AM Comments April 24 2025
Good morning. It would appear markets are stuck on repeat this week, as the CBOT is once again mixed with the grain markets near unchanged and the soy complex higher to start Thursday trade. Aside from ongoing discussions regarding the US-China trade relationship, the news cycle has been slow this week which has produced sideways price action that we would largely expect to continue through today and tomorrow as the weekend nears. And while rhetoric between Washington and Beijing appears to be improving, we do not anticipate any sort of trade deal in the short term; China has made it apparent they do not intend to be a major grain importer this year from any destination, and they don't need US soy until South America's supplies run out usually in late summer/early fall. That said, it appears we could be in for a long several months of headline trading and choppy price action with not a lot of measurable change occurring. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-2 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-5 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat markets is trading unchanged to a penny higher. Products are mixed, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are mostly mixed; crude oil futures are up 80-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is down 190 points, and the US$ index is down 40-50 points. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both 5-10 points lower. Gold futures are continuing their choppy trade also, and are back up $50-60/oz this morning after dropping more than 6% from all-time highs in the last two sessions.
Today's Reports: Weekly Export Sales; Weekly Jobless Claims; Monthly Durable Goods Orders; USDA Monthly Cold Storage
- This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending April 17th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 800k-1.3 mil mt's, soybean sales in a range of 200k-600k mt's, and wheat sales in a range of (150k)-200k mt's. New crop sales are seen between 0-100k mt's for corn, 0-200k mt's for soybeans, and 100k-300k mt's for wheat.
- In response to the numerous headlines regarding trade talks between the US and China on Wednesday, a spokesperson from China's Commerce Ministry said there were currently no discussions happening on a trade deal, and that the US should "remove all unilaterally imposed tariffs on China" if it wants those discussions to occur. The spokesperson added any reports regarding progress on talks were "groundless".
- The head of Brazilian soy lobby Abiove on Wednesday said he was optimistic that a case pending in Brazil's Supreme Court would bring about positive change to the nation's soy moratorium, which is a law that was enacted in 2008 that banned sales of soy from fields in the Amazon that had recently been deforested. States have introduced legislation that would remove tax incentives for those who adhere to the moratorium, which the working group that enforces it says is unconstitutional.
- Egypt's Supply Minister said on Thursday that he sees wheat imports in the 2025-26 season falling to 4.5 million tons, which would be down from the 4.8 million tons of imports that have been seen so far in the current season that ends at the end of June. He added that current stocks were sufficient through the middle of July.
- The Fed's Beige Book for April, that was released yesterday, showed the US economy largely remained stable in the month, which somewhat contradicted broader fears of recession. Economic activity was seen flat to slightly positive, while labor markets had a steady but cautious tone. Furthermore, inflationary price increases were labeled as modest to moderate, while the term inflation itself saw fewer mentions than in previous reports.
- President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky again butted heads on Wednesday, this time seemingly over Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Zelensky said it was against Ukraine's constitution to recognize Russian occupation there, to which Trump responded was inflammatory and "not even a point of discussion." He added that a peace deal was "very close" but that he had to get Putin and Zelensky to agree to stop the fighting.
- Rains have begun falling across the western Corn Belt and southeastern US overnight last night and into this morning, with models expecting rainfall in some capacity through a majority of the eastern half of the US to continue through the end of the week and into the weekend. Models are in better agreement today on locations/amounts than earlier in the week, though the EU still sees more pockets on the 1+" side than the GFS model does.
- The wet pattern is then seen mostly continuing through the first half of next week, with drier conditions then expected to emerge for most of the Midwest the back half of next week and into the first week of May. 5-10 day temperature outlooks now show a small pocket of cooler air possible from a low pressure trough in northwest TX the back half of next week, but otherwise, temps look to continue running average to above average for most of the country the rest of April and into May.