AM Comments April 22 2025
Good morning. Markets at the Board of Trade are seeing classic turn-around-Tuesday price action to start this morning, with the soy complex up about the same amount it was down yesterday and the feed grain markets trading unchanged to slightly lower. Outside markets are also bouncing a bit after the route seen on Monday, but broader concerns regarding the relationship between President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell and what said relationship might mean for future monetary policy remains front and center for most investors and economists and will continue to impact trading in the short term. Otherwise, a further improvement in Midwest weather into the back half of this week looks to keep the attention of the farmer side of the trade, with fieldwork taking priority over marketing. Corn futures to start Tuesday are trading 1-3 cents lower, soybean futures are trading 4-6 cents higher, and the Chicago wheat market is down 2-3 cents. Products are higher, soybean meal is up $1/ton, and soybean oil is up 40-50 points. Outside markets are also higher, crude oil futures are up around 90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 290 points, and the US$ index is up 10-20 points; the S&P500 is up 40 points and the NASDAQ is up 140 points. Gold futures are up another $40-50/oz and have again made new contract and all-time highs overnight.
Today's Reports: API Energy Stocks
- Yesterday afternoon's weekly crop progress report from the USDA showed corn planting progress ahead of trade expectations at 12% complete, compared to 4% last week and the five-year average of 10%. At the state level, IA jumped from 2% to 18%, IL went from 1% to 7%, and MO went from 9% to 33%; IN is just 2% planted.
- Soybean planting was seen at 8% complete, compared to 2% last week and the five-year average of 5%. At the state level, IA is 11% planted, IL is 10% planted and IN is just 3% planted; most of the soybean planting progress continues to be in the Delta region and southern Midwest, with MO being the furthest Corn Belt state along at 15% planted.
- Winter wheat conditions fell another 2% in the G/EX category this week to 45%, which is also behind last year's 50% reading as of the same date. Spring wheat planting advanced 10% on the week to 17% complete, compared to the five-year average of 12%. To view our crop progress maps, please click here.
- The USDA also released its monthly Chicken and Eggs report yesterday afternoon, which showed US egg production in the month of March at 8.63 billion, which is down nearly 8% from the same month last year. Laying hens were also down nearly 8% at 351.1 million.
- China has warned other countries against inking trade deals with the US at it's expense, accusing the US of "unilateral bullying"; President Trump has previously said he plans to isolate China economically by signing deals with countries that would give them added benefit for not doing business with China. The ongoing situation continues to be reason for both the rally in gold (seen as a safe-haven asset) to all-time highs and also the decline in the US$ index to its lowest level in years.
- Other trade related news for Tuesday includes reports from officials that "significant progress" had been made between the US and India on trade relations following talks between Vice President JD Vance and Indian PM Narendra Modi on Monday. Sources say the two sides have finalized the reference terms for negotiations on a "new and modern trade agreement", and have planned additional discussions in the future.
- US weather forecasts into the end of the month are continuing to offer a good mix of rain and sunshine, which should be near-ideal for early planted corn and soybean crops. Both the EU and the GFS models see additional rain chances of 1-2" through the mid-south and into the southern Corn Belt over the next week, but are in disagreement to the north and northwest; the EU is wetter and sees similar totals into IA and MN, while the GFS keeps the heavier rains in KS/NE. The EU is also wetter in the eastern Corn Belt.
- South of the equator, recent rains through Brazil's growing regions have likely been enough to get many fields to the finish line in another month or so, while forecasts continue to show additional precip over the next 5 days. Temperatures look to remain above average through most of the region, but there is little concern amid good moisture levels in most places. Argentina also looks to stay on the warm side, and will likely see little to no precip through at least the next week.