even better sign for next week. Otherwise, we expect today's trade to remain on the choppy side, with risk-adjustment ahead of another potentially headline-filled weekend to be the theme for the day. Corn futures to start Friday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is up 4-5 cents. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 80-90 points. Outside markets are also mixed, crude oil futures are down 70-80 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 140 points and the US$ index is up 20-30 points; the S&P500 is down 5 points and the NASDAQ is down 15 points. Gold futures are continuing to consolidate and are down $30-40/oz this morning.
Today's Reports: CFTC Commitment of Traders
- Despite good weekly progress over the past several days, soybean harvest in Argentina continues to lag both last year and average, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, in their weekly report, showing just 14.5% of the crop harvested as of Wednesday; corn harvest was seen advancing to 29.7% complete, as drier conditions allowed for good progress of both over the past week. Conditions were mostly steady for both crops, but soybeans did see a 6% shift from normal to the good/excellent category.
- The USDA's monthly cold storage report, released yesterday afternoon, showed total red meat supplies in freezers as of March 31st at 870.25 mil lbs, which is down just over 1% from last month but down more than 4% from the same month last year. Beef supplies at 426.88 mil lbs were down 2% on the month but up 1% on the year, and pork supplies at 422.25 mil lbs were down less than 0.5% on the month and down 9% from last year.
- Also out from the USDA yesterday was the monthly livestock slaughter report, which showed total US red meat production in the month of March at 4.42 bil lbs, up 5% from February and up 1% from March of last year; beef production was up 2% on the year at 2.15 bil lbs, and pork production was up just marginally from last year at 2.25 bil lbs. Cattle slaughter in the month totaled 2.48 mil head, while hog slaughter totaled 10.41 mil head.
- The European Commission, in a monthly update, lowered their estimate of the EU's total grain production figure for the 2025/26 season from 280.7 mmt's last month to 280.3 mmt's now; while down on the month, the figure is still nearly 10% above last year, and also more than 3% ahead of the recent five-year average. Soft wheat production accounted for half of the cuts, while corn and barely production estimates were left unchanged.
- Staying in that part of the world, Ukraine's Ag Minister on Friday said that its country's farmers have sown just 2 million hectares of grains as of Thursday, which is down almost 20% from the same day last year due to unusually cold and wet weather throughout the month of April. The country's state meteorologists have said recently that soil moisture reserves throughout most of Ukraine's growing regions were sufficient or optimal, but the crop still needs to get in the ground.
- Lastly out of Europe, French soft wheat ratings in the week ending April 21st were seen at 74% good or very good, which is down 1% from the week prior, but still up more than 10% from the same time last year. FranceAgriMer, the group that does the ratings, said in a note that weather is forecast to deteriorate in the west over the next few days, with risks of heavy rains and flooding present.
- According to the USDA, barge shipments down the Mississippi River in the week ending April 19th totaled 469k tons, which was down nearly 17% from the week prior; corn shipments were down 17% at 313k tons, and soybean shipments were down 34% at 123k tons. STL barge freight rates declined $1.92 on the week to $13.93/short ton.
- In the latest on the ongoing trade situation, Chinese officials overnight said they were considering suspending the 125% tariff currently imposed on some US imports of goods like medical equipment, industrial chemicals and airplane leases due to rising economic pressures. News reports also mentioned that the US and South Korea had made progress on a trade package aimed at removing new tariffs from the US before the current pause ends in July.
- Looking ahead to next week, Monday marks the day of Canada's federal election, where voters will head to the polls to decide between current Prime Minister Mark Carney, who's popularity has risen since being appointed in March, and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre. Carney's liberal party had been gaining in the polls, but recently started to slide again as trade war fears became secondary to fears of rising inflation and high living costs, which were a major gripe during the end of former PM Justin Trudeau's tenure.
- Midwest weather forecasts again trended wetter in the mid-south and southern Midwest over the last 24 hours, which if accurate, is going to add to concerns regarding planting progress in these areas as we get into May. The EU model now sees an additional 2-4" of precip through an area from E TX to the Northeast through the end of the next week, while these areas have already seen upwards of 1-2" in places over the last few days.
- Week two forecasts are continuing to try and bring in a drier pattern for most of the Midwest beyond the first few days of May, but confidence in this shift is lessening due to the inability so far of the drier forecast to make its way into the short term runs. On the temp side, models are still trying to bring in some pockets of brief cooler air next week, but overall, the pattern remains one above average daytime highs for most all of the country into the second week of May.
- Have a good and safe weekend!