AM Comments April 23 2025
Good morning. Rinse and repeat across the commodity space this morning, as Wednesday trade has started nearly exactly how Tuesday's trade did; the soy complex is higher along with most of the outside markets, while the feed grains of corn and wheat have been unable to get much going overnight and are both near unchanged. Following a slow news day yesterday, the case remains that price direction in the short term will be a product of a combination of planting progress and White House headlines, with the unpredictability of the latter continuing to give traders fits on a near-daily basis. A new fundamental spark is needed to move markets one way or the other, and until that happens, we would expect choppy/sideways trading to mostly continue barring new headlines from President Trump. Corn futures to start Wednesday are unchanged to a penny lower, soybean futures are up 4-6 cents, and the Chicago wheat market is also unchanged to a penny lower. Products are in the green, soybean meal is up around $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 30-40 points. Outside markets are also mostly higher, crude oil futures are up 50-60 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 700 points, and the US$ index is up 30 points; the S&P500 is up 120 points and the NASDAQ is up 500 points. Gold futures gapped lower last night and are down $70-80/oz this morning.
Today's Reports: EIA Weekly Ethanol Production/Energy Stocks
- This morning's weekly ethanol production report for the week ending April 18th is expected to show production for the week in a range of 0.969-1.030 mil bbls, while stocks are seen in a range of 26.40-26.96 mil bbls. The downturn in production over the past couple weeks is mostly seasonal, with plants taking time for maintenance as the weather turns.
- US Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, on Monday announced that the USDA would be releasing a $341 million aid package to support farmers and rural communities facing economic pressures and struggling from the effects of natural disasters. The announcement showed the funding would be spread across several programs, including direct farmer payments, disaster relief, and rural development initiatives.
- According to a weekly report from the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, stocks of hard spring wheat stored in warehouses in Wisconsin and Minnesota totaled 18.115 mil bu in the week ending April 20th, which is up nearly 40% from the 13.202 mil bu seen in the same week last year.
- On the global veg-oil front, sources say has India has restarted purchases of palm oil recently after high prices caused refiners to switch purchases to cheaper soybean oil recently. According to local industry members, crude palm oil is currently priced around $1,050/ton, while crude soyoil is priced at about $1,100/ton. Data shows Indian palm oil imports over the past 5 months have averaged around 314k tons, while imports for April are expected to reach 350k tons; in 2024, monthly imports for the year averaged more than 750k tons.
- The EU's Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit (MARS) continues to see good yield potential throughout most of Europe in the coming season despite what it described as dryness concerns in a lot of ag areas in France, Germany and Poland; they added that abundant rainfall in southern Europe had offset some of these concerns, but that dryness in central and northern Europe would need monitoring. Wheat, barely and rapeseed yields are currently projected to be above the five-year averages.
- Equity markets are higher this morning as a result of somewhat conciliatory remarks from President Trump yesterday evening on both China and also Fed Chair Powell. Starting with the latter, Trump said he had no plans to fire Powell despite his frustration with the central bank's refusal to cut interest rates; and on China, Trump said he would be "very nice" to them in any negotiations, and that he would drop tariff levels if the two sides could reach an agreement.
- As has been speculated for some time now, Elon Musk said on Tuesday that he planned to significantly cut the time he would be spending with the Trump administration beginning next month, which would seem to coincide with the end of his 130-day temporary government employee status. It is unclear in what capacity Musk will be involved with DOGE beyond May, but President Trump has said repeatedly that he would be welcomed for as long as he'd like.
- Satellite data shows just light/scattered precip through mostly the central and northern Midwest on Tuesday, while parts of central TX and areas along the Gulf Coast and through the mid-south also saw measurable precip. Forecasts didn't show a lot of change overnight from yesterday, though the GFS is better aligned with the EU model on precip locations over the next 5 days; differences remain in amounts though, as the EU model continues to see heavier totals through the mid-south and also the northwestern Midwest than what the GFS does.
- The extended forecast has begun to turn drier into the first week of May for most of the Midwest, but is keeping wetter than normal conditions present in the southeast and into TX. On the temperature side, models continue to show above average warmth likely for a majority of the country through the rest of April and into May.
- Additional precip is expected through most of southern and central Brazil through the rest of this week and into the weekend, while Argentina continues to see limited rain potential throughout most of the country. Temperature forecasts have trended warmer for both, with highs seen some 4-6 degrees C above average through the weekend and into next week.